Wednesday 8 June 2016
I love it when the press get in a lather. It is a most amusing spectacle. Even on the old fashioned TV thingy's, seeing the pundits justify what they said yesterday was only a dream is most entertaining.
Of course, a funny thing is actually happening this week. With the referendum coming closer some people are starting to make up their minds. In polls, it seems there is a small break to the Leave side so far and this has meant "PANIC! DISASTER" for London liberals/Civil Service/Government etc.
However, the same thing happened in the Scottish referendum. The first load of don't knows decided to break for Independence and the polls narrowed a lot. It was in the balance on the day but ended up with a decent Remain win. Perhaps the nationalist waverer's are more determined than the "Remainers" resigned to their fate?
Nothing happening now strikes me as different, except that a sinking of boat load of immigrants off the Kent coast the day before might push Leave over the line - events, dear boy, events.
As for myself, after long period of shame, I am about to post a bet. A few days ago I bought a few quid of USP3 (I manage to miss the big leg up of course!). This is an ETF long-short bet on the $/£. My reasoning is the Pound will struggle for the next 2 weeks as Brexit is now looking close and won't be settled until the day. Plan is to sell out of the position come what may on June 23rd. Thus far a pointless 1.5% up - but still good to have some money on the result. Of course if Brexit looks like it is coming home then it is a good one to leave on as I guesstimate there will be an 8-10% spike devaluation over the next week or so after the result.