Wednesday 16 November 2016

What Brexit?

In more Brexit good news, Google has signed up London to be the HQ of its European operations and this will create 3000 jobs by 2020 in London.

So they join Apple in backing the UK post-Brexit with expansion.

I really don't think we can underestimate the value of this. Lots of start-up Fintech companies have been thinking about moving to Berlin. Certainly the Germans want them there. Fintech is the future of financial services as the Big Banks suffer from strangulation by both regulation and zero-interest rates. Pensions funs too, long a source of wealth for their employees and owners at our expense, will not last in their current form once technology companies start empowering people to 'take control' of their own pension pots.

So having a tech base is really key to the future of the Country and the investment of the world's two best know companies provides good mood music.

Brexit, it seems, is going to take a long time to work out and to an extent the effect of this is to massively downgrade its impact in the eyes of businesses making long-term decisions; of course, this is the opposite of what hyped-up media like to report. Not understanding, business they think long-term uncertainty is bad. Of course this is not the case as no business really plans ahead for more than 5 years tops - anything that wont have an impact within 3-5 years is discounted. The things that really bother management is what is happening tomorrow and in the next quarter and it decreases in importance from there.

So, here we are, several months in, still no impact of Brexit or sign of it bar the currency effect which is a net positive anyway? Yet you wont read or hear this from many people - such is the power of cognitive dissonance.


Anonymous said...

@ I really don't think we can underestimate the value of this

Oh I think you can !!!

Silver surfer said...

Thank god the moaning is over and we can take a long hard look at what's over the horizon and apply it to our pension funds.

1. Companies that use the UK for an export springboard to the EU may want to take their screwdriver plants away - so a sell note

2. Companies which are heavily influenced by EU legislation - horses for courses. Easyjet may suffer but perhaps not Ryanair.

3. Those with North American or Asian markets - buy.

4. Banks - why would you ever buy, Brexit or not.

Portfolio in some need to adjustment but not a lot.

dearieme said...

AgitProp gets CogDiss. Good.

Blue Eyes said...

Good news.

When I saw the headline I chuckled at the idea that there was any other sensible choice. The only other European cities attractive enough to the relevant "talent" are probably Paris and Berlin. Berlin might think it can attract startups, but one only has to see what the Berlin authorities are doing to Airbnb to see what happens to a staryup when it actually disrupts anything. Paris? Don't make me laugh. The French would need to invent a whole new profession with accompanying qualifications and regulations first. And then there would be riots as soon as anyone got out-competed.

The UK is one of a handful of sensible places to invest in Europe, whatever the outcome of the leaving discussions.

I also note (can you see the scenery moving?) that Merkel has dropped a massive hint that there can be some compromise on free movement. It may be too late for the UK to stay in a reformed EU, but it hasn't taken long for the goalposts to start shifting has it?

Anonymous said...

CU, do we know how the EU Transaction Tax is progressing.? To hell with "moving to Berlin" is it does.

CityUnslicker said...

EU transaction tax is going at a glacial pace as, France apart, there are not too many takers for it. No one to veto, but enthusiasm is lacking - no doubt it will come as a bolt out of the blue eventually in 2019 or something...

Phil said...

Note also that Google had already committed itself to the huge set of new offices it’s having built in London several years ago. Having to pull out of that deal would have been quite painful - prime London office space does not come cheap.

And as you say, where else are they going to find that many techies & sales staff in the EU? Plus the office space to accommodate them all. Never mind the fact that the biggest Google clients (vis. the Ad companies) all have a heavy London presence.

No, Google isn’t going anywhere, Brexit or no Brexit.

Electro-Kevin said...

Yes. What Brexit ? Especially after the Supreme Court has put a boulder in its way.

I see EU mass immigration is going on apace since the vote.

Blue Eyes said...

Well of course it is, EK, as nothing changes until the law changes and the law can't change until we leave. Even if the Art. 50 button had been pressed immediately there would still be two years of free movement.

Readers may be shocked to learn that I am currently renting my spare room to a new arrival. Romanian, as it happens.

andrew said...

The supreme court is defending the british constitution.
If TM got her way, we could leave pdq. Later on someone else could possibly use that precedent to rejoin us without parliamentary agreement or a referendum. You wouldn't like that much.

On the general point of the "sky has not fallen in", well how is that a surprise, these things take years to unwind.

I would remind everyone that the exiters promised rather more than 'not much has/will change'. They promised a bright new future - we would be the new venetian empire - lack of disaster so far is not success and the success criteria are being rather over-flatteringly framed.

As I have repeated before (probably ad nauseum), personally I think the most likely result is 'not much has/will change'.
Speaking as one of the last true cons, no change is a good thing.