Wednesday 7 December 2016

A post where I worry for remainers...just a little.

There has been recently the odd article in the UK press where many of the people who voted Remain seem to be moving on to the new stage of acceptance. Not of course with still pouring bile over those who voted Leave, but still, progress.

However, now they have a touch more clarity to their anger they have started to piece together the real puzzle. The EU is a wounded animal, not a rational actor, it is also the sum of its parts and not a monolithic entity. Many of those parts now hate the UK, indeed they have to for their own electoral survival (see Dutch Prime Minister comments of any time in the past 3 months).

These types have appointed Michel Barnier to lead the Brexit negotiation. He has already made it clear there is no negotiation. The UK Government knows this and is preparing as such, of course they have to make noises to keep the Lib Dems and media people happy. The real plan is to wait and hope for rapid political change in Europe during 2017

Some of these remain types then mis-interpret this charade as the Government not having a plan, of they do, but it will be MASSIVELY UNPOPULAR with the remainers, so they pretend not to for now. They can worry about that battle later.

However, at this point the remainers are going to be very sad indeed because Brexit will mean Brexit and that will be that. Discussions will be around the real core issues of whether people can stay in the Country, not what level of access we have to the customs union etc.

To date, most remainers have been happily convincing themselves that all will be fine, maybe we won't even leave etc. Now they are seeing the EU won't allow this as an option and the Referendum is going to mean Brexit.

How ironic, they thought PM May was mindless with her "Brexit means" Brexit tautology - when in fact she was being very clear and honest. I hope they cope with this without too much rioting, but I have my doubts.


Electro-Kevin said...

I don't think we're leaving the EU. I think the HC will find against the Government and it will be put to a vote in Parliament which will go for 'soft' Brexit which will full accord with Barnier's demands but will be couched in Cleggisms.

The game is delay until the EU collapses. (I think.)

Who is *most likely* to riot is what it comes down to - 48% of which a large proportion will definitely kick off over 52% who are too old or too exhausted from manual work to have a go. Add the fact that the 48% have the broadcasters and commedians on their side and they set agendas and cause politicians no end of hassle.

Even if Brexit does happen Leavers are going to be very disappointed. Most EU settlers will be allowed to stay (which is only fair) but new arrivals will NOT be kicked out. They will be superglued to arts students, an abundant Left wing resource for which Anarchist is a CV essential.

Electro-Kevin said...

I see the well practised and imperious Beckham eyebrow is hereditary - as with the recording contract which will follow this 'charity' single.

Many successful stars have *the* imperious eyebrow. One wonders if the eyebrow comes before the career. In this case it seems so.

Successful career before releasing 'charity' Christmas single is now replaced by eyebrow before 'charity' Christmas single.

Electro-Kevin said...

PPS - Almost 17.5 million Brexit voters haven't sent nasty messages to Gina Miller.

Blue Eyes said...

All good points CU but it could go the other way. If the "offer" from the rEU is so awful that people get scared of the unknown and swing back to let's be safe and stay in. The argument from the Cleggs and Farrons will be "Boris promised the world on a stick and we got none of it!".

Not everyone has bargained in markets in the developing world so not everyone knows that to get a reasonable deal you have to be prepared to walk away.

Personally I suspect that events will run away with the EU and that Sarko's suggestion of a new treaty will be on the horizon sooner rather than later. But we should be making the preparations now to leave bumpily so that if we choose to we can.

Apparently we are already doing the necessary paperwork to have a relatively seamless WTO relationship with our trading partners on exit. I an heartened by this because the government in public has been doing a very good impression of doing sod all.

Anonymous said...

"These types have appointed Michel Barnier to lead the Brexit negotiation."

Since there has been no article 50 notification, they have no authority yet to negotiate anything.

But then its own rules never meant much to the European Union.

Bill Quango MP said...

Time magazine saying Trump is the president of the 'Divided States'.

And we think we have problems..

Anonymous said...

Anon 3;32 pm

It would also seem that Monsieur Barnier is representing the Commission whereas under the Treaty it is the Council (current President Donald Tusk)that is supposed to be doing the negotiation following receipt of the Article 50 Notice.

Richard North's site is the one to follow and as he rightly points out today, just wait 'till the 27 start to fall out and squabble.

Verherofstat and Barnier/Junker are simply playing a political game vis a vis the EU and at the same time indulging in psyops for the benefit of UK remainers and their current campaigns.

These EU wallahs are facing as many and probably more problems than the UK.

Blue Eyes said...

Indeed Anon. And as I have been boring on, the first thing the 27 have to agree on is a treaty change and a new budget. How many members are likely to accept higher contributions or lower spending in their countries? And how many will take the opportunity to raise their little pet issues during any negotiation?

Anonymous said...

re final question the answer is as you know quite a few i.e all of them!
Huge issues at stake
Off top of head:
French election 2017-Le Pen unlikely winner but who knows
German election 2017- Merkel probably back in new coalition
Dutch - election?
EU /Euro finance - i.e. common treasury= German politicians eventually having to come clean. Bust German Italian French banks
Debt issues - Greece Italy Spain Portugal not forgetting France
Euro Parl elections 2019
Fishing - IIRC all up for reneg 2020
Hungary -immigration/Urban/politics
Poland- defence/politics
Baltic states - defence/Russia
Austria- not all over with Presidential elections - Hofer's party scored large vote percentage so wait for next general election
Immigration/terrorism -common problem

I reckon there's a bit of leverage for the UK negotiations in amongst that lot e.g defence Baltics. Generally financial/Banking issues.

On the other hand for example those Spanish so and so's will be going for Gibraltar unless UK caves in on fishing.

Electro-Kevin said...

If you want to know what the Supreme Beings will decide look at the lawyers with the imperious eyebrows.

They're the ones wot will win it.

(Similar happened in Star Wars and Game of Thrones)

Bill Quango MP said...

EK - in Star Wars, and Game of Thrones, eventually, the men with swords up.

Anonymous said...

The lawyers didn't stop Henry VIII.

GMorris said...

As your resident remoaner i'd say stop being so fucking patronising, of course I realise brexit means brexit, I have no illusions of it not happening and I have no desire to see a second referendum, despite the plan being

"The real plan is to wait and hope for rapid political change in Europe during 2017"

Wtf kind of plan is that?!?!? generally when i plan things I like to have some modicum of control rather than just hoping it goes tits up for everyone else so it'll somehow work out for me.

Despite your arrogant grandiose pontificating tone being a massive turn off I still respect the opinions you have and regularly read**, i just pity your ignorance that you think remoaners don't want whats best for this country, of course they do, they just aren't certain that Brexit will achieve that. If you spent more time adding credibility to your point of view rather than putting your efforts into bashing remoaners you'd probably win many of us over, but maybe that's not your aim, maybe you want to one day say i was right and you were wrong.

** Okay this post may not sound like I respect you much, but honestly I do :)

CityUnslicker said...

GMorris - nice comment thanks.

I regularly point out that most of the current remain causes as crap. The BBC today is saying all the banks are moving to France, on the basis that some are doing due diligence according to the French minister.


Of course they are doing due diligence, then they will decide 75% taxes aint for them, not the Financial Transaction Tax, plus what the fuck do we expect the French Business Minister to say.

Yet this is all the rage in remoan world, as if everything is ending. I happen to love Guido's #Despite Brexit. Nothing is really going wrong and nor will it in the near future.

brexit will be hard brexit and we should plan for that. However, I don't get to think or discuss that much because all the drive is to discuss flavours of imaginary Brext. The Govt are playing his game because it suits them too - it is deeply cynical though. But he ho, so are the EU politico's.

Blue Eyes said...

Classic Remoaner Rhetoric: Brexiteers need to PROVE that it is going to be good.

We don't know whether it will be good or not because of two main factors:

1. whether the newly democratic UK makes good decisions to thrive

2. whether in the short term our European trading partners try to make things difficult

2 is only a problem while we re-orient, but a tough 2 may affect whether we get 1 right. The commissars might be right that if we crash in the short term then we might come crawling back to Rome.

The potential benefits are obvious to anyone who isn't hidng behind the sofa:

- we can open up our economy to countries beyond Fortress Europe
- we can be more dynamic and have better rules and regs when we are making rules for ourselves instead of the awful compromises that the EU produces
- we can run our institutions in the common law approach rather than the Roman law approach. This is not mentioned much but could be a huge boon.

GMorris said...

I know its ridiculous, you give me 2 shitty bullet points that go along the lines of as long as our massively bitter neighbours who have everything at stake don't give our incompetent divided politicians a hard time we should be okay, and i don't shut up and hang a union jack from my brexit hard on. No convincing some people i tell ya.

GMorris said...

Flagwaver, he have 3 potential benefits and 2 deciding factors, i was referring to the 2 deciding factors

E-K said...

BQ - On this occasion I must disagree. In Star Wars it woz them with The Force wot won it. Game of Thrones it's them with dragons... which favours the SNP in this case.

Anonymous said...

One big Brexit benefit should be that out of the EU there is no excuse for our largely pathetic politicians to hide behind the EU and take responsibility.
If there aren't any Brussels directives and they have to make law and policy it's down to them.
Where there are international standards to which UK is bound to comply and what John Redwood calls 'treaty law' let them explain why and how. And if UK signs any future treaties it's direct, not through the EU.

This is I expect something that a sizeable number of politicians would like to avoid.

Blue Eyes said...


Nick Drew said...

you think remoaners don't want whats best for this country, of course they do, they just aren't certain that Brexit will achieve that

The point, GMorris, is surely that what's best for the country is not on offer. Business-as-usual EU was increasingly bad for us: loss of access to Single Market will (of course) have major downsides for us: some of us reckon the latter can be made to work better than the former.

'Best for the country' would have been a comprehensively reformed EEC with a massively downrated EC and the acquis put purposefully and permanently into reverse gear, I think we all know that

(- all except some particularly stubborn federasts / internationalists, who reckon any price is worth paying to extend the spread of *world government*)

Electro-Kevin said...

ND - It is the EU which is demanding Hard Brexit, in fact.