Tuesday, 21 February 2017

By-Elections - the end of the populist surge?

There are 2 by-elections this week. One in Copeland and one in Stoke.

The Copeland one is about as uninteresting as it gets. A safe Labour seat, Labour are running their traditional 30-seconds-to-save-the-NHS campaign. It is a slam dunk hold for Labour. I doubt many of the people there even know what a Tory is, some kind of baby-eating animal their parents used to scare them with when they were angry. For reasons of needing to fill newspaper columns there seems to be a move to suggest the Tories might win...I mean really. Even when the Tories were led by William Hague and IDS they were not losing seats in Surrey.

As for Stoke, it could have been a bit more exciting if UKIP had a decent candidate, instead the new leader seems as error-prone as previous UKIP candidates and thus is not making much headway. Plus the Labour candidate is also poor meaning the net result will be a very low turnout and thus a likely Labour hold too.

You can get 3-1 for both seats to be holds. At least it means we get to keep Mr Corbyn as our commie-entertainer in chief for a few more months at least. But the likely press angle will be that this is the end of the Populist surge - hhmmmm...that we will have to wait and see about.


andrew said...

I may be projecting my own personal prejudices, but,

I think there is a growing distaste for people/ parties that talk complete b*******.

As such, in Copeland, Lab are in trouble as their candidate is/was anti nuke and the party publicity that goes 'vote labour or babies will die' is rather distasteful.

In Stoke, the UKIP candidate is in difficulties with some of his historic claims and the lab candidate is a remainer in a 69% leave constituency.
The muslim message 'vote labour or go to eternal damnation' is equally insulting to all faiths and non-faiths

As such all the con candidates have to do is not soil themselves and they just might (just) win.

This is why TM went to the Lords - she is positioning herself as the only sane brexiter.

CityUnslicker said...

the 3-1 will hills has gone now too!

Blue Eyes said...

Haha only UKIP could look such a gift horse in the mouth.

Electro-Kevin said...

God it would be a disaster for UKIP and "Enthusiasm for Brexit is on the wane" from the BBC.

Anoneumouse said...

I will come back on Friday morning to gloat

Blue Eyes said...

Andrew I think it varies. Many of my metrolib circle want to be told sugar-coated lies. They want to accept the democratic verdict without anything actually changing. They want a woman in the White House even though she didn't win under the established electroal rules. They don't want a Tory in Downing Street for pretty much the same reason. They want their local Labour council and London Mayor to have powers to subvert Brexit and keep the splurge going, but they want the Tory central government to bankroll it.

It is fascinating, sad, worrying, hilarious. They may be surprised next election when Labour MPs are only elected in very distinct parts of the country.

James Higham said...

Low turnout, postal might tip it. My prediction: Copeland: Lab Tory UKIP; Stoke: Lab UKIP Tory

Anoneumouse said...

As promised I return, but only a half a gloating :-z