Its not complete yet. But enough have been done to see the pattern.
I'd suggest Mr.D adds the UKIP and Conservative 2015 votes together. Drops Labour 2015 total by 15% to 25%. And raises the Liberals by the same amount. Then checks the incumbency benefit. Name recognition and other local factors.
So far on about 1/3 of the seats calculated Labour have lost 24.
West Midlands being a particular sore spot for them.
You can see all his predictions here.
Two pieces of info from Iain Dale's seat projections so far that I find quite amusing.
1. Tooting may switch to the Tories.
Wonderful to have a photo of hopeful Tory MP Dan Watkins outside the 'People's Underground.' Though he could entertain us with a Yeti coat, Fulham scarf and Che beret. And go to the right station. The Muppet.
Would be a great image for election day. In the spiritual home of the Corbyn Popular Front
"Power to the People"
2. Jack Dromey's labour seat in Birmingham Erdington is really under threat.
His majority is around 5,500.
But UKIP and CON vote 2015 combined was 1,000 more than that.
Lib Dems were non existent.
And a Leave Vote of 58.48% in the referendum.
Tooting, though amusing, and Mr Dale predicting a Tory gain, is highly unlikely.
Tories need to find 7,000 votes to pull it off. And UKIP, never successful in London seats, had just 500 votes in 2015. Plus this is deep Remoaner territory.
Leave Vote: 25.58%
Iain has gone further back to 2010. When the Liberals had some 6,000 votes instead of the 800 they got in 2015. If enough votes drift from Labour to Liberal, there may be enough Tory votes to win it. Third time lucky for the hopeful Tory. But it seems too much of a stretch unless Labour have a real, real shocker of a night.
The hero of Grunwick, however, does look vulnerable.
Labour may well be needing to find a new bloke to stand in its 2022 all woman shortlist