Tuesday, 13 June 2017

Coherent Rage

I really commend our BTL commenters for the expressions of fury at the election, its outcome - and of course the years of dumb and blind policy-making of which it is the culmination.  [For some reason, a few of these comments seem to blame us personally here on C@W (!), but let that pass.  We'll come to an apologia of capitalism in a later post.]

Youve taken two full-on face punches and your teeth are on the canvas ... youve had your fun and used state institutions to prop up private businesses and investments ... this vote, like Brexit, was not for Corbyn or Leaving the EU it was to utterly break the current establishment ... whatever it takes to shake you from your stupor ... hopey changey message will reduce the tories to rubble ... decided to start putting into motion a long held plan to decamp from the U.K. I just cant reconcile the disaster of a future socialist regime with my Love of England and my Childrens future, sad really ...  McDonnell is calling for the hardest possible Brexit as he knows that it will make it easier for him to become Chancellor/PM and free him up to unleash Marxist Terror ... You took a solid, successful, prosperous liberal democracy and you handed it in three steps to Marxist revolutionaries ... The fools here have been living and prospering on subsidy for nearly a decade and have come to believe that this is how an economy works ... I predict huge tax increases and a punitive LTV to get pensioners out of family homes and into flats ... The country is lost to the left

Given how laughably easy it would have been for May to avoid the immediate political outcome (a campaign of only 3 weeks would have done it), I'll offer another image of the horror involved: it's like the parent who has carelessly reversed the car out of the drive and crushed her child.

Andrew Lilico - one of CU's favourites but not someone I've linked to before - has a very good stab at the strategic party-political issues here, with some good simple headline prescriptions for the next 5 years, which is where focus must be now.  Even so, I can't resist quoting one last over-the-shoulder diagnosis he makes: 
At that stuff about the IRA, Hezbollah, the Falklands, nuclear weapons, a maximum wage, mass nationalisation, appointing Communists, abolishing the monarchy and empowering the unions was all true and ought to have made him utterly inconceivable as a prime minister, but it didn’t. Young voters didn’t care, or didn’t believe it, or actively wanted it.
Young voters didn’t care.  That's a revolution, in classic Marxist terms.  That's how bad it is.  1848.  1917.  1968.

But Lilico's prescription, whilst good political stuff, is just that: political.  I stress: it's just a political prescription.  And that's not enough, as our commenters have said.  Fundamentally so.



Elby the Beserk said...

May is beyond useless - end of.
SPADs are utter poison.
The only solace is that Corbyn isn't in power. Yet.

Another good article in CAPX here, on what can only be termed a complete clusterfuck.


And BOY am I pissed off with the new Captcha. Sometimes takes me six or seven times to get it right, as the images are so small.

Anonymous said...

"Young voters didn’t care. That's a revolution, in classic Marxist terms."

Also the case with older working class voters and Brexit. There were a couple of really great Guardian pieces by Remain insiders after the referendum to the effect "we told them that if we left the EU, their lives would be s***, they said their lives were already s*** and voted Leave".

But it's not surprising that a lot of student types voted Corbyn - no tuition fees, wiping out existing student debt - and the fact that wages have at best stagnated since 1997 (real median male wages have gone down) while house prices have soared.

However another factor, as in the US, is the fact that voter age is increasingly a proxy for race, as the "minority" proportion is highest among young people. Lord Ashcroft's excellent polling gives us this (p 141, 154) for the percentages voting Conservative by race/religion


Jewish 75.5%
Christian 69.7%
Chinese 66.0%
Whites 59.3%
Buddhist 50.0%
Hindu 49.3%
No Religion 43.9%
Indian 37.3%
Mixed Race 33.3%
Sikh 28.6%
Black 19.9%
Muslim 15.9%
Pakistani 11.0%
Bangladeshi 8.7%

Now those gaps are YUGE and dwarf the age gap while also explaining part of it.

gmorris said...

It feels inevitable now that JC will get in, the tory party is a powder keg ready to go off, too many people take things at face value, one more change of leadership means even more unstable tory party and look how JC is standing firm to most people.

All JC has to do is wait this out.

When i'm not despairing at the above I console myself with the fact that JC couldn't win against a terrible campaign, terrible manifesto and terrible party leader, maybe this is his high water mark.

L fairfax said...

The tories should have made housing cheaper and not raised tuition fees.

Anonymous said...

You can also see why Labour love mass immigration. But what does it do for the Tories, who let so many in between 2010 and 2017? 59% of the white vote is a 1945-doubleplus (Attlee got 47.7%) landslide - in a 1945 Britain.

L fairfax said...

"You can also see why Labour love mass immigration. But what does it do for the Tories, who let so many in between 2010 and 2017? 59% of the white vote is a 1945-doubleplus (Attlee got 47.7%) landslide - in a 1945 Britain. "
The tories are really the stupid party.

Steven_L said...

The tories should have made housing cheaper and not raised tuition fees.

They are the debt party basically aren't they? More than doubled the national debt, lots of schemes to increase mortgage debt, perpetual debt for all students...

CityUnslicker said...

We live in interesting times.

Social Media is the real revolution - look at what has happened globally since it was invented - the Great Crash, Trump, Brexit, ISIS - it is a long-list.

The global populace is more connected and emotional than is used to be - which is bad for elites and great for populists - be they Farage or Corbyn.

There is no bottle to put the social media genie back into. The UK was facing a huge challenge with Brexit anyway. Let's see if it calms down over a few months. One long term positive is that Corbyn can retire now, a successful hero forever for the Left. His replacement may not have his charisma or campaigning ability or they could be even better.

But the next election will not be May or Corbyn as the leaders would be my bet.

Steven_L said...

Boris v McDonnell?

Anonymous said...

Why would Corbyn retire now ? He's only 67.

Trump is 70. Mugabe is 93. The Queen is 91. None of them is planning to retire soon.

Don Cox

Bill Quango MP said...

Can't see Corbyn retiring either. He can sense the impossible is very near to being realised.

The " one more heave" slogan to get the kids out voting again.
Another bucketful of sweets for everyone, and he's done it.

Then he can retire. Lifelong dream fulfilled.

Anonymous said...

Lilico: "With the threat of a Corbyn government, the Tories must find a way to carry on for as long as possible, in the hope something turns up."

I can't think of anything more likely to guarantee a Corbyn victory.

The grumbling old man has gone, Corbyn may not be a slick political operator but he has morphed into a leader. Attacking him isn't easy.

The Tories can either outmanoeuvre him (I'd suggest starting at looking at a replacement for most benefits and state pensions with a Citizens Basic Income, looks like free stuff, but can be costed via savings and finagling the taxes) or just let him in and let experience be the great educator that it is. I suspect that, after 5 years, the Corbynistas will be enamoured with him. Opposition is easy, governing is hard, let him find that out and flash hist feet of clay to his supporters. You'll get a couple of generations of anti-left feeling out of it.

There's no easy solution, you either recognise the ground has shifted and adapt, or risk obsolescence.

Anonymous said...

*less than enamoured, missed out the less!

dearieme said...

"a campaign of only 3 weeks would have done it": isn't the minimum permitted notice longer than that?

Steven_L said...

Having pondered it, I don't think the next labour government will be 'hard left' or 'communist' or whatever. I think the stage is set now for another Blair-type figure to sweep in and unite the labour party.

Don't get me wrong, this labour government will do many things that annoy the hell out of CU and BE and many BTL commentators on here. But it won't be all out marxism.

Whereas the north/south divide characterised nulab, 'born-again-lab' will be more characterised by the young / old, owner / renter, BME / white, owners of assets / non-owners of assets divide that has set in.

Forgiving student loans is a straight forward enough bribe that will buy a lot of votes these days. We're not far off a situation now where building social housing to order would mop up a majority.

CityUnslicker said...

SL - That is wishful thinking. The true Marxists are happy to wear whatever skin they need to in order to get elected.

Once you start with a soak the rich strategy together with praise the unions, as we have seen time and again before, you soon reach IMF bailout.

Whatever we all think, and there some excellent thoughts here in recent days, we all agree that the UK economy is actually very out of shape and not in a good long-term state at all.

What I see the left saying constantly is "....but the 5th largest economy in the world can stand this...xxx" We know it is not true. A big lump of loans will see us into the place of Italy in quicktime, stuffed with debt and no easy macro tools to ease the pain - bar massive devaluation. Of course, I personally think the lefties know this well, that massive devaualtion they see as a nice social leveller after all.

Steven_L said...

that massive devaluation they see as a nice social leveller after all

You think? People who work in international companies, have internationally useful skills, or lots of capital invested in international assets (i.e. the rich) wouldn't be all that affected by a devaluation would they?

So middle class, mediocre solicitors, accountants and managers would all lose out. But aren't these the kind of people Nulab won over in droves for their landslides?

I'm starting to think faster devaluation is an inevitability now. I doubt we'll devalue sterling as fast as Italy did the Lira or Spain the peseta. But regardless of who we elect, I think devaluation is coming.

I don't think lefties see devaluation as a leveler, I think it's more that their core support don't have much surplus to save, but demand more and more, so running a central-bank funded deficit (which is exactly where we are headed now regardless of who we elect) is simply easier than balancing the books.

Thud said...

I'm trying to make sense of where we have landed and not make any snap decisions. I have already said that we had as a family an option to move to the U.S. and we are putting our affairs in order to do just that if needed...but I don't really want to! The problem is that even if corbyn gets in and as people have remarked finds how difficult actually running a country is that by then for my finances and childrens future it will be too late. I just hope it all calms down and a suitable replacement for May is found and the labour party get on with the usual commie "I'm redder than thou" shit and explode....here's hoping.

Nick Drew said...

Looks like it's 5 weeks, not 3 (or 7)

"If the House of Commons, with the support of two-thirds of its total membership (including vacant seats), resolves "That there shall be an early parliamentary general election" ... the Monarch (on the recommendation of the prime minister) appoints the date of the new election by proclamation. Parliament is then dissolved 25 working days before that date"

the "reason" for 7 weeks would thus have been that they like to tidy up some "essentials" in Parliament

so she could have gone for 5 weeks and one day, which alone would prob have saved the outright majority

(or not at all, of course ...)

Charlie said...

"that massive devaluation they see as a nice social leveller after all"

No, it is devaluation of the currency via QE and ZIRP that has led to the current economic mess and resulting societal divisions in the first place.

Readers of this blog would I'm sure have been invested in non-sterling denominated assets for a while, but it is still rather difficult to outpace house price growth as most of us don't leverage our bets on the stock market.

L fairfax said...

@"Readers of this blog would I'm sure have been invested in non-sterling denominated assets for a while, but it is still rather difficult to outpace house price growth as most of us don't leverage our bets on the stock market."
I haven't but I wish I had done so.

Steven_L said...

Aren't something like a third of properties in the UK owned outright - i.e. with no leverage?

I've done the maths on this before and drawn the charts.

Basically, from 2007 to 2017 UK house prices were down aboput 25% in US dollars whereas £1 invested in the S&P500 (in 2007 before the bubble burst) is worth £2.20 and more like £5.50 if you bought at the bottom in early 2009.

You're right that someone who needed somewhere to live in the UK would generally have been better off taking on a mortgage in 2007 and owning for the last 10 years. But someone with lots of equity, or who owned outright, would have been better off renting and keeping their money in global equities.

UK houses are flat or down against all other major currencies over the last decade.

Anonymous said...

But SL, we live in the UK and are paid in sterling, so housing is a lot more expensive for us - the fact that it's cheaper for others is not a good thing. Few Brits have the luxury of gambling ... if only I'd sold up and put all my money on Leicester last season I'd be fine!

Corbyn's getting some good if obvious cracks in today in Parliament, talking about May's Coalition of Chaos and stating that the Labour Party stands ready to provide the strong and stable leadership the nation needs. The Blairites who've been attacking him all year are cheering.

Anonymous said...

@SL - aren't you forgetting the value of residual income?

I rent out my old house, and it pulls me around a £100 a month profit which funds a day out. Once the mortgage is gone on it (sometime next year hopefully), it'll pay most of the mortgage on my current property.

5 - 10 houses represents a better return than most pensions, with minimal risk. A collapse in house prices means nothing IF you're not over-leveraged. A collapse in rental prices reduces the residual %age of value, but is still 'free' income, again as long as you're not over-leveraged.

You'd be an idiot to stick all your eggs in one basket of course, but property is still a good investment.

I've got a good tenant too, so I keep the rent under the area's average, no point being greedy and I like to reward good behaviour.

As for dollar/euro value, as the other Anon pointed out the UK operates in sterling, so it's a meaningless comparison to the internal market, albeit one for the external market to make note.

Electro-Kevin said...

Nick Drew

Thank you so much for directing me to Invictus. Also the tips on writing by Scott Adams. With careful use of alliteration I was able to deliver the 'most stunning' eulogy for my father.

Thank heavens ! A full honour guard from lots of organisations and several retired London police commissioners present - over 200 in the congregation. (Big man, my Dad.)

Electro-Kevin said...

My Whatever His Name is Today was doing alright until he got high on hubris and started ascribing to us comments and beliefs that we don't hold. The kudos has taken a bit of a dent lately.

In fact, I'd been predicting similar but won't crow about it and the person who is really most prescient in this is the great Peter Hitchens, who not only told us how Brexit would be sabotaged but why.

We would not be allowed a party to form to take us out. He exorted that we should not attempt Leaving before a Eurosceptic party was elected. I wish I'd listened.

Then we have Yannis Varoufakis claiming the same and that we should have chosen to Remain in ... and against.

I was not wrong to desire Brexit but now concede that it is impossible on our terms. (Because of the fifth column)

Where Whatever His Name Is Today can fuck right off is in his demonisation of our older citizens.

They wanted none of this house price inflation.

Like he they wanted a return to real money, honesty, graft and to get our workshy off their arses instead of continually compensating for their inactivity with immigration - they hate indebtedness and the sky rocketing debt - whilst in the EU incidentally - is not lost on them.

The Conservative Party they craved was barred from them.

The betrayal by May is easy to spot. It did not take a genius to work out a strategy to reduce the Brexit mandate (a problem to a Remainer like her - not a benefit.) All she had to do was delay, delay, delay and this is what she did. When that failed, delay again by throwing a General Election and by making the most lacklustre attempt to win in human history. (Word has it that Juncker encouraged her to do it.)

It came out of the blue - after we'd cleared the Great HoC/Miller prevarication.

(How can you not see this, Nick ?)

MWHNIT's pejorative 'Chintzy' lays bare a visceral hatred of conservative Englishness and older people. It exposes his/her lack of originality and his subscription to the full brain-washing "turn against your elders" subliminal messaging from the Left and the BBC. (I don't know how old MWHNIT is.)

Be under no illusion. We over fifties, white English are now the enemy in this country.

Well. I had sympathy with the Snowflakes before but fuck them too.

Voting for Corbyn whilst rejecting their elders ?

HG Wells' Time Machine. Eloi voting to be boned by Morlocks (or should that be Moor-Locks ?)

You must be pretty naive to not see that importing competitors for both your job and housing is making you poorer.

It's too late to take from me what I've already had and there's always euthanasia (not the worst option in my recent experience.)

The West is doomed and I hold that if we go down it does too.

6:31 pm Delete

Electro-Kevin said...

Anon 6.11

Good for you.

It would be just my luck for a collapse at the height of my exposure and why I haven't done it. That's the risk with property - several years of over-leverage if one cannot buy without a large mortgage.

Instead I bought a bigger gaff with plenty of lodger potential. Rent-a-room is quite generous on tax.

Anonymous said...

A few thoughts on my long return drive today:
1. There is a Globalist Uniparty. In the US this cuts across Dems and Repubs which largely comprises the opposition to D. Trump.
2. Above party has succeeded in co-opting the left, particularly the young educated under progressive education system of last 30 years. Such people are being fooled big time. False charities such as WWF make millions out of them. Easy group to manipulate through social media on which their lives are focussed.
3. UK elite has totally signed up to Globalism (of which EU is a structural part).In fact UK has been leading light as it means global finance and money for City of London. Common Purpose is real. Mind rule through P.C. Degradation of socirty through fragmentation, immigration etc. If globalism was to work 'Britain' definitely had to be broken. Middle class (as in US)are 'boiling frogs' and will be screwed royally.
2. UK Party labels are now totally useless. There's what was formerly known as the LibLabCon but is now the Globalist Corporatist pro-Immigration Bankers party. This group include Blair Mandelson Osborne etc. The new establishment.
3. There is a rump of politicos who still subscribe to traditional Conservative views and a smaller group of politicos who are old Labour /Socialist. Corbyn and his friends sit there somewhere as international socialists.
4. Voters by and large don't see this and view through outdated spectrum, happily aided by MSM.
Where are we headed?
Not optimistic.

p.s. EK your Dad's funeral and your role in it must have brought you huge comfort.

Bill Quango MP said...

Ashcroft exit poll data shows it was the over 65's that caused loss of a majority.
The situation may not be as dire as it first appears. It seems at least 20-25% of the elderly voters, didn't vote for May.

They probably didn't vote at all. More data will be available soon.

For some reason May's decision to take away their winter fuel payments. Take away the equity in their homes, essentially an inheritance tax only for dementia suffers only. And say she might or might not whack up VAT , was less compelling a reason to vote for her, than Corbyn promising £30,000 to every university student for them to vote for him.

Who knew ?

Steven_L said...

@SL - aren't you forgetting the value of residual income?

Yes you're right that the house price indices don't include rental income whereas the S&P500 does include dividend income. If there was such an index I would have used it. But even with rental income, global equities have outperformed UK property for the past decade.

5 - 10 houses represents a better return than most pensions, with minimal risk.

Hmmm. Let's assume one house is worth 5 x average income. So 5 x house = 25 x times average income. So 25 x £25k = £625k. You're right that most pensions are worth less than £625k. But there is an obvious flaw here.

If everyone owned 5 to 10 houses they would be worth jack shit. But everyone needs an income in retirement. So if there were no pensions (and there should be no reason everyone able to work can't save for pension) then the government would have to tax the households with 5 houses to pay the pensions of the other 4 households wouldn't they?

As for minimal risk, I thought this post was about the political risk of a very left wing government. Doesn't Corbyn flirt with a right to buy for private tenants for a start?

if only I'd sold up and put all my money on Leicester last season I'd be fine!

Well I've got a tenner on an England / India final in the ICC @ 6/1 and £2.50 each way on Mr Dhawan to be top tournament run scorer @ 25/1. So looking good so far. But this isn't saving or investing, it's gambling.

I appreciate much of the British public think houses = investing and stock market = gambling but they are wrong.

Nick Drew said...

Kev - you obviously did the old man proud. Watch out for mum, now.

Fine rant @ 6:40

Thud said...

EK.It sounds like you did your Dad proud and now you continue to make things better for your lads...good work.

Electro-Kevin said...

Thanks all.

Electro-Kevin said...

PS, (back on theme)

Farage has a point I think.

One of my lads (a student) got two votes. I don't know whether the Electoral Commission is on top of this or if there is an automatic prevention for abuse already in the system.

It would certainly account for the increase in votes and the newly enervated Cult of Corbyn. (CoC for short.)

This country is full of CoCs.

Anonymous said...

E-K, all of my children got two votes bar one who lives abroad and only got one. I guess if you wanted to go down the postal or proxy vote route (or fancied a bit of travel) you could vote twice, don't think there's owt to stop you.

Bit like our so-called 'border controls' really. What's a Libyan who's not been given asylum doing in London at all? If he ain't there he can't stab anyone.

Thus - I know it's a bigger country, but have you seen US demographic projections? When do we finally stop running? When the demographics are overwhelming? This isn't a dig, there's a reason I and half a million others left London to raise our kids.

Anonymous said...

@SL - Where are you getting your 'even with rental' sums from? You've stated there isn't an index, nor would I expect there to be as it would have to incorporate rental returns and the likes of AirBnb - a 105k flat in Manchester centre will see you pull in north of 50k p.a. via AirBnB.

"If everyone owned 5 to 10 houses..."

First off, that's a facile argument, we *know* that won't happen. If everyone owned a Ferrari they'd be devalued, but it's not exactly an argument against having a Ferrari is it? Mainly as we know it won't happen. And that's before you get to the fact it would be something of an impossibility without everyone renting off everyone else.

I'm also not stating it as an argument against having having a pension, just that if you can do it, it represents a better outcome. I thought I was rather explicit about not sticking all your eggs in one basket? A well rounded investment portfolio is the way forward and, yes, property should be part of that if you can achieve it.

And right-to-buy for private tenants should only be a worry if you're overexposed. I don't agree with the policy, but if my tenants wanted to buy the place *now*, I'd be happy to sell at market value to them. If I expand my portfolio, that would go for any other tenants too. There are more houses to buy and do-up out there.

Anonymous said...

@EK - as others have said, sounds like you did your dad proud.

AFAIK there is nothing other than the threat of a fine to stop students voting twice. No idea if there was widescale abuse of it though, I hope not.

Anonymous said...

Further to my post Anonymous 7.16 above.
Bernie Sanders no less was in Bristol for a meeting/rally for invited socialists in Bristol in the week leading up to the election. Very quiet and hardly reported. I wonder where else he had been.
I suggest two things;
a. labour used the facebook/social media campaign that Sanders had used in the US - very successfully - although he was shafted by DNC/Hillary Clinton.
b. This illustrates my point about the international socialists.

Bristol is an interesting City in that it's Mayor Marvin Rees(Labour globalist) is obviously being groomed for bigger things. His media team actually includes J Corbyn's former spin meister.

Bristol of course is one of the 'global cities' network in the UN programme which seek to propagate/co-ordinate the green/globalist/internationalist agenda policies agenda. Sanctuary City, multi-culti,cycling etc. this seeks/works to subvert national government. Strangely though it is the mayoral system favoured by NUlab -Prescott and on through to NuCon -Osborne - which facilitates this.

Have a think chaps.

Charlie said...

"Have a think chaps."

I stopped reading when you suggested that global elites are using cycling to subvert democracy.

Electro-Kevin said...

Anon at 3.38

For every landlord with a portfolio Labour gets a portfolio of voters, to the Tory's one.

Mrs Thatcher knew the conservatist significance of stakeholding in a society.

Steven_L said...

EK - the tories are starting to turn on landlords too, egged on by HMT civil servants I suspect. Feathers, geese, hissing and all that.

Anonymous said...

Charlie old boy,
I'm afraid this stuff is real.



Anonymous 7.16

Anonymous said...

Bristol is where the sort of people who'd have squatted in London in the 70s/60s now go, enough diversity to be vibrant, not enough to be uninhabitable (though it helps to be streetwise). Clifton is Notting Hill 2.0 but even safer and a lot prettier. The mindset has trashed London, now it's Bristol's turn (witness the recent Colston Hall name change). Wonder where the invite-the-world crowd will go when Bristol's gone?

Not a great city for cycling though, far too many hills.