Tuesday 14 November 2017

Not Long now...stressful times as EU deadline approaches

Calm the F*ck Down Tea

For all the endless talk of deadlines and deals re the Brexit negotiations, the finishing line is finally in sight. In a little over 3 weeks we will know what is to happen in 2018.

To me, this underlines quite why we are seeing so much made of grope-gate and Boris-gate and anything else the Remain team in the media and Parliament can use. They know they really need to distract and discredit the Government, just as Michel Barnier knows now is the time to make the most outrageous demands. Sadly for the UK, the EU has indeed maintained a solid front and ignored the calls of business for any kind of compromise, at least for now. So the pressure is being piled on in the hope of a collapse in the Leave government.

So, instead we are still at the point of the EU effectively demanding £60 billion (not Euros, natch!), the effective incorporation of Northern Ireland into the EU customs union and better rights for EU citizens in the UK than UK citizens.

Hopefully, this is the prelude to them screwing a great deal out of the UK and then magnanimously
offering a transition and free trade deal. It might not be, but that is my hunch.

This would be the best outcome, a no-deal really would be bad.  Remainers will go into overdrive, businesses might panic and real harm could be done. At least the pound would fall which will massively mitigate any decisions to re-locate staff and business. Worse though will be the pure chaos of Government that the Country would suffer for years. If the Tories survived they would very likely lose to Corbyn and the Labour left who would proceed to further destroy our society.

So, here's hoping for a deal, I don't care whether it costs £20 billion or £80 billion, that is nothing as compared to a long-term Corbyn Government!


tolkein said...

Don't panic!
They want our money, after all. After we leave, the EU Commission will either have to ask countries to pay more, cut EU payments/subsidies or cut costs in Brussels. As the first 2 are practically impossible, if it's a choice between cutting jobs in Brussels or agreeing a deal with the UK, my money is on Brussels Eurocrats self interest. They need our money, and we won't hand it over without a good deal. That's what I'm hearing.

andrew said...

I forecast no deal.

No-one voted to pay the EU 60bn - gbp or eur.
There are 29.3m taxpayers in the UK.
The cost is £2047 each.

The only MPs who will vote for that are the ones who will not be standing for another election.

They might squeak through 10bn pa for a couple of years, and that is about it.

WTO it is.
This, though not nice, is less of a thing than it may seem.

excerpt from
(possible paywall)

Trade is not dependent on trade deals – as our many purchases of Chinese goods illustrate. Countries from across the world, many much smaller than the UK, profitably trade with the EU. Some have trade deals, many do not. The term ‘no deal’ is a misnomer as these countries will testify. If negotiations prove fruitless, the UK will be a senior member of the WTO when it leaves the EU in 2019.

The WTO is well known to us. Not only did the UK help to establish its predecessor, but we are already members – as is the EU. But our voice and vote is subsumed within the EU’s while we remain an EU member. The EU does not have free trade agreements with China, India, the US, Brazil and many other of the UK’s trading partners – our trade with these therefore already depend on WTO tariffs and rules.

We should also remember that investment is about relative advantage. The UK’s low tax regime, balanced labour policies, open economy and skilled workforce are just some of its advantages. Low WTO tariffs are dwarfed by the much higher continental corporation tax rates, let alone inflexible market practices. It is no coincidence that the EU historically has endured low relative growth rates and high unemployment.

Whether there is a deal or not, opportunities abound once we leave. We will be free to negotiate our own trade deals. If Australia can negotiate such deals with China, South Korea and Japan, all within 18 months, then so can the UK. The introduction of a controlled but fairer immigration policy, one that no longer discriminates against the rest of the world, will enable us to better attract the world’s talent – including Europe’s. And we will no longer be obliged to impose high tariffs on food imports from the rest of the world.

Of course a good trade deal with the EU would be preferable – lower tariffs globally encourage prosperity. It is in the EU’s interest given their sizeable trade surplus and therefore net tariff costs of billions of pounds should WTO rules apply. There are signs that the penny is dropping – politicians and industrialists are now reining in the more ideologically-driven European Commission. However, it would be utterly naive not to prepare to embrace WTO rules when we leave. No deal is better than a bad deal – any other approach would facilitate a poorer outcome.

Steven_L said...

Trade is not dependent on trade deals

Exactly, a huge industry of bureaucrats, technocrats and lawyers has sprung up on the back of the premise that trade happens because governments allow it to happen by agreeing treaties and making international standards and regulations.

Take it from someone who works at the arse-end of all these rules, it's an utter nonsense.

So we don't have a trade deal that means the EU recognise UK made weighing machines and vice-versa. Good. We can simply offer a tax allowance to any UK manufacturers that need to resubmit their designs to the Dutch equivalent of the National Measurement Office. NMI charge the lowest fees in the EU and apparently just rubber stamp anything submitted as a revenue raiser anyway. Job done.

We, on the other hand, can repeal all the protectionist EU rules and accept instruments from any OIML member state that has implemented OIML recommendations on type approval and unit verification for the instruments concerned. So there'll be no need for UK traders to buy expensive German-made, verified in the EU, stuff anymore, they can just buy direct from China and the Chinese can simply affix something instead of a 'CE' mark to signify it's a UK-legal and not an EU-legal instrument.

Dan said...

To understand what is going on here, you have to understand the psychological viewpoint of the EU bureaucracy, and their viewpoint has two great peculiarities. First and foremost, nobody else has ever turned round to them and told them what to do and made it stick.

Secondly, whenever the EU runs up against a problem they cannot immediately solve or bully out of their way, they procrastinate and kick the problem away into the future. This is their response to Greece, and their response to their currency problems.

So, the best model for EU thinking at the moment would be that of the World War 2 Japanese military immediately before an atomic weapon was used on them. The Japs didn't think they would ever completely lose their war; the EU similarly do not think that Britain will tell them to get lost completely. This assumption of invincibility will colour all the negotiations and may well make them impossible to deal with in any meaningful way.

So, what we can assume is that the EU firstly couldn't believe it when the Brexit referendum delivered its result. They then likely wanted the referendum to be re-run on spurious grounds, because the outcome was incorrect and were duly flabbergasted when the result stood. They are now looking at a major problem, because their second-greatest source of funding is going to secede from them, which will leave them with an enormous hole in their funding.

Of most immediate concern will be the fact that in the EU bureaucracy, one in five people are paid more than the UK Prime Minister. A shortfall in funding will thus deprive a lot of people of the sinecures to which they have become accustomed; this will never do so they are after a divorce payment so that the problem can be deferred for a while (the other great EU competency: ignoring problems).

I agree with Sir James Dyson: the EU negotiating stance is preposterous, the divorce payment illegal and not negotiable, and the most likely outcome a simple WTO trading agreement. That such an outcome will likely topple the EU in short order is of no account at all.

david morris said...

But,but,but...... that nice man Prof. North says its going to be impossible for the UK to proceed to Brexit without having all i's & t's duly processed & authenticated in a manner approved (by Prof. North). He can't be wrong, can he ?

Suff said...

Andrew nailed it. The entire History of the world was written to the perspective of Kings, Queens or whatever tax raising power was in control at the time but our social development has always been based on trade. You only have to look at the spread of languages, technology, religion, skin, hair and eye colour. Even in the Bronze Age, the UK was known as tin island and trade has always continued through the darkest of conflicts. The true free market will always find a way of getting supply to a place of demand.
As stated many times on here it’s time to get on a war footing with the EU and the first step is to attack the fifth column. Announce tomorrow that the BBC will be sold as a pay per view concern in three months. All the money raised will be given to the NHS . One Garry Linekar= 75 hard working nurses.... challenge the Gardian on its offshore tax status along with Geldoff and all the other luvies( promise money from fines will be used to reduce Student debt ( doesn’t need to be true just needs to be said). Drag Blair and his immediate group in to the courts on war crimes charges( state under new British Law to be introduced, lying or misleading the public will be a crime punishable by improsentment). Hoist the f@£&ers on their own Petard. And while our own left is eating itself bring some adults in to the room.
Tell the EU we will carry on trading with them under the current trade rules which we already meet and any tariffs imposed by the EU will be matched. Britain will make a one time cash payment of 10 billion but this will only be spent on toll booths to be placed on all the roads railway, and other infrastructure we have already paid for. Suggest the people of the EU could have a referendum whether they want these booths. Offer a trade deal with Catalonia, Veneto and Lombardy.
We alone bought down FIFA and then the Olympic committee. Now it’s the big one.

Electro-Kevin said...


I don't mind if Leavers are ignored and we stay in the EU so long as we then scrap our own Parliament.

If rule from Brussels is what Remainers want then let's be the first EU nation to go the whole hog and subsume ourselves totally into the EU. Lead by example as we seem to be doing on climate change idiocy.

We do not need two governments.

Boycot the BBC too (though we should do that whatever happens.)

*** It's a rare thing you'll find a Remain voter who knows his MEP's name - let alone what EU party he supports and their policies (or that they even exist.)

Anonymous said...

David Morris 3:30pm I've just had a good chuckle at your comment.

Bill Quango MP said...

Poor old North.

He has all the answers. But no one is interested in them as they are political suicide.

Sebastian Weetabix said...

Rule bound North thinks we can seamlessly move into EFTA/EEA but misses the essential points, viz:
1. That leaves us under the aegis of Brussels with their eternal power grabs and mission creep
2. Why would they let us do even that? It isn’t in their interest to do anything other than punish us
3. They break their own rules whenever it is expedient anyway

The obnoxious twat is deluded. He insults everyone and then wonders why he is ignored.