Wednesday, 17 January 2018

Political Betting seem to be forgetting something.

https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-K-XMj7qBF8Q/Wl5oJhtEojI/AAAAAAAASZE/oOoih9HqxAIK_yjHyNp3U7OCPMnDhyhigCLcBGAs/s1600/UK%2BICM%2Bporr%2Bfor%2BThe%2BGuardian%2BJanuary%2B2018.png 

Political Betting has very reliable data. And usually, very reliable, if liberal democrat interpretations, of that data.

Two posts today on the ICM poll that puts Labour 1% ahead of the Tories.


2nd is : Only problem Paul (Mason) is that Corbyn’s LAB needs 7-10% vote lead to win majority. We are miles away from seeing the required LAB vote breakthrough. 
Mike Smithson.

The stories are that Labour need a lot more votes than Tories these days to get a majority. A reverse of the last 20 years. Mainly due to the Tories losing big vote share seats in 2017 and taking easier to win Lib Dem seats in 2015. 
And so Labour need to be 7-10% ahead of the Tories to have a majority.

I do not believe that to be true.
here, from PB also, is the 40/41% as seats.


http://www2.politicalbetting.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Election-Prediction-2-e1516108852576.png 

The Tories lose 29 seats.
Labour gain 26.
The magic MAJORITY number is still 326. 
Labour are 38 short.

So the PBers are correct. 
Labour do not have a majority.

But those figures will have Corbyn in Number 10.

 The SNP will be offered far more than the DUP. They will be offered everything they could ever dream of. Including independence referendums. Nationalised shipbuilders. Green energy contracts for farts in the wind. Everything will be on the table. And damn the expense. The IMF is going to be picking up the eventual tab anyway. So they can splurge away on magic money.
Same for Plaid. Same for Green. Who won't even need convincing and would be in Corbyn's bed without the cash.

That's the Progressive-Socialist-Alliance-Workers-Party right there. 329
Lib/Tory/DUP would be a Maximum of 321. And it won't be that. Because the 18 N.I are 
10 DUP. 
6 Sinn Fein.
 2 Independent. 

And a Corbyn party could happily, even longingly, grant an Independence referendum for Northern Ireland. Or even ALL Ireland. To get the Sinn Fein six to sit in the HOC. Just until Ireland is reunited?
And offering the Speaker a job for life? That's another possible vote if needed. History and tradition will have no place in Year Zero politics. Threats, Tolkach and Blat will be the new power. "Accept the New Reality, Comrade Berkovich. Enjoy the fruits of your labours. Comrade General Secretary Corbyn rewards his loyal people. Or else..He can always get another Speaker. Make your choice."
And so that is more than enough for a majority. 

And Old Corbyn hasn't even had to offer the ever persuadable Lib Dems anything yet. Their extremely useful 14 votes wouldn't be hard to buy. Confidence and supply to ease their fears of another national humiliation. And another AV referendum? Government funding of political parties? Abolition of the House of Lords? Nuclear Disarmament? 
A promise for a rejoin the EU referendum. All things Labour were probably thinking of doing anyway. But if they can secure the Liberals, then ..well..why not pretend it was all the Libs idea? Let a thousand flowers bloom in the collective consciousness of new and radical thinking. And a couple of Liberals in the Politburo won't make any difference to Corbyn.

So Paul Mason is probably right.
And Political betting are probably wrong.

 Its STILL the TORIES who need to be 7-10% ahead to form a government.



10 comments:

Electro-Kevin said...

It can happen it Tory voters die or don't bother.

May's doing a good job on the latter.

Tony Harrison said...

EK at 10.31: never mind dead Tory voters, the Tory Party itself has been moribund and/or not bothered for too many years. Unfortunately and worryingly, I see no sign of the Tories/May developing sufficient courage, motivation and ability to fight off the Marxists anytime soon. Who to vote for? Never been more difficult.

Anonymous said...

The Tories have two issues with getting voters - keeping the existing base happy, and attracting new members and voters who aren't on the Grim Reapers to-do list.

They're not very good at pandering to either set. The 'bedroom tax' was a fine example - a great idea if you've not got a housing shortage, if you do, well, then it's fucking stupid. Same with disability benefits, we *know* some people take the piss and need dealing with, but if the end result is a system that is ethically wrong and - worse from a voting perspective - guaranteed to make you look inhuman, it's not going to help.

Time and time again they come up with ideas designed to pander to the core vote, and they either don't work or push the floating voters away.

Then there are the touchy feely ones. They're even worse at those as they're so obviously an attempt to make the Tory 'brand' less toxic. Gove appears to be tackling this though, at least to an extent.

The nation is pretty much crying out for a sane centre-right party - the sort of thing promised by Blair, but never actually delivered upon. Ain't going to happen.

The Tories bit of daylight is that a term or two of Corbyn will lock out the Labour Party for a half century afterwards.

Anonymous said...

" a term or two of Corbyn will lock out the Labour Party for a half century afterwards."

You really think that after a few years of a Marxist government the opposition will still be able to contest elections ?

Take a look at Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Cuba, etc.

Don Cox

Anonymous said...

What Don Cox said. Corbyn gets in with any type of workable majority and the rules will change utterly.

Charlie said...

Tory party needed to sort out BTL and ensure a fresh cohort of 20-something homeowners would be ready to vote for them.

Unfortunately, they were not tough enough on amateur landlordism and they are now faced with a generation (two in the Southeast) of voters who think, "well how could Corbyn be any worse for me?"

Nick Drew said...

voters who think, "well how could [Corbyn] be any worse for me?"

that (for anyone who doesn't already know) is one of the textbook conditions for a Marxist revolution ...

roym said...

Project fear v2.0?

Elby the Beserk said...

Good news. May may be able to get the Constituence reorg done.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/01/17/boost-conservatives-leak-suggests-dup-could-back-constituency/

Charlie said...

Totally agree ND, which is why it baffles me that May, rather than putting across a strong message about the clear blue water between her party and a bunch of Marxists, craps on about plastic recycling.