Political Betting has very reliable data. And usually, very reliable, if liberal democrat interpretations, of that data.
Two posts today on the ICM poll that puts Labour 1% ahead of the Tories.
2nd is : Only problem Paul (Mason) is that Corbyn’s LAB needs 7-10% vote lead to win majority. We are miles away from seeing the required LAB vote breakthrough.
The stories are that Labour need a lot more votes than Tories these days to get a majority. A reverse of the last 20 years. Mainly due to the Tories losing big vote share seats in 2017 and taking easier to win Lib Dem seats in 2015.
And so Labour need to be 7-10% ahead of the Tories to have a majority.
I do not believe that to be true.
here, from PB also, is the 40/41% as seats.
The Tories lose 29 seats.
Labour gain 26.
The magic MAJORITY number is still 326.
Labour are 38 short.
So the PBers are correct.
Labour do not have a majority.
But those figures will have Corbyn in Number 10.
The SNP will be offered far more than the DUP. They will be offered everything they could ever dream of. Including independence referendums. Nationalised shipbuilders. Green energy contracts for farts in the wind. Everything will be on the table. And damn the expense. The IMF is going to be picking up the eventual tab anyway. So they can splurge away on magic money.
Same for Plaid. Same for Green. Who won't even need convincing and would be in Corbyn's bed without the cash.
That's the Progressive-Socialist-Alliance-Workers-Party right there. 329.
Lib/Tory/DUP would be a Maximum of 321. And it won't be that. Because the 18 N.I are
6 Sinn Fein.
And a Corbyn party could happily, even longingly, grant an Independence referendum for Northern Ireland. Or even ALL Ireland. To get the Sinn Fein six to sit in the HOC. Just until Ireland is reunited?
And offering the Speaker a job for life? That's another possible vote if needed. History and tradition will have no place in Year Zero politics. Threats, Tolkach and Blat will be the new power. "Accept the New Reality, Comrade Berkovich. Enjoy the fruits of your labours. Comrade General Secretary Corbyn rewards his loyal people. Or else..He can always get another Speaker. Make your choice."
And so that is more than enough for a majority.
And Old Corbyn hasn't even had to offer the ever persuadable Lib Dems anything yet. Their extremely useful 14 votes wouldn't be hard to buy. Confidence and supply to ease their fears of another national humiliation. And another AV referendum? Government funding of political parties? Abolition of the House of Lords? Nuclear Disarmament?
A promise for a rejoin the EU referendum. All things Labour were probably thinking of doing anyway. But if they can secure the Liberals, then ..well..why not pretend it was all the Libs idea? Let a thousand flowers bloom in the collective consciousness of new and radical thinking. And a couple of Liberals in the Politburo won't make any difference to Corbyn.
So Paul Mason is probably right.
And Political betting are probably wrong.
Its STILL the TORIES who need to be 7-10% ahead to form a government.