Tuesday, 2 January 2018
What does 2018 hold in store for us all?
So, a little belatedly for no real good reason, here are some of the major likely themes of 2018 - time to decide how it will pan out...
1. Brexit - will the current deal stick or will we move back to a no-deal scenario?
2. Remain - will the continual campaign to have a re-vote finally work, via the House of Lords, Judiciary or some other contrived nonsense?
3. Election - A 2017 election was a shock, but with the Tories in disarray is it out of the question to consider there could well be a 2018 election?
4. Trump - Again, for many reasons, will he see out the year at President of the USA
5. North Korea, could 2018 be the year, with the Winter Olympics in Seoul and sanction biting, the year things turn really nasty?
6. It's World Cup year, with Russia in charge could they win it all themselves or will Germany finally win in Moscow?
7. Economy - very goldilocks 2017, will 2018 prove to be a continuation?
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Brexit/Remain - I expect more chaos, the EU will feel a need to push more and the Tories only need Labour to fall behind a bit in the polls to go into civil war mode. And whilst everyone is screaming for their brand of Brexit, the Remoaners are fairly unified in no Brexit, and whilst unity of purpose can defeat raw numbers, can it overcome the fact the UK public is generally fed up of the whole thing and just want it over and done with? I don't think anyone can predict what'll happen.
Election - possibly. Whoever gets blamed for triggering it will be very unpopular though, so if Labour somehow engineers one it may not go as well as they'd think. Although let us not underestimate the current Tory party's capacity to regard the best way of navigating through political fields of landmines is with the aid of a blindfold and a space hopper.
Trump - in trouble. Keeping an eye on the Mueller investigation, it's pretty plain he's moving up a chain and playing so that any move Trump makes to pardon at a federal level can be countered at a state level. I doubt we'll see an impeachment this year, if ever, but the prospect of a resignation or him being reduced to raging on Twitter as his power base is dismantled isn't that remote a possibility. Narcissism, bluster and playing his own version of identity politics got him the Presidency, they're not very good tools for retaining it.
Norks - looks like SK wants to talk. I imagine China will want some dealing with that as it opens up potential for the removal of US power from the peninsula and a very globally noticeable victory for China over the US. Only way it blows up is if Trump needs a big enough diversion from domestic troubles.
World Cup - England will obviously win! And when you've stopped laughing... Probably a German victory. Russia will do very well, but if they come up against the Germans then burning the pitch to ashes isn't going to stop a German advance this time.
Economy - who knows? Everything is pretty much broken with various experiments in fiscal anti-gravity by central banks. Something is going to give, no idea if it'll be this year.
I'm expecting Bitcoin to undergo a couple more peaks before a collapse, especially if the BoE *does* start a sterling-linked cryptocurrency as rumoured (well, likely the idea leaked so see what the response is). Other central banks would follow using the logic of keeping up with the Jones' and I've no idea how that'll play out.
I'm expecting a bit of a weird year, so money is going to be split in reducing debt and increasing savings with an eye to looking for some extra income. I've seen my day rate increase by 25% from last January, and whilst that would normally presage a nice holiday it's going towards a warchest instead in case things do go tits.
Some good points there, anon
1. Stick (by definition, sort-of, because the opening words are nothing is agreed until everything is agreed)
Can't wait to see how the Irish issue pans out ... but it's probably still on the shelf through 2018
2. Not in 2018
3. No: would need to be a helluva lot of by-elections for a 2018 election - and MPs are younger these days (& a lot less prone to resigning)
4. Yes: the septics seem to be satisfied with having the Disney cartoon-ogre mouthing off randomly + a bunch of workarounds by the grown-ups in government. S'pose the Russia investigation could turn up something impeachable, but even then - who's got the incentive to do it?
5. No (see 4 above)
6. No / no
7. Dunno
1. Brexit - will the current deal stick or will we move back to a no-deal scenario?
It will stick. There will be much moaning on both sides.
2. Remain - will the continual campaign to have a re-vote finally work, via the House of Lords, Judiciary or some other contrived nonsense?
No.
3. Election - A 2017 election was a shock, but with the Tories in disarray is it out of the question to consider there could well be a 2018 election?
No.
4. Trump - Again, for many reasons, will he see out the year at President of the USA
Yes, but ever fewer people will be pleased about that.
5. North Korea, could 2018 be the year, with the Winter Olympics in Seoul and sanction biting, the year things turn really nasty?
No.
6. It's World Cup year, with Russia in charge could they win it all themselves or will Germany finally win in Moscow?
Neither, Spain will.
7. Economy - very goldilocks 2017, will 2018 prove to be a continuation?
As so many expect something bad, something bad won't happen.
Whatever can happen will.
Don Cox
1) Something on mutual recognition of regulation and standards will be in place
2) There will not be a re-vote announced
3) No election
4) Trump will still be president
5) No war against North Korea
6) Spain will win
7) In Q3 or Q4 there will be a shock downside in the US economy, either jobs or GDP or some major insolvency type event. The S&P 500 will end the year under 2,600. But the recession will not be until 2019. WTI and Brent oil prices will rise to over $80.
The Bank of England will put up interest rates one day when Mark Carney is off sick, capital will flood into the UK and the Euro will collapse..
Clintons put on trial
The sex based protections and exemptions women currently enjoy will continue to be lost (Trans"women" in women's sports, refuges, swimming ponds etc.) Test cases in 2018
Trump will start building the wall
No deal finalised with EU
My daughter will get a job
Lilith - may all your predictions come true!
Predictions (well, certainties) for 2018 for the United Kingdom:
1. Mass immigration, both legal and illegal, will continue.
2. Increasing pressure on housing, schools, prisons, and the NHS.
3. No politician, quangocrat, or union leader will so much as mention
any connection between 1. and 2. Nor will the BBC.
4. The elephant in the room will get bigger.
For Trump I see a brighter future than most here, effects of tax reform will be more far ranging than so far predicted plus the chorus of never Trumpers is diminishing rapidly.He has quietly been much more effective than anybody in the media will admit (judges,executive orders). I expect him to ride out Mueller and continue to open up America to new enterprises. As for U.K. I just don't have a clue so I'll keep my head down, earn and hope for the best.
I'm expecting Bitcoin to undergo a couple more peaks before a collapse
I predict it has peaked and won't go higher than $20k in 2018. I don't think it will 'collapse' but be more like a yoyo back down to $10k and maybe under. I think the supply of greater fools has run out, but the supply of people prepared to day trade it and other 'crypto' - and more often than not in pairs trades against other 'crypto' won't run out for a long while yet.
At the end of the day these people are speculating they will have a monopoly on the money we all have to use in the future, which is quite obviously bonkers. But there are loads of bonkers financial and gambling products out there and crypto will just become another one of them.
1. A hybrid neither totally IN or OUT situation will maintain past 2019
2. No re-vote, but interference by the Great & Good + HOL will continue to obscufate & enrage Brexiteers.
3. Unless May suffers a medical collapse, no GE in 2018
4. Yes. Billy Bullshitter Noo Yawk BidnessMan will continue in place
5. Current situation will maintain
6. The French team will succeed where Napoleon failed. Allez les Bleus !
7. Around late-summer the stock market will crack. Expect an abrupt 10 percent correction to occur. Algorithmic traders will buy-the-dip as they’re pre-programmed to do. Stocks will quickly bounce upward and approach their all-time high like they have following every other market blip since 2009. However, this time a new all-time high will not be attained. Shrewdies will sell the bounce and exit to the safety of cash. By October, pre-programmed buying will morph to pre-programmed selling, and an abrupt collapse will be triggered. Valuations will once again matter. A multi-year bear market will commence that will eventually end in the early part of the next decade, following a 65%+ percent decline of the Footsies.
Kind regards
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