Monday 25 June 2018

Trade War hots up

We can tell the talk of trade wars is having an effect, as the global stock markets are looking a little gloomy. Having said that, they always look gloomy in the summer and non-algo trading is a record lows in the markets.

But nonetheless, this trade barrier stuff by Trump is bad for the long-term global economy. Of course, there maybe some valid reasons to stop dumping of steel and agricultural products - but really this is what the WTO is for. Especially when it comes to European vs US trade. It is one thing saying China never complies so you need a more robust route, but the Western democracies always do.

For the UK, the importance of trade and the vision of the UK as able to once again straddle US and EU positions is becoming more attractive. Of course we would need a competent Government to play the trade politics which is a shame as there is none available, but at least the principle is there.

On balance though, the US going against the international norms of trade is bad for the UK as a trading nation and one that needs respect for global rules and norms. Without these there is a big downside for any business trying to complete cross-border deals.

So whilst the US issue highlights one of the weaknesses of the EU, it still poses questions as to how the UK could benefit and take advantage of any upsides.


andrew said...

We can!

By having leadership that is just a bit less incompetent than the EU / US.

Looking at the structures of the EU and the US
- their leaders each have to satisfy the needs of essentially a whole disparate continent each
- we only need to look after a small island

I do think the odds are a bit in our favour.

(I apologise for the outburst of optimism, true conservative values - things can only get worse - will be resumed shortly)

Anonymous said...

A few months ago Barnier said -can't give you the exact quote- the time is nearing when the UK must chose between 'Europe' and the United States.
His remark was, I thought, striking and I wondered what he meant exactly.

Personally I prefer Churchill's comment to De Gaulle - not exact quote again sorry - when it come to a choice between Europe and the Sea, Great Britain will always follow the sea.

Regrettably I fear May and Co will ignore Churchill.

(no jokes about trawlers and sardines please)