Thursday, 11 October 2018

FTSE since September - Tin hats after all?



Sometimes a picture says it all. After an OK start to the red warning season the FTSE is fast entering the most dangerous part of the year on a severe skid. As are other world markets. There was me thinking we had got through crash alley unscathed....

10 comments:

Charlie said...

I'd usually BTFD but this feels different...

Gardener Fisher said...

Sell in May and go away. I must admit I would love to sell May but I do not see many buyers. I think Italy is the problem, after Greece and Ireland were bullied into rescuing French and German banks I think the Italians are going to say no. I hope so. There is an argument advanced by me that the real creators of our current malaise were the German banks and their irresponsible lending. I am small minded enough to admit that a very messy rescue of the German banking industry would make me smile, who knows where that would end.

Anonymous said...

@CU Project Fear? Very surprised.

CityUnslicker said...

Anon - no project fear here. The issue is we are long overdue a correction and crashes happen in Sept and Oct. Every major crash in the past 100 years happens in these months - its why I get nervous every year for this time period.

Gardener - Italy is an interesting one, but the reason I am nervous about this time is there are so many different causes - Dollar strength, over-stretched markets, cheap money being withdrawn, bonds tracking higher making risk assets look bad bets, china trying to rein in the money printing, oil price causing inflation....just lots of red flags all round.

Charlie said...

4 grand down in a week has shaken this weak hand out of the equity market. But lots of miners looking cheap... hmm.

Electro-Kevin said...

Tabloids seem to be playing this low key.

CityUnslicker said...

EK - the Financial Crisis only hit the tabloids when it was nearly over!

Anonymous said...

It wasn't just the tabloids that were caught with their pants down....

But there is something odd going on in property when people come to our charity for a Food Bank voucher and reveal their are a landlord that can't make ends meet.

Or another landlord who couldn't do repairs that the council instructed them to do. So council did the work, and back charged. Landlord still couldn't pay and was made bankrupt.

And another just today has a large PI claim about to hit him and he didn't have public liability insurance.

Whether it is the High Street or suburbia, something is stirring and it is not going away.

Electro-Kevin said...

I know a few tied up in btl - brassic. Glad I didn't do it recently, wish I'd done it 15 years ago. The margins have been tight for a long while.

Didn't we have similar conversations about bitcoin ? What happened to that then ?

Charlie said...

Anon - I suspect that the "something" that is stirring is the massive debt deflation that was stopped in its tracks ten years ago. I'm not usually given to such pessimism, but I think it's baked in; just a matter of when and what the policy response will be. I don't think the CBs can get away with yet more cheap capital for the banks, especially on the scale required.