Thursday, 21 February 2019

Don't take away my Breakaway

Image result for en marche
Carrying on from Nick's post about the new groupings and old splits. The time for change. Incumbent parties run out of steam. Oppositions regroup and reform. The Darwin inevitability of it all indicates that we are probably slightly overdue for one of the UK's Labour government phases.

All the historical indicators point to it. And if it was anyone but Corbyn in charge, it would be a racing certainty. 

Sadly for Labour, Corbyn's popularity, though extremely wide and deep, does not extend much to non-labour voters. Polling indicates that those who voted for him in 2017 won't all vote for him again. And that those who didn't vote for him in 2017, still won't. Labour are a long, long, long way away from the number of seats they need to form a majority. With no signs they will get anywhere near the number they need to rule in their own right.

As Mr Drew pointed out, and I have before, that isn't the handicap it should be. The opposition to the Tories, is everyone else, bar the DUP. So a rainbow coalition of the left is quite possible. SNP and Labour might hate each other more than Corbynites and Blairites at the local level, but at national level, with Uncle Jez gladly offering a second referendum with no restrictions, they can find common ground. 
More worryingly, and I agree quite likely, is Sinn Fein coming out of their self imposed exile to secure the same referendum on a united Ireland. Corbyn is the only way they will get it.

So, despite the many negatives of a Corbyn led labour. The childish economics. The student politics. Antisemitism and low level hatred for all unbelievers, the man could still win.

However, it does appear that although the media is currently focused on how the latest peel off MPs effect Mrs May and her woeful majority. Yet the real damage has been done to Corbyn. As he has lost guaranteed seats at a no confidence vote. 
The Tigers have said they could never support Jeremy the jew hater. So they will not assist him in any way. While May has only lost MPs who's support and votes she actually lost a while ago.

One of the biggest advantages going forward to the next election, which cannot be very far away now, is that the two biggest negatives for the Tories should no longer be in play.

Brexit will be over. 
May will be gone.

All the incredible economic data, unemployment figures, jobs created, taxes raised, youths in work and so on, added to record NHS spending and improved NHS figures, no military conflicts and falling migration figures, should come into play. These amazing metrics are all but ignored in the Brexit hysteria.  But in previous elections they would almost certainly have guaranteed a decent majority.Even the violent crime increases can be part spun-blamed on an ineffectual Labour mayor.

If the Tories were bold enough to do what they should have done in 2016, and ensure a bold, visionary, charismatic leader takes the job on, they will have a very good chance of seeing off the red hordes for yet another, unlikely win.

The Liberal Democrats, who should have ditched their ineffective and tainted leader once his remarkable ability to repel the 16 million Remainers became clear.  If they had, and had had a Macron like leader, these Blairite-Heathite centralists would be flocking to them, giving the party a very good number of MPs. More than nuisance. A power sharing amount.

Instead, at the next election,who knows who will be Libby leader? Or Tigger leader? Or what they will be campaigning for? Apart from rejoin.

Labour have a terrible dilemma. They will have alienated their natural pro-EU supporters, whilst not attracting any pro-free stuff, above the numbers they had before. They will still have Mr Toxic, or possibly Mr Toxic's number tow, in charge. All the negatives will still be there. Magnified more than before when he was sen as an outside bet not worthy of scrutiny. And Labour will have their metro-labour mob all getting airtime to claim they are the REAL labour party of sensible, liberal, socially-progressive metro types.

And the Tories are unlikely to re-fight the disastrous battle of 2017. Those horror lessons will have been learned. Even if the more modern ones, social media and youth vote, haven't been acted upon, the easier ones, such as don't promise to take away people's homes and give them to fox hunters, while raising taxes so those without homes don't need to pay, won't be in play.

A new leader, assuming May's baby step leave didn't result in too much dislocation or long term disruption can completely ignore the past. They will be uniquely placed in not looking backwards towards rejoining or at least sucking on to the breast of the European Union. The new leader can point to all the opportunities ahead. Just waffling won't be enough. The leader will need a deal. Will need a success. A new factory. New bank. Slashed personal taxes or VAT cut could do it. 
A vision of hope. Not in a 'hope this isn't a disaster like usual,' May way. But in a "We CAN do better. We WILL do better! Boris sort of way." 

A bit of vision will be required. A bit of risk taking. A bit of a Britain First attitude! For a sodding change.

 Image result for yes we can

Unlike Labour, actual Tory voters were more inclined to leave, than remain. The message that 'you made the right decision. I won't let you down,' should resonate enough to keep them.
Whoever the leader is, assuming they are from the actual right side of the party, they also won't have to worry so much about the super wets, who will be with the Tiggers. So far the three who have gone have seats that should return a proper Tory at the next go.

So, with a bit of luck and a lot of care, and if the civil war could be swift, the Tories actually look best placed of all the political parties to take advantage of the next stage of the election cycle. Assuming they can find that charismatic, personable, and credible leader. And that they can get Brexit done. The disruption and chaos of Brexit over with, and new leader in, all before the next recession hits and turns all those positive numbers to negatives.

They don't have very long.




31 comments:

Swiss Bob said...

There's a prize waiting for the Tories thanks to Corbyn. But I fear they'll miss it because of infighting. I see nobody resembling a good leader capable of uniting the party (possibly Gove?) and like you say if there's any trouble (not headlines but unemployment, home repossessions, further cuts) from Brexit then the Tories will get sacked.

Raedwald said...

Yep - the window is short.

Delay Brexit beyond June (which the EU are unlikely to agree) and Farage's BrexitCorp will sweep the EP elections in May

The downturn is coming - and to take advantage of all those great economic numbers, the GE must come before we have 2 successive quarters of negative growth (one can be written off)

Plus the Party needs a leadership election.

Minimum lead-time for a GE is 5 weeks from a (as 2017) Supermajority vote or 7 weeks from a no-confidence vote - so to hit the Local Elections on 2nd May, House must vote 3rd week in March latest - unlikely.

Summer election? Not favourite, for many reasons.

So Brexit and GE in June - with a single Leader candidate shoo-ed in - or gamble with Brexit in June and GE September / October, when there is likely to be much negative news about?

Lord Blagger said...

1. Get rid of May
2. Leave the WTO
3. Impose simple migration rules, no criminals, no discrimination, net contributors only
4. Don't pay the EU, put in place tax cuts
5. New leader - Mogg would make Corbyn lose his rag in debates and Labour would come over very badly.

Labour can't compete with that.

Anonymous said...

"Brexit will be over.
May will be gone."

I wish I could believe those predictions.

Don Cox

decnine said...

I think you are too sanguine about the chance of May ceasing to be PM soon after we Leave. She will be keen to plaster her fingerprints all over the Son-of-Transition-Deal. Can you name anyone she would trust with that job?

Raedwald said...

Apols for a second bite - Mike Smithson has some up to the minute numbers

CON 38
LAB 26
TIG 14
LD 7

But only 36% betting on a 2019 GE

david morris said...

If the Tories were bold enough to do what they should have done in 2016, and ensure a bold, visionary, charismatic leader takes the job on..........

So what you're saying is

Boris it is ??

jim said...

Strong Charismatic Leader, Bold Steps, We Can Do Better. But no bloody idea how. This is the sort of cr*p that got us into this mess. Forget this sort of Ra Ra politics, its over, except that its not over unfortunately. We are due more of the same, with the same result as usual.

What we really need is really really boring slow politics that thinks through every step, costs every pathway and presents business plans and spreadsheets with evidence. Something that Boris, J R-M and Corbyn and company will run a mile from. I'm fed up with their childish left-right mantras and I'm fed up with MPs being paid to do nothing for their constituency. I want the place run by accountants, not hand wavers but accountants with one eye on the ballot box.

Bill Quango MP said...

Boris was right for 2016.
Right for 2017 too.

For 2019?
The media loathe him. Want to trip him at every step.
His enemies are more numerous than before.
His credibility has taken a huge hit.

I would still back him. With the hope that like his hero Churchill, he is wise enough to surround himself with cleverer and more able administrators and organisers.

Better would be Boris as a Business secretary. Who's remit was to fight for Britain. Go and find us trade and friends. And bring them in.

The problem today is the problem that existed in 2016.
If not May or Johnson, then who?

Mogg? I don't think so. But I would cabinet him.
Gove? He alienated both wings of the party.
Javid? Not sure. Could be a good leader. He isn't afraid of making a bold statement.Less assured at carrying it out.
Hammond - Mr Project Fear and Mr Remain.Clever enough. Assured enough. Not popular enough.

Probably worth having a post on just who could do the job?

John Miller said...

The Tory party would colloectively commit seppuku with a rusty spoon rather than elect Boris as leader. Consequently, they will, to their own great surprise, gain fewer votes than Vince, never mind Jezza, at the next General Election under the leadership of Sajid.

Bear in mind, I think nobody outside Westminster cares about Jezza's anti-Semitism, nor understands what Jezza and McDonnell are capable of once in power. The turnout will be woefully low, as over 50s search in vain for someone to vote for. UKIP had their chance, blew it comprehensively, and now look like a senile BNP.

Any party led by Farage will self-evidently be unable to govern.

So yes, Commie-Lab it is.

And there won't be any elections after that for a while.

Nick Drew said...

Hunt swans around a lot, trying to look statesmanlike

would his NHS history be fatal?

Bill Quango MP said...

Jim: You already have Spreadsheet Phil and Quantity Surveyor May in charge.
And it has been a negative experience.

All those positives in the number are down to them. The handling of the economy has actually been sound.

Sound. But soulless. Uninspiring. And ultimately, mediocre. The Tory party is held in power simply because the alternative is so unpalatable. The bonuses of a strong economy haven't fallen to anyone.

Anonymous said...

"Antisemitism" - BQ still banging the old drum. Corbyn's "antisemitism" = relative neutrality vis a vis Israel/Palestine. That's all this is about.

Corbyn is an old 70s leftie who sees everything through the lens of a group's Intersectional Wokemon points, or how high they are on the Diversity Totem Pole. If Jews were an oppressed minority, being shot by Arab soldiers while demonstrating, or having their lands confiscated, Corbyn would be the Saudi bete noir and a "Western Colonialist" for his frequent appearances at Jewish Liberation events. I can't stand his politics, but we must be fair to him.

I'm sure you'll find anti-semites among his Muslim followers, just as you'll find sexists and people who want to chuck homosexuals off buildings.

Anonymous said...

I'll say one thing for May.

Unless she really is evil, and this whole business is a brilliantly co-ordinated strategy for BRINO involving May, Hammond, Juncker, Merk-ron et al (unlikely owing to no previous evidence of competence), May must be under enormous strain, the sort which can kill or produce serious illness.

Fair play to her.

In some ways its worse than being a wartime leader, where (in the past at any rate - maybe not in our new vibrant UK) you could at least hope we were all on the same side. Not so with Brexit, where an active and powerful fifth column exists.

She must be made of tough stuff.

andrew said...

Better would be Boris as a Business secretary. Who's remit was to fight for Britain. Go and find us trade and friends. And bring them in.

Yes and No

He is undisciplined and uncontrollable and unapologetic
He is either PM or writing for the telegraph.

As business secretary he would propose selling jars of robertsons jam to uganda/ jamaica with the old 70's logo. Not good.

As PM he would face the question 'Where is that 350m pw for the nhs' _every_week_.

But...
if he were to get some really good quality apologies in over the next year - drawing a line under his history of lying and other things that are a bit of a negative to many

then yes, everyone likes a repentance / renewal story.

and he would be fun. People like fun.

Raedwald said...

Who has enough testosterone to be PM heading a cabinet that contains Boris? Not Govey - he's a natural for Chancellor - Hunt or Raab? Possibly. Javid? He's got balls, but not good judgement or political nous.

Having a cabinet that excludes Boris means trouble. I'd make him DPM and give hin John Prescott's old brief - local government. It's so desperately in need of reform that anything Boris screws-up, breaks, or does to cause offence will not be critical. And devolving tax and spend powers from Whitehall will be popular - and may even win back some of the 1 million Conservative members who left the party between 1979 and 1997.

Jan said...

"As business secretary he would propose selling jars of robertsons jam to uganda/ jamaica with the old 70's logo. Not good."

Hilarious......I can see it now and you're right it's not a good Idea!

I think Boris has blown his chance of being PM now.


Maybe Hunt who's doing OK as Foreign Secretary......

dearieme said...

To repeat myself, I want to see the Labour Party destroyed and socialism expunged from the country. Then we can have the contest God intended: Whigs vs Tories.

Anonymous said...

Then we can have the contest God intended

Which of the many are you referring to?

Lord T said...

I wouldn't be so sure. When all the Tories were logging into Labour home to vote for Corbyn I was objecting because I thinking how useless Cameron was and that merely as a protest Corbyn may win by Tory voters simply not voting in protest.

At this moment in time I'm not sure what I will do but one thing is certain if Brexit does not happen and we are tied to the EU I will never vote Tory again and I won't be the only one. If there is no other viable party then Corbyn will get in because Labour core will still vote for him while Tory core disappears.

To be honest it is time that our younger voters get a taste of what it is like under a Labour government. That, and only that, will lead to a cure for this.

The alternative is not going to be good.

tolkein said...

Gauke seems OK

Not a raving Brexiteer, nor seems like an old toff

Had good reviews at Treasury.

Anonymous said...

"To be honest it is time that our younger voters get a taste of what it is like under a Labour government."

A Corbyn-McDonnell government won't be like the Attlee or Wilson governments. It will be a full-on Marxist dictatorship, like Cuba or Venezuela today, or Zimbabwe under Mugabe.

Don Cox

Anonymous said...

I'd love an Attlee or even Wilson government, if we could have Attlee (preferably, a paradise) or Wilson demographics.

andrew said...

I would like a government.

Anonymous said...

I'd rather not have one but there isn't a practical alternative these days.

E-K said...

Anon at 11.47 said
"I'll say one thing for May.

Unless she really is evil, and this whole business is a brilliantly co-ordinated strategy for BRINO involving May, Hammond, Juncker, Merk-ron et al (unlikely owing to no previous evidence of competence), May must be under enormous strain, the sort which can kill or produce serious illness."

I suspect she has the support of virtually the whole establishment chivying her along, and her husband. All she has to do is fuck things up and kick tin cans. That's her brief and she's fulfilling it.

E-K said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
E-K said...

Why do you think staunch Remainer Amber Rudd was brought back into the cabinet and not a solid Leaver ?

It was so that May could engineer another crisis in order to get No Deal off the table.

You've all been had. May is a very devious mover.

But hey. The Blue team may just yet clinch it against the Reds and their communist tramp manager.So, like... Yay.

*fist bumps all round*

Anonymous said...

There are things countering the ignored good news, such as the decay in law and order and the increase in homelessness.

Useful back office policing has been cut to the bone, whilst some of the more surface, visual, touchy-feely stuff has been left in place.

I was in York yesterday, not been there much since I lived in the area and I was surprised at how many homeless there were. I'm even surprised at the volume in Manchester, and I'm used to there being a lot of homeless in Manchester. And I am talking actual homeless, not the cockwits who think begging is a career.

Then we've got the prospect of No Deal. Shifting to WTO is doable, but the sheer lack of planning and preparation over the last couple of years for the prospect is pure abdication of responsibility by May and co. Anyone thinking it'll be easy, or having a few hard years is a good thing, is a fucking imbecile. If that's your idea of a good time, piss off to Syria and shack up with Lil Miss ISIS and send us a postcard about how wonderful it all is.

Even with a decent leader the Tories are going to find it a hard sell. Look at Javid, comes across as competent, and whilst he's right in stripping Begum of her citizenship, I'm not seeing it happening. Bangladesh have told him to do one, she's not their problem. Why on earth wasn't a bit of backroom diplomacy done with Bangladesh first? Sheer lack of competency on every level.

I quite like Rory Stewart, but he comes across as more likely to start weekly Yoga classes then enforce the whip.

There isn't a single solitary Tory I look at and think 'leadership qualities.'

In fact, scrub 'Tory' and replace with 'politician'.

Anonymous said...

BBC R4 are just running a hagiography (by Becky Milligan, not exactly the most forensic presenter) of Luciana Berger, one of the ex-Labour anti-Corbyn crowd. We hear all about her hen night and her plucky struggle to be accepted by the Scallies.

As the battle lines are redrawn, the BBC are definitely putting their weight behind the "moderates" who gave us Iraq, Libya and Syria. I'll be watching the Times closely this week, they like to see which way the wind's blowing before (on issues of principle, natch) coming down on the winning side. No question Oliver Kamm and David Aaronovitch will be on board.

Anonymous said...

What I'm terrified of is burglars.

I can handle in-your-face criminals but what I fear is burglars and people accosting my kids and wife when I'm not there.

I do not trust the government or the police to protect us from this sort of thing.

In fact they are part of the problem. "Wrong place wrong time" sort of shit.

No.

Revolution time.

Yellow vests at the ready.