Friday 8 March 2019

Friday Fun - Testing the waters

Where does Brexit end from here?

No Deal Brexit March 29th free polls


david morris said...

Where's the date for the commencement of Hangings ?

andrew said...

Anything to not make a decision.

PJH said...

@David, April 1st?

Display Name said...

Very tempted to put a bet on no deal, i'll be sufficiently glum about any alternative that it will distract me from losing £100.

Jan said...

It's bound to be extension/delay as May has learnt from the EU to be a master of can-kicking.

Raedwald said...

Very interesting - political betting consistently puts the chance of no deal at 20%, which I've long thought was too low. My instinct is that this poll is closer to the real chances

So may be worth a tenner after all.

andrew said...



sadly betfair is blocked at work.

E-K said...

May's deal agreed (with tweaks). 'Brexit' Mar 29. (Referendum 2 later.)

The general public do not get how bad it is.

Anonymous said...

Surely Betfair is still suggesting no better than 15% we'll be leaving on 29th March? I mean, procrastination is what May does best, and the current farrago shows no sign of any clear-cut outcome, so postponement...? I ignore the politicos on principle: look at what the bookies think, is my motto.

Anonymous said...

Too many incentives for the EU in a "no deal".

Suggest 29th is a nail-on with a secondary bet on deal/no-deal.

E-K said...


Life is about cadence. We yearn symmetry and resolution.

Australian Question Intonation. (AQI)

Why it pisses us off ?

The continual upward inflection ?

Never resolves ?

And leaves us hanging ?

Aaarghh !!!

I am extremely grateful for a comedian at the comedy night yesterday putting into words (finally) why AQI puts me on edge.

Perhaps I can return this to Brexit and say that the first to break on this nail-on-chalk-board screeching lack of resolution will lose.

I say May's Deal will win because the main Leave papers are telling the ERG to take it. All it needs is the illusion of a win to get it through - to stop the screech.

I see Elby is there already.

polidorisghost said...

I don't bet so feel free to correct any misunderstandings on my part, but surely a bookie's odds merely reflect where punters are laying their money - Bookies don't have an opinion. The odds of any outcome occuring are nothing but an unrepresentative opinion poll.
Don't disagree that it is fun, but I would do just as well by waking up my cat and asking him for an opinion.

Anonymous said...

Herr Geist: you have a point, but rather as the FTSE signifies the collective opinion of a great many well informed, astute folk, so the betting odds at bookies similarly: the collectivity in question might even be as astute, well informed and experienced as those City guys.

andrew said...

Well if we were all collectively wise you would not see sudden market rises or falls.
Markets are not perfect.

BlokeInBrum said...

The assumption is that people who are risking their own money have skin in the game and have a more acute interest in getting it right.
Anybody can express an opinion, and many frequently do, but nothing concentrates the mind more than money.
Of course, all sorts of group dynamics can play out and herd instincts can come to the fore, never mind deliberate attempts to manipulate the market, cf. "Extraordinary popular delusions and the madness of crowds"

BlokeInBrum said...

Personally I'm still holding out hope that Brussels tells May to do one when she goes cap in hand begging for an extension.

Politicians of all stripes can be reliably expected to put off making a decision until they are absolutely backed into a corner with no other choice.

Mays retarded strategy is to hope that hers is the only option left standing after the dust settles.

A pox on her, and on the Conservative Party for tolerating her.
Why are todays politicians of such a low calibre?

E-K said...

"have skin in the game"

Usually not enough to result in a flaying if it goes wrong. Enough for a bit of excitement and to be able to walk away (May take note.)

Let's not get carried away with the altruistic motivations in playing the markets. The gains always have to outweigh the potential losses by a wide margin.

BlokeInBrum said...

I just reflecting on how I would rather trust those who backed up their opinions with cash than some random opinion polls of uncertain worth E-K.

One of the biggest problems that I see with politics today, and a real driver for the lack of quality in politicians is a complete absence of punishment for failure.

Without Darwinian pressure to cull the herd of the weak and the incompetent, we end up with people like Chris Grayling; awarding ferry contracts to companies without boats. You really couldn't make this shit up if you tried.

When even the most traitorous, incompetent, fucktard can waltz into a well paid sinecure, whilst leaving a trail of destruction behind them, there is no hope for competence in politics.

Anonymous said...

An interesting comment today. Wonder if it will play out.

The suggestion is that the meaningful vote is moved to next week but the "No deal" and "Extension" votes are still held. TM and EU would have full picture of the WA before the actual meaningful vote.

Would be par for the course with TM were it to happen

Anonymous said...

@BlokeinBrum 01.36: And you didn't even mention Theresa May... Not only will she not even be punished in any meaningful way (banishment? public flogging?), she will probably ascend to the peerage, free to write her self-exonerating memoirs.

Anonymous said...

1. TMs deal will flop again
2. no deal will be voted down but who cares it doesn't change the law
3. an extension will be voted for
4. EU will oblige but it will have alot of conditions
5. parliament won't approve it and no deal will happen

I don't know where my judgement ends and hope begins in the above, 1-3 are no brainers, 4 if the EU are smart they'll give a conditionless long extension and hope that various factions in the UK sink brexit for them, 5 is just wishful thinking but i can't help but feel it is where we are headed simply because i don't see who would put forward a proposal be it another ref or an election manifesto to overrule the brexit result