So (congrats Boris!) I saw snuck out this week by the Prime Minister was finally a review of how people enter the UK. Now the virus is under control, there ismore of a need to stop people from abroad coming to re-infect us all.
As such, the guidance will be 2 weeks quarantine for all visitors to the UK. We can assume other countries will do the same.
Also I travel for business a lot, this year until March I was on a plane every week without fail to somewhere or other. Since then not so much. At the office we are planning to not do any travel in 2020. And even in 2021 maybe no non-essetnial travel like conferences etc. so a steep drop in spend.
Few of us will be willing to take foreign holidays with 28 days of quarantine in total around the edges of it - unless your planning a few months in Australia who would even think about this.
Finally, with the UK being hard hit many countries will not want UK covid-ridden tourists anyway for a long time and visa restrictions may are likely. We may find we are not very popular with the locals if we were to go anyway.
All this is a perfect storm for our airlines, no business travel and no tourist travel for six to twelve months. No way the industry can survive in the shape it is now, maybe with drastic cost-cutting, no new planes, giving up all leases, giving up airport slots and reducing staff to only enough to run a skeleton service. The only good news is fuel will be at record lows and in normal times this is huge part of their costs.
Meanwhile some Countries less affected will be able to suport their airlines who will 'fly' into the market and pick up the slots and share when the time comes for a real renewal.
It is a right mess and along with a few other sectors I can't see how share prices are sustained where they are today when you see what is coming in the next few quarters.
Am I too pessimistic...what have I missed?