Thursday 28 May 2020

V shape recovery on the cards?

With the Corona Virus in the UK seemingly evaporating at the moment, we may see a V shaped recovery for the economy. This would be amazing news as I have been thinking for a long-time that the recession we see will be awful. However, the virus is seemingly petering out much faster than the Government thought, just as it spread much more quickly than the Government could adjust for.

They key will be whether the Government, under intense media pressure, will have the confidence to say that things are more or less back to normal by July and as long as we wash hands and stay alert then everything can go back to normal. It seems a brave call, but there are 40 odd districts now corona free and that list gets longer everyday - July is a long way off from here at this rate.

Too optmisitic a take?


DJK said...

Before lockdown, the number of cases in the UK was doubling every three days, now the death rate, and by implication the case rate, is halving every two weeks, so still some way to go. As a comment on ftalphaville puts it:

A few countries have now entirely eliminated the SARS-CoV-2 virus, notably Iceland, Taiwan and New Zealand. Let's aspire to achieve what they did?

Many other developed countries have effectively reduced the numbers of new infections to very low levels (despite much higher prevalence previously), and have a realistic chance at eradicating the virus in the coming weeks (of course, there will be periodic reintroduction of the virus due to travellers; the measures taken to eradicate the virus must be repeatable, e.g. intensive testing & tracing):

(3 day average cases per day by country)
Country __ cases/ day __ cases/ day per m inhabitants
Iceland __________ 0 ________ 0
Taiwan __________ 0 ________ 0
New Zealand ____ 0 ________ 0
Croatia _______ 0.33 _______ 0.08
Japan _______ 15 ___________ 0.12
Slovenia _____ 0.33 ________ 0.16
South Korea _ 11.67 ________ 0.23
Australia ____ 6.33 _________ 0.25
Greece ______ 5.33 ________ 0.50
Slovakia ______ 3 __________ 0.55
Latvia _______ 2.33 ________ 1.22
Malta _______ 0.67 _________ 1.35
Switzerland __ 12 __________ 1.40
Bulgaria _____ 11.67 ________ 1.67
Norway _____ 9.33 __________ 1.74
Hungary _____ 19.33 _______ 1.98
Austria ______ 23.67 _______ 2.67
Luxembourg _ 1.67 _______ 2.71
Lithuania ___ 7.67 _________ 2.74

Some countries could have a chance of getting there soon(ish):

France _____ 204 __________ 3.05
Estonia ____ 4.33 __________ 3.26
Finland _____ 20 ___________ 3.62
Czechia _____ 48 __________ 4.51
Spain _______ 323 __________ 4.82
Germany ___ 401 __________ 4.83
Italy ________ 409 __________ 6.78
Denmark ___ 46.33 ________ 7.98
Romania ___ 190 __________ 9.82
Netherlands _ 171.33 ______ 9.92
Poland ______ 381 _________ 10.03
Ireland ______ 51 __________ 10.40

Some countries have extremely high daily case rates - the virus is ravaging these societies, and it would take weeks of an R_0 value much less than 1 (by any means) to bring this down to socially tolerable levels (these also tend to be the countries with the weakest testing infrastructure - the biggest difference between case numbers and actual infection numbers):

Portugal ___ 179 ___________ 17.38
Belgium ____ 215 __________ 18.76
Canada ____ 958 __________ 25.49
UK _______ 2,691 __________ 40.38
Sweden ___ 417 ___________ 40.80
US ______ 16,700 __________ 50.89
Singapore _ 425 __________ 75.37

DJK said...

As only about 5% of the UK seems to have had the Wuhan flu, it should flare back up if all the social distancing ends and there is no track/trace/isolate. But maybe it will just mysteriously vanish of its own accord. Who really knows?

andrew said...

On a conference call an hour ago working through complex processes that are really not important to more than three people.

OH bounced in behind me

Completely lost my place - but made them laugh.

What has that got to do with V U or L shaped recoveries?

Well, turns out his normal supplier went away (until September), but he has got 2 other suppliers who were supplying hotels and restaurants and has a stack of really good wet fish and a better range than he had before.
He intends to keep using both as one is based near lyme regis and the other is near ilfracombe (?) and does foreign stuff.

My sample size 1-2 takeaway is
It depends on the suppliers and purchasers
V for the fish man
U for jobs where all children need to be at school - and they all go back at once
L for easyjet where if you could go to $country, not much point if you spend 2 weeks in a hotel room and then once let out, nothing is open.

Supply chain resilience is being improved
Fish man has 2 suppliers. He used to have one and if the weather was wrong, he just stayed at home for a week.
(and I got a mobile broadband dongle as I do not trust virgin - used for one afternoon in 2 months)

It is sunny outside and there is good fresh fish for dinner tonight and things are stepwise getting better and ... animal spirits and all that.

Anonymous said...

Too many variables...

Ask a 100 different scientists about covid, and you'll get at last 25 different answers.

Is it 5% who've had it, or 75%? That massively changes mortality rates
Can you be re-infected or not? Along with the first question, that changes what happens if we switch off lockdown.

The short of it is that we were completely unprepared for it, and we still haven't the necessary data to determine what to do.

Switch off lockdown, and get it wrong, hospitals are filled to bursting and people are too scared to go out
Keep lockdown, and get it wrong, keep throttling the economy to death

Close to the whole population needs testing, then we'll have enough data to determine how many have had it without worry over regional variances that could cause localised flare ups and can stop the handbags over mortality rates - we'd have an answer.

I'm hoping we get a V shaped recovery, but as things stand I don't see us going back to how things were

DJK said...

5% who've had it (20% in London) comes from the ONS surveys. It is consistent with an infection fatality rate of about 1%. There have been several studies done in different countries, with widespread sampled testing to estimate how many people have caught the disease. Once you know that, you compare to the deaths and the answer seems to come up consistently in the range 0.7% to 1.3%.

5% infection in the UK is about 3.3 million people. The 38,000 deaths is a bit over 1% of the people who had the infection.

Anonymous said...

This testing app looks like it’s been designed to destroy the economy.
Did Jez Invent it?

Someone says they have covid.
All they have been in contact with must now self isolate for 14 days.

A momentum type goes to Harrods. McDonalds. Jaguar showroom. M and S . The Spoons. Bbc radio reception. El Al airlines.
All within a short walk.. All the places they hate.

Then they records they have had Covid and are gravely sick.

All those places must now shut down for 14 days?
Anyone who has been to them must also go to bedroom for 14 days?

All without any actual real person having any symptoms at all.

Anonymous said...

Don't you mean an MV shaped recovery?

Monetarist joke ...

andrew said...

Northbound or southbound?

Anonymous said...

There is no problem in the world that Goverments cant make worse and frequently do. Little faith in all attempts to mitigate effects of Corona. Private sector is far more adaptable to changing circumstances. Just let them get on with it.

Anonymous said...

All this "I'm breaking the rules cos Dom can" nonsense is just a function of the vast amount of politically motivated mud that's been slung at him and Boris. If Stephen Kinnock or Jenrick had got that amount of publicity, people would be using them as an excuse.

Timbo614 said...

Getting worried that the market isn't wrong CU?
It might yet be a U or maybe a W if social distancing is completely ignored.
But otherwise?...

Sobers said...

There's 8.4m on furlough at the moment. All getting paid, and many have got more money in their pockets than before the crisis due to there being less to spend it on. Wait til August when their employer has to cough up 20% of their wages, and see how many get told they're not wanted any more. And then more and more in Sept and Oct as the furlough scheme gets progressively removed. Then see how much all these millions of newly unemployed have spare to spend, and what the growth prospects of the economy are with 3-4m unemployed. Plus millions more on UC.

We're in the Phoney War at the moment. The odd pot shot here and there, but nothing too serious. Perhaps its all going to blow over. Herr Covid-19 has got what he wanted, now we can all go back to normal, right?

Whats that rumbling near Sedan I hear?

Thud said...

Optimistic yes, but not by any outlandish amount.

Scrobs. said...

There was never really an alternative to Mr Johnson's call when all this started.

He'd have been damned if he didn't react, and damned later on when the opposition would have said he over-reacted.

Luckily, with a failing labour party trying to even get a 'leader' in place, their 'mullock-poking' came to nothing, and so we at least had a reasonable government in the work-place without the hindrance of too many remoaners, led sadly, by the BBC, but as they're a busted flush now, nobody really takes any notice of them!

The economy can be safely entrusted to the private sector, it's why they are here in the first place.

dearieme said...

The simplest way to find out how the epidemic is doing is to test the sewage.

It gives you several days notice of a rise in cases. Presumably it also gives you several days notice of a fall.

No doubt Public Health England could get a testing system working in - oh, what do you think, Sir Humphrey? Six months? A year?

E-K said...

Hopefully you're right and it is a V shape. Around here it's looking like a tits-up shape.

At least I was able to buy my first whippy ice cream of the year.

Peter MacFarlane said...

I don't think New Zealand has eliminated the virus - I think they've kept it out, so far.

Geography is in their favour of couise, but do you imagine they can keep that up for ever? No more All-Blacks rugby, no more tourist trade, no more movies being made, no more worldwide wine business...permanently?

All they've done is ensure they have absolutely no immunity in their population.