Monday 21 September 2020

Watch the markets - 2020

We all know that September is the time for big market crashes.

 1929, 1987, 2008 - All the doom was in September and October.

This year to date, despite the huge Covid-19 crisis, the markets have been quite resilient, down around 15-20% despite the GDP also being down at that level in a historic reset. 

This has been explained all year by those in the know as due to the the free money printing of the Fed and other central banks, plus the low interest rates meaning stocks with dividends have still proved popular. 

However, today has been a big hit in the markets, the FTSE is down 3.6% today alone. It could be the start of a long week or a re-bound tomorrow. 

With the Covid situation across Europe moving from good to bad though, the idea of a V-Shape recovery and the markets seeing through the downturn maybe over. Instead this could be a rocky time indeed and the start of the deep recession long-predicted. 

I guess we will know soon enough. 


david morris said...

It will all (Chynese Virus, Market support, etc) be over by November 4.

After all, the only time to buy is when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own.

Graeme said...

A big hit? Maybe I'm still lost in the noise. Has the St Leger been run?

Anonymous said...

Banks stuffed full of cash. People not being able to spend what they earn.

Doubt there will be a crash, but can see there being selective butchery in certain sectors.

Review your portfolios.

Thud said...

The drop was in response to the statements from the govts clown collective and of no real substance.

PushingTheBoundaries said...

Doesn't the fincen leak also have a part to play? Saw that quite a few banking stocks took a dive. Expect them to bounce back soon enough though - "yesterday's chip wrapping" and all that.

CityUnslicker said...

Pushing - welcome, fair comment that. They will get over the rubbish. The story the BBC led with on Abramovich was pathetic - no rules or laws broken, pure smear.

Anonymous said...

I've not dabbled in stocks for a few years, mostly as everything has been batshit and kept aloft by QE, and it's good odds the moment I make a move gravity will pick a point shortly afterwards to reassert itself.

I'm not generally one to take much stock in the apocalyptic mavens, but I am wondering if the time is matching up to the one displayed on the broken clocks. A pandemic, fearful governments, weary populations and a US election that's utterly toxic?

Maybe in 6 months I'll take a look, but right now I regard investing as the province of those who'd space hopper their way through a minefield.

AndrewZ said...

I suspect that the markets have been so stable because so few people felt confident about predicting what was going to happen next - when in doubt, just wait and see. Therefore, any new information that ends the uncertainty will trigger an immediate and massive correction towards the new normal, whatever that turns out to be. However, a sudden shift could also be triggered by one or two major players deciding to move early on the basis of the uncertain information that they currently have, with the smaller players then stampeding in the same direction because that suddenly looks like the safe choice if X and Y are doing it.

E-K said...

'Clown collective'.

New troos please.