Tuesday 24 November 2020

Travel in 2021

 As readers will know, I have been pretty bearish on the hopes of the travel industry for next year, much more bearish than the forecasts made by the market participants. 

However, getting 3 working vaccines in the space of a couple of weeks is a real game-changer and much better than expected. Surely, by the middle of next year, the scourge of covid will be at an end. 

I want to know how you will travel yourselves though. I can see myself working back in London again nearly full-time from around March, maybe earlier and also travelling for business by then. All sorts of things about travel, like vaccine passports, will have to be worked out but the industry will be keen to do so. 

For now I have no intention of travelling by air, two weeks quarantine or even five days quarantine is enough to put one off. With a vaccine passport though, it should be easy. What will you all do - if your boss tells you to go abroad (domestic boss  counts too..) then historically you did it, will it really be so different in 2021?


lilith said...

Are you "vulnerable"? Not clear why anyone healthy would want the vaccine. If the vulnerable are vaccinated we can all get on with life.

Oli said...

Going off at a tangent but... I've been surprised to see people saying "workers should be vaccinated first to get the economy going asap".

Do they not recognise that "the workers" ran practically no risk in the first place, and that we have been locked down to save the old? In which case, unless you vaccinate the vulnerable, nothing changes!

Apart from anything else, as lilith suggests, why would you vaccinate groups who aren't really at risk in the first place? It make much more sense to trial it on those who are at risk than those who aren't.

CityUnslicker said...

vaccine's work with herd immunity. yes you start with the vulnerbale, but the healthy can still spread it. once they are done then the disease will more or less vanish with no hosts.

Covid is not like other diseases, too many people carry it symptomless and yet can spread it far and wide.

Also, whatever we think, politically is what other countries will accept. They will insist on vaccinated travellers - becuase they can. Same way they make you take your shoes off and pack your toothpast seperately, because they can.

Suff said...

I would fly tomorrow, anywhere that would have me. Three vaccines in a year all without the required testing protocols and reduced liability to big pharma. Now I know I’m a tinfoil hatter but I don’t know anybody willing to take the needle. Governments know they would be hard pushed to have an enforced vaccination program so blackmail it is. We knew this sh1t was coming because Blair and Gates told us it was right back at the start ( the plebs won’t be able to do XY Z unless they have a star sewn on there jacket, I mean a passport.) So I guess I won’t be traveling anywhere in the future if that’s the price.

Anonymous said...

Covid doesn't just hit the vulnerable, it can hit otherwise healthy people, it has a higher chance of hitting the vulnerable for obvious reasons.

I'll be content to take one of the vaccines after a little due diligence, some of the newer techniques haven't been road tested quite enough, but the older ones are known quantities - yes, there's a chance of side effects, but there is with anything you stick in your body.

As for travelling, there'll be an initial rush back to the office before everyone realises why they hated it in the first place, and things will settle down to a more flexible routine. I'll be WFH as per, with the odd overnight trip to visit more distant clients offices.

Flying... Maybe I'll try a short hop first and see how that goes. Still have plans to return back to the US next year having cancelled them this year, but depends on how pleasant flying is post-covid.

E-K said...

Isn't foreign travel what caused the problem in the first place ?

What's the next one going to be like ?

Timbo614 said...

I won't be flying. No inclination to go through all that hassle again. Did it for about 4 years in total for work, flew almost every damn week :(

I will be getting the vaccine especially if all you anti-vaxer tin hatters don't! Classed as vulnerable so be pretty daft not to after all the shielding and being really careful.

CU is right above, enough people have to have the vaccine to drive the "R" right down so it gets to a point where it should completely die out.

@E-K Indeed. The next one - maybe the world will have (re)learnt a lesson about not shutting down air travel immediately. Just need the Chinese to listen next time!

BlokeInBrum said...

Trump was the first to shut down flights from China and look at the thanks he got.
Meanwhile, on Airstrip One, we were busy stopping people flying on holiday, but somehow flights coming in from Wuhan were perfectly fine.

CityUnslicker said...

Suff - these vaccines have been tested on around 10,000 people each. Pre-covid vaccine large scale testing was on 3,000. No side effects, no long-term effects (well, 4 months is all the data they have). no different to flu vaccines. I am more than comfortable with them, they are not trying to cure cancer, just a nasty cold. They are not complex, just bits of RNA.

andrew said...

We had cv19 3 weeks ago. Not great but largely back to normal after 2 days off and a week at half speed. We got lucky, 6 of us got it down the local pub on the same night and one is still on his back.
As such i will be at the back of the queue for a vaccine but will take it.

We had 3 weeks in europe this summer. Through a process of cancelled operatic metal concerts we travelled through berlin to naples to sorrento. Up to a point it was great but having to wear a mask all the time and having your temperature taken every time you walk in just about anywhere and not being sure you flight was going to exist meant it was not too relaxing.

So i wont be going abroad again until both the uk and destination country are restriction free.
Flights are _really_ expensive atm anyway, will wait until they expand capacity.

andrew said...

On the arrival of 3 buses at the same time, this is not surprising, indeed expected.
It indicates that all three teams followed roughly the same processes and the same testing protocols. I would aim suspicion at anyone who produced a vaccine a lot faster than the pack.

E-K said...

Sunetra Gupta on Jeremy Paxman's podcast "The reaction to CV-19 will be viewed as one of complete panic where the middle classes threw the working classes under a bus to save themselves. Only the middle classes can afford to lock down."


I think the era of cheap air travel is probably over. There'll be a lot more Zoom meetings.

All those airline competencies lost.

I know from my own industry how relatively few simulators there are and how the numbers of assessments back up and people suddenly become 'unqualified' in a short time when one is down.

Sobers said...

"Maybe the world will have (re)learnt a lesson about not shutting down air travel immediately. Just need the Chinese to listen next time!"

Forget the Chinese and have a word with the usual suspects (BBC/Guardian/wokerati) as they were the ones screaming 'Racism!' the moment anyone suggesting closing the borders back in Feb/March. I'm old enough to have more than a 5 second attention span and can remember exactly how many 180 degree turns the authoritarians have performed during this little episode. Closing the borders is racism to Jacinta Arden is a saint, in no circumstances wear a mask to wear a mask or else, 'following the science' to taking data off Wikipedia. The only consistent message is 'Do as I say peasant!'.

Nick Drew said...

If it's properly passported**,and that results in stabilised rules, I think I'll go. Uncertainty is the big downside - will I get back? will they change the rules while I'm away?

(I did a business trip to NL just a few days before Lockdown1, and I must say I was beginning to wonder if I'd done something daft)
** BUT - it'd better be a Proper Passport system. None of your flimsy cardboard Yellow Fever certificates, which I had when travelling in / from Africa a few years ago - as easy as all hell to produce on your own printer at home. What can we envisage that won't be on sale for a fiver a time? Be it hardcopy or app or whatever. Perhaps I'm just ignorant and the PTB have GCHQ-grade, foolproof cross-border methods ...

Anonymous said...

This place is becoming more marxists@work(formhome) than capitalists@work.

Too much listening to Piers Morgan's hyperbole maybe.

By having vaccine passports you're giving over a chunk of your liberty to the state and allowing them to dictate what to put in your body, otherwise you'll never be allowed to leave this country.

The world has worked fine without vaccine passports up until now and would continue to do so.

Vaccine passports wouldn't have made a difference to the spread of covid if they had been in place last year and won't make a difference when the next virus comes along.

Unless you're willing to close your borders down completely for a year when any new virus is identified, until a vaccine is available, it's going to get in and once in it's going to spread.

Once it's in it doesn't really matter - you've probably got as much chance of catching it in Liverpool as you have Stockholm.

Lets be a little less enthusiastic to give away more of our freedoms, even if it means sacrificing a little safety.

Let the free market sort it out, if the airlines want to offer vaccine certified flyers only flights and then general flights the market can choose accordingly.

jim said...

Had been hoping to go skiing at Chrimbo, not looking so likely now. More a trip to the loft for the glass balls and fairy.

For an oldy, quarantine on return is not much of a problem. But forking out £100+ each for a test before going is a stopper - just getting one is a PIA. This on top of well hiked prices.

Later on what is left of the travel industry will see a pent up demand from all those oldies with bank balances made fat by no trips away. A good opportunity and small beacon of hope. So roll on the jabs, before Rishi and The Grim Reaper come calling.

The mood music from Boris is a bit troubling. Talk of Christmas easing, not so clear on what easing if any between now and Christmas. I feel December 2nd is being surrounded by smoke and mirrors and more uncertainty as to what is OK and not.

david morris said...

Gobshite Air has said “no vaccine cert will be required for EU short-haul flights"

Citing EU guarantees of freedom of movement, Gobshite Air said that no vaccine certificate will be required within the union and that quarantine restrictions could be lifted by springtime next year.

Flights to/from the UK to/from the EU are perhaps another matter

CityUnslicker said...

Anon - drivel of the highest order. The whole idea it is a virus and all countries are equal is rubbish. Look how taiwan or South Korea have done, far nearer the epicentre than us. Both democracies.

Blurt on all you like whilst the rest of us deal with reality.

andrew said...

Made me look:

Cases per 100000 around end nov
Stockholm : 2851 (*)
Liverpool : 787 (**)

(* https://c19.se/ - but I do not speak more than muppet swedish so may have misunderstood)
(** https://liverpool.gov.uk/covidcases)

And that rather surprised me.

DJK said...

CU: I think the standout country in dealing with the virus is Vietnam. Poor, porous land borders, densely populated, and yet very few cases and few restrictions on economic activity. The way they do it is by forcibly quarantining people who test positive and the contacts of people who test positive. That, for me, is the missing bit in the response of European countries. Sure, the approach of Vietnam and similar countries is a bit harsh, but is it worse than here, where people are free to spread the virus if they don't want to self-isolate, and the only way to control the spread is by forcibly shutting vast swathes of the hospitality industry.

dearieme said...

There seem to be two ways to avoid a high death count.

(1) Be an island that cuts itself off promptly e.g. NZ, Oz.

(2) Be populated by East Asians.

It may be that the East Asians did well through government action or it may be that they have a genetic (or cultural) advantage. Somebody should look at death rates of East Asians in other countries e.g. Chinese and Koreans in the US.

CityUnslicker said...

dearime / DJK - much better. There are clearly factors that work. China, who whilst galactic class liars, welded people into their homes which I can only assume is a fairly effective way of dealing with the virus. Vietnam, on the same lines but less harsh. Also, Islands that are a long way away have an advantage, for stupid woke reasons the UK, US and Italy in particular decided that importing lots of viral hosts was 'the right thing to do' - Bergamo has hug a chinese days FFS. Liverpool hosted a champions league match with atalanta.

East Asia also has far less morbid obesity on account of their diets - so a key driver of death and illness is much lower.

one challenge for next time is to realise to fight a virus you need to examine habeas corpus and come to some more virus resistant conclusions.

E-K said...

East Asia doesn't have an obesity problem.

A much better approach for us would have been focused protection and a campaign for people to lose weight. Have you heard "Lose weight. Save the NHS" yet ?

They tell us focused shielding is impracticable. Yet Asia's approach of track-trace-isolate is not impracticable - at least as complex as FS.

You'll hear "They've *almost* eradicated it" which means they haven't eradicated it.

"Until a vaccine comes along"

My betting is that this still won't be considered good enough. Hancock's now getting his staff officer's boots on about ordinary flu.

Suff said...

CU- I’m no antivaxer and I have faith in the abilities of the private medical sector ( as long as there is accountability. They do have a habit of putting profits above any social responsibility). However I have absolutely no trust in the abilities of politicians, of any colour, to make the correct decision on anything. And this bunch prove me correct on a daily basis.
Stop the bus I want to get off. I’m exhausted by their ratcheting interference in every aspect of our life driven by an hysterical media agenda.
Before I go full on ranty pants let me try and lighten the mood
Let’s imagine it’s a knockout 2020 the western leaders edition. Stuart hall and Eddy wearing replaced by the Xi Jinping, Putin and an Imam. All laughing like drains at the spectacle on the course. The doors open on the clown like gravy train and out pour the western leaders all dressed in inflated ego foam suits, huge freedom stomping boots and carrying as many inflated fruit green policies as they can carry as they jostle for position to the media stand. It’s on to the first obstacle for equality that’s one small step for women one huge hurdle for mankind,while dodging hate speech balloons, over the rainbow bridge and then on to the next avoiding plebs taking their shoes off and putting toothpaste in clear plastic bags. The herd thinning as the contestants blinded by masks and ignorance stumble on, their only direction screamed through oversized megaphones from Mandarins on left and right. Cut to view of Biden wandering aimlessly on the other side of the field, trying to find his jimjams. Back to the race and Macron thinks he’s through the BLM obstacle as hes crawled under their banner but as he gets back off his knees..boom...he’s felled by a falling polystyrene statue of the Madonna with the big boobies. Now on to the toughest obstacle of all. Nobody so far has made it and the pit below is filled with political careers shredded on the slightest slip. Yes it’s the free spinning log of gender but wait, what’s this, it’s President Merkel strutting across, as she ticks every one of the 86 gender boxes including Lizard. But as she takes her final step, the glint of victory in her eye, her forked tongue brushing across her lips, Rishi Sunak blows her away with his magic money cannon. Putin turns to Xi, helpless with laughter “ try doing that with your digital currency.” As the cloud of burning tenners slowly clears we see a figure in the distance. Could it be? Your heartbeat raises as the camera comes into focus. Yes....yes it’s the golden one. Boris racing up the finish line with a stonking majority and his hair blowing in the wind like Roger Bannister. A remarkable feat in clown boots and having Lego head from the Scots Nats tied to one leg and his wife to the other. But as he races to the finish line, he stumbles, he falls. As he crawls inch by inch towards those sunny uplands he looks up to see a member of the audience running towards him, could it be a member of the red wall here to help him over the line? The figure crouches and whispers in his ear “ I’m here to help, I’m from the BBC”. She then beats beats him to death with a huge foam EU hammer, to the Jubilation of the crowd and Twatter.

Timbo614 said...

Blimey Suff. Strong stuff (you're smokin'). Impressed but depressed after reading that!

E-K said...

V v good, Suff !!!

E-K said...

PS, Expect the wearing of face masks to become mandatory everywhere soon.

lilith said...

THink that the countries that wish to preserve their airlines and tourist industries long term will have to make vaccine passports a temporary inconvenience.

Anonymous said...

Vaccine "passports" would require a negotiation team to set up a pan-european or worldwide agreement on their adoption.

Who would you have on the team to do the negotiation?

Thud said...

Will have vaccine asap, will fly when I don't have to wear a mask, other than that my life has been not too different than before.

Charlie said...

CU "Covid is not like other diseases, too many people carry it symptomless and yet can spread it far and wide. "

We still don't know if asymptomatic carriers can spread the disease. There has been a ton of research done on this, with findings ranging from "no such thing as asymptomatic transmission" to "asymptomatic carriers are half as likely as symptomatic carriers to transmit the disease". The more recent publications tend towards the former.