Tuesday 16 March 2021

This time, it ain't so different to 1999

As if the entirely predicable surge in asset prices, including the new digital tokens, after the US stimulus cheque was not sign enough (hint, how much is the money needed or wanted if a large percentage goes straight into assets, rather than say, food or utility bills) was not enough. 

Now we have the glory of non-fungible tokens. Pieces of digital material whose rights you can own even if the object is free to share. I am tempted to make this blog post an example. Selling ownership forever to the highest bidder so that they can proudly own a piece of Cityunslicker, errr, art. Happy to put it in the blockchain if anyone is interested in the comments. 

In reality, this is pure bubble nonsense, it has been coming a while but the wave is nearly upon us. This feels to me so very 1999. Digital currencies explode upwards, prices of things like Tesla are unstoppable, the whole world is allegedly undergoing a rapid evolution - this is all just grift. Make an app, make a claim, take your money, rinse and repeat.

So, definitely 2021 for a bit reset. The nutters will call it "the great reset", but it is coming now, the stuff going on is just so out there and fools are rapidly being parted from their money. It ends in a big mess, every time. This time is not different. 

In the meantime, bids welcome in the comments of course.


Swiss Bob said...

Been thinking just the same. But the froth could bubble up for a bit longer, compared to 1999 even more people and institutions are relying on the markets staying benign. But that just heightens the risks further.

AndrewZ said...

So, could be some good "buy the dip" opportunities on the way then? Of course, the problem is working out what's going to rebound later.

dearieme said...

I sold all our equities late in 1999 and bought gilts and a couple of convertibles. (I say "all": 'twas but a small pile.)

By 2009 I should, I suppose, have gone back into equities but had my eye on other things.

So I can claim great success at market-timing sales, but not at market-timing purchases. Though a bit of ETC gold and silver has done reasonably well.

Bloke to the East of Brum said...

The wisdom and insight of Cityunslickers is priceless !!!!!

andrew said...

like investing in wine, if it all goes wrong you can drink it.

... but why two convertibles - you can only drive one at a time.

Anonymous said...

As a counter-argument, the gov and big corps -- so the entirety of the PTB -- would universally prefer inflation to a deflationary crash, since the latter would hurt them far more. So interest rates won't go up and the inflation rate will be carefully massaged. (In the US, the CPI input isn't publicised, but everyone knows that the things people spend lots of money on and have no choice about -- such as housing, food, medical care and education -- are inflating far more quickly than occasional discretionary purchases like iPhones, and far more quickly than CPI.)

For that reason, there's no way I'm liquidating my equity holdings. I'll maintain the appropriate Bogle balance for my age and state in life, maybe reducing my emergency cash reserve slightly to take account of the increased inflationary risk.

-- EC

Bill Quango MP said...

A small reminder. The dot com bubble also was supposed to be the end of shops. Everything retail and service would move online.
Instead, the bubble burst retail experienced a huge surge of growth.

This time, the shops really are closing and moving online. Moving forever. Retail have been losing the warehouse only war for a very long time now. I am old enough to remember when the www. decals arrived to attach to shop front windows and plaster all over the place. Nobody knew what they were supposed to mean. Even five years on from then, online was worth in profit the equivalent of one medium sized, full time store for a chain.. Bugger all.

Today, due to many factors, especially the poor response to the financial crash damage and the rate grabbing taxes from the Cameron government, it really is over.

The future
Niche and services, food and beauty, for local.

Supermarkets and some fashion, poundshop, local support, office lunchtime, physical presence health, fitness and beauty and nightlife, for towns
Everything else, online only.

The end of cash is not that far away either. Used to be predicted for 2040. I suspect much much sooner than that.

Thud said...

Lots of great companies out there with good prospects and balance sheets, divs improving and some companies not living in the past so I'm happy to hang onto some and increase in others. As a builder I have to say that cash is still king even for some quite large bills.

E-K said...

Pet shops.

GridBot said...

CU's view on 2021: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VScSEXRwUqQ

Personally I can't wait for the day when the Facepalm, Twatter, tick-tock etc bubbles implode. Facebook used to be a novelty to keep up with friends - it's extremely tedious how any old loon can now use these platforms to further woke agendas, spread fake news (err... Lies) and generally make modern life a misery.

[Irony duly noted]: look on youtube or facebook and the BTL comments on anything remotely political are full of people whinging, moaning & throwing playground insults in an echo chamber. Not healthy for a cohesive society; would love to see the plug pulled. (also quite disconcerting - it must be something inherently toxic about these platforms(?) - I've also noted the same kind of nonsense appearing on linkedIn now as well! WTF!?)

Any way that's enough internet for one day...

Timbo614 said...

Since reading your most generous offer of comments for sale I would like to bid for this one It is priceless.
Fortunately for you I have 614 Million TimboCoin* (TBC) in my online TBC account. I can transfer this large sum directly to your bank via dollar/pound exchange at the going rate at HEX** if you give me your Banking details and online login & password (secrecy assured).


*TBC are some times called ThunderBirdCoins.
** Hood EXchange.

andrew said...

I think the poisonous echo chamber pattern of most social media sites is a part of their essential nature and our humanity. People like to read news that inspires strong, generally negative emotions. This is why fox news and piers morgan. The social media sites want you to spend time looking at their sites. Showing you things that inspire strong emotions 'makes' you spend more time on the site.

James Higham said...

"I am tempted to make this blog post an example. Selling ownership forever to the highest bidder so that they can proudly own a piece of Cityunslicker"

All my birthdays ...

HarryD said...

Have managed to recoup my initial investment in some smaller alt-coims that recently launched, some beginning to hit silly prices. Obviously its unsustainable, the real question is when will this end? Nobody wants to be a bag holder, but ultimately someone has to be. Do we have a few more months? The stimmy checks start arriving from today so I am expecting a few surges, I think a decent cash out in a week or two (enough for a house deposit) and then keep some smaller amounts rolling around in the crypto markets just incase.

Matt said...

I think the good news around the vaccine will keep the merry-go-round spinning until summertime. September might be a good time to review.

Anonymous said...

"In reality, this is pure bubble nonsense,"
hot air to be sure.