Monday, 9 August 2021

Reality closing in on 'decarbonisation'

Returning from the annual Drew westwards foray - having gloriously reunited with C@W stalwarts from that neck of the (rather damp) woods - I find the wonderful story circulating of Wee Nicola being put on the spot by 'climate protesters' who'd like her support for their opposition to the Cambo oilfield development.

Her turn, then, to be skewered in the run-up to COP26.  Boris has of course already backed off fracking and that Cumbrian coalfield for reason of adverse green COPtics, but those English would-be developments have rather limited** strategic impact on the economy.  Rather different in the case of Cambo, because of course Wee Nicola wants the Scots to believe in oil revenues as the underpinning of their economy post IndyRef2.    To come out now as being opposed to all future oil & gas developments (and somewhat surprisingly, in Scottish waters there are plenty of those 'in the pipeline', so to say) is to slit her own throat.  They don't come much more strategic than that.

Haha!  The SNP spin-merchants will need to be pretty creative on this one, given that there's no end of troublesome leftie-greens lined up to needle her relentlessly.  What price a new SNP "green future" policy that will conjure 100,000 new jobs out of thin air, all faithfully promised to materialise starting, errr, 2024...

ND

___________

**Though not zero ...

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

There are going to be a lot of jobs in decommissioning nuclear plant(s). God knows how they are going to fund it but perhaps the City will raise the finance if Sunak doesn't want to pay.

Of course, with all these e-cars perhaps the nukes (like alpacas) will get a stay of execution

https://www.turbulenttimes.co.uk/news/front-page/energy-no-nukes-today/

E-K said...

Serves the odious little bitch right.

dearieme said...

Why do people bang on about Orbán being a fascist when we have an example right on our doorstep?

Matt said...

The runaway effect (if indeed it occurs) is estimated to happen after a rise of 3C in temperature.

Scenario SSP2-4.5 in the latest IPCC report and below all come in under that estimate. Scenario SSP2-4.5 (intermediate GHG emissions) is where emissions remain around where we are now (see page 18 of https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM.pdf).

Thing is, the developed world is actually reducing emissions now (even the bad old USA) and it's the developing world that is increasing them. Here is a graph of the G10 plus China and India showing the relative change - https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co2-emissions-per-country?tab=chart&yScale=log&time=1950..latest&country=OWID_WRL~BEL~CAN~FRA~DEU~ITA~JPN~NLD~SWE~GBR~USA~CHN~IND~Asia+%28excl.+China+%26+India%29

So we spend between GBP 1.4 and 2.8 trillion pounds to decarbonise the UK economy for what?

China, India and the rest of Asia need to make the change. And it'll happen - before CV-19 we were on track for just about everyone on Earth to be lifted out of poverty by 2050. At which point the new middle class go eco-woke in Asia and the emissions drop. Problem solves itself without us having to stop eating meat, driving ICE car and stopping flying anywhere.

Elby the Beserk said...

@Matt
9:19pm

We're in a Grand Solar Minimum mate. Temperatures will fall for maybe three decades


https://notrickszone.com/?s=SOLAR

https://notrickszone.com/2021/06/07/magnitude-of-recent-surface-solar-radiation-forcing-over-us-is-tens-of-times-greater-than-from-co2/

2004
https://www.mpg.de/research/sun-activity-high

The Sun is more active now than over the last 8000 years
An international team of scientists has reconstructed the Sun's activity over the last 11 millennia and forecasts decreased activity within a few decades


https://notrickszone.com/2020/08/27/astrophysicist-asserts-the-globe-will-cool-1c-during-2020-2053-due-to-an-oncoming-grand-solar-minimum/

"During the last Grand Solar Minimum (17th century), global surface temperatures dipped to the coldest of the last 10,000 years – about 1.4°C colder than today. Dr. Zharkova, an astrophysicist, has determined another imminent drop in solar activity will lead to a 1°C cooling in the coming decades.
From 1645 to 1710, the Sun went into a quiet phase referred to as the Maunder Minimum. During this period, the “surface temperature of the Earth was reduced all over the Globe” (Zharkova, 2020). Cold summers and winters ensued, with glaciers extending onto farmland, sea ice expanding beyond the Arctic, and “frost fairs” on frozen rivers in Europe."




DJK said...

Elby: Let's hope the links you posted are as dubious as they look. Global warming is bad, but global cooling is far, far worse. If the temperature falls a few deg then that's when you get crop failures and mass starvation, as the historical record shows.

Elby the Beserk said...

DJK said...
Elby: Let's hope the links you posted are as dubious as they look. Global warming is bad, but global cooling is far, far worse. If the temperature falls a few deg then that's when you get crop failures and mass starvation, as the historical record shows.

10:29 pm
=====================================================

These blog articles link to peer reviewed papers. Many scientists believe we are going into a cooling phase, but their voices are drowned in the current CO2 hysteria. Me? Given temps were 2 to 3 degrees warmer during the Holocene Optimum, and quite possibly the Roman WP, I can't get excited about the warming since the LIA...

This link brings up endless papers on how it is the sun, not CO2 that is the main climate driver.

https://notrickszone.com/?s=SOLAR

Anonymous said...

When does this cold weather commence, Elby?

Just asking.

Elby the Beserk said...

Anonymous said...
When does this cold weather commence, Elby?

Just asking.

7:26 pm
========================================================================

Started already - witness two bitter winters in North America, and similarly in the Southern Hemisphere.

"RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The forecast of severe cold and snowfall in the mountains of Santa Catarina on Wednesday (28) caused the demand for accommodation to skyrocket. The weather phenomenon in the country’s south should thermometer remain between 0 and 5° C across the state in the early hours of Wednesday and during Thursday. … Continue reading"

NB - GSMs are characterised by, as well as a fall in temperature, (See Little Ice Age) but also with more extreme weather. The reason for this is that changes in the sun's magnetic field in periods of null activity shifts the jet stream - this accounts for the "weird" weather this year -coldest April and May in 100 years, wettest May, the on off summer. So more storms, more droughts (desertification is a symptom of cold - the Sahara had lakes earlier in the Holocene when it was WARMER THAN NOW (shh - the climate scientists don't want you to know that, but we are following the same interglacial pattern as happened between previous ice ages. Viz.

A rapid rise in temperature out of glaciation, then a gradual fall in temps over some 7 or 8k years; in this fall, you also get warm periods, each of which is cooler than the one preceding it. And then eventually, heavy duty glaciation and another ice age. The default for the past 500,000 years or so is that the planet is largely covered in ice.

Very good article on this here.

https://edmhdotme.wordpress.com/2015/06/01/the-holocene-context-for-anthropogenic-global-warming-2/

In fact, we are already at the point in this interglacial at which previous ones have fallen into a new ice age.

Oh and by the way, the end of the last century was saw the most ACTIVE sun for 8k years - for me, a far more convincing reason for the warmth than CO2, which over long periods, shows NO correlation with temperatures - indeed, there is much evidence in the ice cores that temperature drives CO2.

https://www.mpg.de/research/sun-activity-high

Happy to provide more links for related reading. I've been archiving articles and images, usually graphs for some many years now, for reference.

Just so you know, ALL IPCC reports are based on model output, not real world data. Science used to rely on data, now on the output from models which are neither validated, properly initialised (the model run must start with a simulation of climate at that point. Good luck with that. Climate is an open-ended, non-linear, chaotic system and cannot be modelled.

As some NASA scientists have observed.

http://principia-scientific.org/top-nasa-climate-modeler-admits-predictions-mathematically-impossible/

https://notrickszone.com/2019/08/29/nasa-we-cant-model-clouds-so-climate-models-are-100-times-less-accurate-than-needed-for-projections/

And somewhat to my amazement, the climate mafia have publicly admitted that the models run far too hot (i.e they parameterise them to run too hot, in reality)

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2943/study-confirms-climate-models-are-getting-future-warming-projections-right/

"Leading climate scientists conceded that models used to estimate how much the world will warm with rising levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are running too hot.


“It’s become clear over the last year or so that we can’t avoid this,” Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, told Science ­magazine.

The admission is seen as a significant development by scientists who argue that not enough attention has been paid to natural ­cycles in the earth’s climate."

It's the sun, stoopid :-)