Monday, 18 November 2024

The eternal attraction of cushy deals + the easy life

"Nicolas de Warren, president of the French Union of industrial companies with high consumers of electricity, calls on the government to appoint a mediator between the Union - which wants a deal for for cheap electricity - and stated-owned EDF.  "EDF appears to be in a form of denial of the current situation and the very serious loss of competitiveness suffered by French industry [...]. If we do not reach a conclusion quickly, [there are] risks of plant closures and the relocation of production," he warns. According to him, the main point of divergence between EDF and industrial companies is the methodology for defining the cost of nuclear production."

*   *   *   *   *

I've recounted the following story before.  My commercial career was spent in companies that expected to make their own ways in the world, & never looked for subsidies[1].  One day I found myself dealing with ICI (deceased), that blue-chip paragon of British Industry, where I discovered their attitude was "why do a hard day's work when you can lobby government instead?"  Soon, I encountered more firms like that and, aside from initial revulsion, I realised there was an entire slice of the 'commercial' world with a 'business philosophy' I didn't know existed, and needed to understand.    

This entitled sense of "always look for the easy life, we deserve it" soon hit me again in a slightly different variation.  In the firm I was working for we had cannily acquired a long-ish term contract for purchasing gas at a deeply discounted price, from a seller for whom the gas was more-or-less an unwanted by-product.   It wasn't an outright distress sale - they were a perfectly viable going concern - but if they'd wanted to get top dollar for it, they'd have needed to set up, in a hurry, an entire new, specialised commercial department, which doesn't even sound easy and in practice would have been extremely difficult.  Getting shot of the whole lot in one go, for a price they found acceptable, was just fine by them.  The deep discount was the price they were willing to pay (- or rather, to receive).  To give a rough indication: if market price at the time was 100, we settled for 85.  A bloody good deal for us, and they were a willing seller.

Somehow, word of this deal got out (it always does).  So then I get a delegation of senior managers from big industrial companies based in the area where we'd be taking delivery of the gas (some for our own use, some for onward sale).  Their pitch was as follows (and I'm not making this up):

"Now look[2].  We all know you've bought a big slug of gas at a price of 40.  You've got to share this windfall with us.  We'll offer you 50.  You've a moral obligation to sell it to us."

Where they came up with '40' is anyone's guess.  I politely replied that their numbers were way off-beam: that we'd be delighted to sell them gas; and that they'd pay something based around market price[3], like anyone else.

"But whether it's 40 or 45, it costs you much less!  You must sell it to us at cost-plus.  What's 'market price' got to do with it? 

Tempting as it was to give them a little lecture about how house prices have nothing to do with the cost of bricks, I decided it was best to draw the meeting to a close with as little emotion as possible.

Nothing changes.  I suppose you can argue that EDF, as a state-owned monopoly, is in a slightly different position.  But the attitude remains the same:  what's mine is mine, & what's yours is up for negotiation.  Now hand it over

ND

_________

[1] Sometimes they had subsidies almost thrust upon them, but that's a bit different. 

[2] They didn't quite add "you devious London ba-astards", but that was the tone.

[3] After several months when they'd calmed down, we did indeed do a deal for them.  It was at market price, minus half the transportation charges they'd been paying to get gas delivered through the grid.  Given that we could deliver direct, locally, this was the logical win-win arbitrage.  A perfectly good deal for them, as they ultimately recognised.  We got there in the end!  - shame we had to go a fraught round of SillyBuggers first.

11 comments:

dearieme said...

I used to work for ICI. I thought it remarkable that a workforce containing so many highly able people was so ill-directed. It seemed to be thought treasonous to say as much.

Nick Drew said...

Agreed - there were some first-rate people there.

rwendland said...

> main point of divergence between EDF and industrial companies is the methodology for defining the cost of nuclear production

Not surprised, EDF finances seem somewhat in tatters - lucky for it it is French govt owned! ND, do you know quite how bad a financial state it is in? 2024H1 loss was €1.7bn after non-recurring items with net debt at .€54bn.

HPC must be a big part of their problems with estimated cost at £42–48bn, compared to the initial £18bn estimate. EDF had to take a €12.9bn writedown on HPC in their 2023 accounts - lucky for it the Chinese are on the hook for near 30% of the losses.

I see the Telegraph claims Centrica is looking for 5+% of the HPC ownership to pony up £1bn toward the most recent £4bn overrun financing. That implies Centrica thinks that HPC is worth less than £20bn after about £45bn is spent on it.

And re the next EDF EPR boondoggle Sizewell C, I notice EDF 2024H1 summary says it is "fully financed by the UK Government since H1 2024" and UK govt is already committed to Sizewell spending of "£2.5bn as of end of June 2024", and that EDF hope for "deconsolidation" of Sizewell from their accounts soon! Surely the govt cannot go ahead with this with EDF sounding like it is bailing out now.

Nick Drew said...

We'll have a post on HPC/SWC, Mr W.

Govt has committed a great deal more than £2.5 bn to SZC and the reactor is already under construction in France, even though no "FID yet" ! F*****g lunacy.

Anonymous said...

If only that nice Mr Blair hadn't stopped all new nuclear build in 1998!

Anonymous said...

Did you ever meet Subsidy's twin brother - Price Fixing? A bit dodgy and spent a lot of time over in Generation, Transmission and Distribution. Has been edged out of the business by a vicious led by ECO.

Anonymous said...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14098667/Car-firms-Vauxhall-owner-Stellantis-Labour-electric-vehicle-sales.html

"Labour have been warned reducing electric vehicle targets will risk losing billions in investment from the charging industry. Several major car makers are lobbying ministers to lower the 22 per cent electric vehicle sales target imposed this year. Some, including Vauxhall owner Stellantis, have threatened to pull production from the UK entirely over the issue ahead of crunch talks between senior ministers and industry figures this week. Transport Secretary Louise Haigh has insisted that the ‘mandate will not be weakened’ despite the growing pressure from firms. Last night she met with Japanese manufacturer Nissan, which reportedly intends to use the wider meeting with ministers to warn that the UK car industry is reaching a ‘crisis point’. Ms Haigh said afterwards: ‘We’re always open to engaging with industry and I had a very constructive meeting with Nissan, where we discussed how together we can decarbonise our car industry, support jobs and deliver growth. The zero-emissions vehicle (ZEV) mandate, introduced in January by the previous Tory government, means 22 per cent of manufacturers’ car sales this year must be electric, rising to 80 per cent in 2030. Currently, just 18 per cent of UK car sales are electric vehicles."

A UniParty policy.

Anonymous said...

Still, good diesel mechanics will be happy, and good bodywork people as people keep their cars alive. Our newer diesel is < 100k, should be good for another hundred.

Anonymous said...

Billingham and Wilton were hugely impressive to drive past, as was Runcorn. I also worked for ICI one early seventies summer, as a labourer sweeping up at one of their Huddersfield plants. We threw a message in a bottle into the river Colne asking for any young women to get in touch, six months later I received my first and only letter ( addressed "To the Lads") with the opening line "I am a 14 year old blue eyed blonde". A farmers daughter on the Humber estuary had found it. We replied and thanked her for cheering us up!

Nick Drew said...

anon @ 11:22 - you know that the EC mused briefly on banning maintenance of ICE vehicles?

rwendland said...

> If only that nice Mr Blair hadn't stopped all new nuclear build in 1998!

It was actually earlier under Maggie's privatisation that UK new nuclear died. The CEGB had been planning 3 sister plants to Sizewell B, and had got the first planning permission in 1990 following a public inquiry (the first Hinkley Point C idea!). But following the more open revelation of financial data in the privatisation process, it became clear it was hopelessly uneconomic, so no chance private industry would build any sister plants.

Sizewell B leccy had been expected to cost in 1995 of 3.5p/kWh, but it turned out to cost an uneconomic 6p/kWh at 8% discount rate, which inflation adjusted is £128/MWh in 2023 - by amazing coincidence almost exactly the CfD price for HPC leccy had HPC been working in 2023 as promised.