Does Madame Merkel Give Happy Endings?

- or is she just slicing Tsipras' salami?

Happy endings when I say so

Some years ago I found myself in mortal conflict with my employer: a big company so, an unequal contest, it might be thought.  But no.  They devoted a small percentage of the time of one bored HR director (and an even smaller % of a lawyer) to the fray; whereas I was on it 24/7, with 110% motivation.  Everything worked out just nicely.  That's the way some things go.

Other times, though, the big guys are implacable - and patient.

Amid calls for "happy endings", it seems our champion has taken up the can-kicking challenge once more, and given the Greeks another toe-poke along the road.  The next bit of wedge in return for the first of the big reforms: a simple formula.

Painful

And since the Greeks' calendar of repayment dates is a lot longer than the list of reforms, we can see where this one might be going.

That's the trouble with the EC types: they just don't go away, and they reckon history is on their side.  They may be as wrong about that as the Soviets were: but Tsipras won't be able to hold his breath long enough to find out.

 
Happy ending?  We may have to wait a bit to find out.  Ah, but can she kick the can out beyond 2017 ..?

ND

Waiting for Greece to be or not to be

An interesting week watching what will happen in Greece. As ever, the markets move as if it will all be completed in a late-night stitch up on Thursday. All will be well in time for Saturday and the US has chipped in to say don't drop the ball and cause a crisis (irony alert - Lehman Brothers).

Meanwhile, perhaps for domestic consumption, the current Greek PM claims that all is not well and the international community are being big meanies -

 "the obsession of some institutional representatives who insist on unreasonable solutions and are being indifferent to the democratic result of recent Greek elections"

So says Tsipras, but who knows what he really means. What we do know is that the group of international lenders are being intransigent. There is no reasonable way that Greece could ever get its public debt back in order without a large write-off. For political reasons, the Germans don't want that to set a bad example for others. Also, as much as the Greeks hate the Troika they don't want to leave the teat of the EU.

The Greek Government was elected on a populist lie, a fine tradition in the failure of Greek politics, which it cannot deliver.

So either we will get -

- Greece forced by the EU and IMF to concede to endless Austerity. With no choice Tsipras and his Government will have to whip up severe anti-foreigner nationalism to try to dissemble away from reality.

- Greece not agreeing, as Tsipras finally gets the EU cares not one jot for Democracy - a messy Grexit ensues but of course Greece defaults and in 5 years will be a much better place that it is now.

On we go, tick, tock.