Inflation Edges Ahead. Or Not

We keep having this debate, don't we?  Raging inflation just around the corner - or merely a knee-jerk reaction based on misinterpreting various straws in the wind?

Well, today we learn that Eurozone CPI has hit 3%, a ten-year high.  Aluminium is way up, along with most of the supply chain for building stuff (notably, 'green' stuff).  Oil has come off its July peak, but natural gas is actually quite scary.

Then again ... we seem set to be importing a whole new wave of cheap labour.  The day that the Unions long for, when the Brexit / Covid labour shortage** really kicks in and transforms the relationship between capital and labour, never quite seems to arrive.

And people are repaying their mortgages.  And CU is away, so we can't even ask him.

Maybe we should have a compo:  UK CPI for December 2021, anybody?

ND

___________

** Earlier this month we did a short west-country tour, during which we patronised 7 establishments (hotels, restaurants).  Didn't hear a single non-Brit voice amongst any of the staff.  Wouldn't have been able to say that three years ago.

Wind Your Neck In, Tony Blair

Blast from the past ...

We're hearing too much from that man.  Originally penned with Iraq in mind, but the song remains the same.  The usual apologies to Edward Lear. 

They went to war in a Sieve, they did, 

In a Sieve they went to war: 

In spite of all Hans Blix could say, 

At Bush’s command on that fateful day 

In a Sieve they went to war! 

But when no weapons were found in the place 

And everyone cried, “You have no case” 

Said Tony Blair “we’re trusting to luck” 

We don’t care a button! we don’t give a f***! 

In a Sieve we’ll go to war!’

Far and few, far and few, 

Are the scruples of Tony Blair; 

His lies are bold and he’s shameless too, 

And they went to war in a Sieve. 

They went to war in a Sieve, they did 

And totally unprepared 

With not enough armour for soldiers to don 

With too few choppers – the list it goes on 

But Blair, he never cared. 

And every one said, who saw them go, 

“O won’t they be soon undone, you know! 

For the list of shortcomings is terribly long, 

And happen what may, it’s extremely wrong 

To send our boys unprepared!”

Far and few, far and few, Are the scruples of Tony Blair… 

The casualty figures soon started to rise, 

The coffins they soon came in; 

So to cover their arses they lied and lied 

(No sign of remorse for the many who died) 

And they gave the order to spin! 

And they hunkered down at Number 10 

And they lied and they spun and they lied again 

"Though the charges against us be ever so long 

Yet we’ll never admit we were rash or wrong. 

While we have breath, we spin!”

Far and few, far and few, Are the scruples of Tony Blair …

 

ND

"Unite the Union": made me laugh, anway

On the subject of what about the workers  ...  C@W readers are forgiven for not following every cut & thrust of trade union electoral matters: but Unite have been choosing a successor to 'Red' Len McCluskey.  The story so far: there were initially 4 candidates, 3 from the left plus Gerard Coyne, Starmer's man. This throws the left into disarray - Coyne will win if the other three can't settle their differences and choose a single candidate!  Well, to echoing cries of 'careerist', 'splitter', 'traitor' etc, they couldn't.  Everyone hates each other much more than they want anything constructive.

Eventually one did drop out, to back the strongman leftie Steve Turner; and the Left solemnly pile in behind him, telling #4 (one Sharon Graham) in the time-honoured fashion of macho lefties - sorry love, not this time. 

Then on Monday, lefties started posting - you know what, that Sharon might actually win ...

Haha!  And so she has.  (Presumably someone leaked something from the counting office.)  Now everyone from Starmer's office to the assorted lefties are rushing around saying this is a great result.  I believe this is technically known as "accommodate yourself to the new reality, comrade".

More popcorn!

ND

What About the Workers? - weekend reading

An interesting development in leftie thinking about the Labour Party is that it has moved on from the Corbynite framing "we are the 99%, against the 1%",  to a new formulation:  "we are the progressive, 'values-based' urban coalition and we rather hope we might muster 50.1%".

Who gets sidelined in this switcheroo?  Why, the white working class, that's who.  There's many an old-school workerist-marxist who doesn't like the sound of that, and here's a good essay along those lines.  Exerpt (my emphasis): 

... any political platform based on a shared set of “values” rather than a shared economic interest risks turning the actually existing working class into a problematic minority partner in a coalition of do-gooders.  We have already seen the dangers of this kind of liberal condescension, handing the Conservatives endless opportunities to ideologically consolidate their grip on previously Labour voting strongholds with a heady brew of right-wing culture war and strategically targeted public spending.

ND

Footnote[1]:  BTL, decnine & Elby mused on the new 'values' orientation.  On that theme, there's another good article here:

"Labour’s preoccupation with ‘values’ is a basic political error ..."

[2]  Rulings on the bot-naming compo appear at the foot of the previous post.

Weekend: Name That Tesla-Bot!

Elon Musk said he would probably launch a humanoid robot prototype next year, dubbed the “Tesla Bot”, which is designed to do “boring, repetitious and dangerous” work. The billionaire chief executive of the electric carmaker Tesla said the robot, which would be about 5ft 8in tall and weigh 125 pounds, would be able to handle tasks such as attaching bolts to cars with a spanner or picking up groceries at stores ...  Musk said the robot could have “profound implications for the economy” 

So: name that bot!

My proposal?  Why, Botty McBottface! 

ND

___________

Judge's rulings: 

1) Mr BQ wins the compo - perfect! 

2) Andrew (The robot does not exist. It is literally a powerpoint and nothing else) has the solid truth of the matter 

3) E-K is to fill us all in on his evidently excellent news

Nation-building: Blame The Germans

No apologies for returning to Afghanistan on a day like this.  Over the weekend I was chatting to a diplomat who offered the following suggestion.

After 9/11 the US was all for a crash-bang-wallop intervention in Afghanistan to nail OSB, nothing more.  This is indeed how it started: US + UK special forces, linking up with the Northern Warlords.  The shellshock induced in the whole world by 9/11 (Putin was giving a lot of help, and Pakistan could be leaned upon heavily) meant that a lightning campaign was eminently plausible.

Enter the Germans, with the enticing prospect that it could become a NATO mission ... but their price was the Liberal Meddler Overseas Agenda: schools for girls etc etc  Despite his own Defense establishment's opposition, somehow Bush Jnr swallowed this - and thus it became Policy.

So there's a thought.

There are plenty of liberals / progressives (and Paul Mason) wringing their hands over the thwarting of this agenda as I write, even as they despise the USA and (most of) its works.  Well, maybe in 2001 they all swallowed the End of History yarn, and thought America could impose anything on anyone.

ND

UPDATE: 

' “Saving women” was the reason so many of us backed the invasion'

Polly Toynbee, of course.

[1] it would probably have included Trans Rights today

[2] perhaps dreaming to go one better than his father's epic Coalition during Gulf War One (see this lengthy thread)

Weekend listening: 'Revenge of the Real'

This, I reckon, is worth 60 minutes of your listening-time.  The import of the pandemic for all our futures is indeed a very big issue, and all thoughtful contributions are welcome.  More interesting ideas in here than you'll encounter in the average hour of your life.

(Sorry it's from a leftie podcast, but there we go.  Nothing if not broad-minded here at C@W ...)

Actually, it's also interesting in a mild sort of way that it should be hosted by a leftie like Bastani.  Anytime the Real intrudes on wrong-headed thinking is helpful; but surely this'll have given him a few things to ponder quite close to home ...

ND

Afghanistan: why history is really important

 

When you're wounded and left on Afghanistan's plains

And the women come out to cut up what remains

Jest roll to your rifle and blow out your brains ...

 

When we last briefly looked at this, Don Cox BTL offered a link to a piece that suggested the Afghans would surprise us all in combatting the Taliban effectively  (Taliban on the Way to Kabul? Not so Fast…)  Hmmm.  Looks more like a re-run of Vietnam on fast-forward; quicker even than the major ISIS surge in Iraq before external parties intervened.

There's an excellent book, Afghantsy, on the Russian's decade of direct intervention in that benighted land 1979-89 by Rodric Braithwaite, a former UK ambassador to Moscow who (though not a military expert) seriously knows his stuff.   Even the Russians - a bordering nation, prepared to commit a large number of boots on the ground and be quite brutal themselves - couldn't achieve anything, as Braithwaite recounts.   Obviously, we couldn't either - in the 19th century or the 21st.

The book's early chapters cover two centuries of relevant history very well: history that anyone proposing to get involved should have acquainted themselves with before making any decisions at all.  The uncompromising facts about this brutal land and its endlessly turbulent, factional and belligerent people make one wonder if anyone thus historically equipped, Russian or in turn American, would ever have committed their infantry to the place.  Blair?  Just tagging along, as ever.  Which brings us back to the Americans ...

Biden's irresponsible closing contribution on this has been extraordinary - the TV clip being shown yesterday surely confirms him as utterly senile.  He seems capable of dropping any ball and the world once again depends desperately upon the 'checks and balances' of the American system - much under strain during the Trump regime, and to be sorely tested now, it seems.  With its more-or-less unilateral command of US foreign policy (where political 'lines of logistics' are shortest), I ask again: what other half-baked nonsense will the White House perpetrate?

ND

A*++ results day

It is that time of year where I do the appraisals of staff and colleagues, this year in the spirit of transparency and honesty, I thought it best to be public with my comments about Mr Drew.

"It has been a fantastic year for you, whilst the pandemic has meant we have not actually met or spoken, your output has been such that has rightly eclipsed both Plato and Aristotle as go to guides for wisdom in the modern age. With this in mind and recognising your needs to be rightly admired amongst your peer group of course to please your dear old mum too, I can say you have indeed earned fully the special A*++ rating, created in fact just for you."

* 360 review feedback welcome in the comments

* Appraisal grades are in no way linked to the pay round later in the year. 

* White males in receipt of any appraisal grades above fail will be marked down by a minimum 5 levels during the equalisation meetings in September. Sorry old fruit. 

Reality closing in on 'decarbonisation'

Returning from the annual Drew westwards foray - having gloriously reunited with C@W stalwarts from that neck of the (rather damp) woods - I find the wonderful story circulating of Wee Nicola being put on the spot by 'climate protesters' who'd like her support for their opposition to the Cambo oilfield development.

Her turn, then, to be skewered in the run-up to COP26.  Boris has of course already backed off fracking and that Cumbrian coalfield for reason of adverse green COPtics, but those English would-be developments have rather limited** strategic impact on the economy.  Rather different in the case of Cambo, because of course Wee Nicola wants the Scots to believe in oil revenues as the underpinning of their economy post IndyRef2.    To come out now as being opposed to all future oil & gas developments (and somewhat surprisingly, in Scottish waters there are plenty of those 'in the pipeline', so to say) is to slit her own throat.  They don't come much more strategic than that.

Haha!  The SNP spin-merchants will need to be pretty creative on this one, given that there's no end of troublesome leftie-greens lined up to needle her relentlessly.  What price a new SNP "green future" policy that will conjure 100,000 new jobs out of thin air, all faithfully promised to materialise starting, errr, 2024...

ND

___________

**Though not zero ...

Normality beckons - Tube Strikes ahoy

 Cancelled this week but threatened again for the August Bank Holiday, Tube Strikes are back!

I am not sure I can be sure the RMT are on a strong wicket here, the Government are going to have to fill  TfL with a £500 million shortfall again this year due to Covid. This means they have the Mayor over a barrel and many of the long sores that have been welling can be lanced. 

One of them is the pensions for TfL staff, the final salary scheme is very generous. Staff retire at 65 on nearly 50% full salary if they have been employed long-enough. The cost of this is eye-watering for the Government and no wonder, with the private sector having ended these schemes 20 years ago now, that the Government wants to manage this for new starters at least. 

It does not surprise me the RMT want to strike over this, it is the right thing to do to protect their members from their perspective. I just don't think they can win when the Government is already having to subsidise their wages directly to say they should also keep their superior pension benefits.

However this makes a strike quite likely, but having been up to London a bit of late, I doubt too many people will notice and all the buses are empty anyway!

100,000 cases a day and the end is nigh

The "Johnson" Variant indeed. 

By now, 2 weeks are opening up the Country, the group of assorted communists and losers who call themselves Isage (Iceage would be better, given the historic nature of their views) had managed to get Keir Starmer to say the Government were being reckless, that cases would soar and we would be in a new wave of terrible pandemic - and lo the Johnson variant was born. 

The thing that gets me is no one calls all this rubbish out enough. For the whole pandemic the downsides, which in reality have been bad enough, has been really skewed to the downside. 

As if life has not been bad enough, the Government, Labour Party and general media are always willing to give a voice to someone who fears the worst. As a kid I recall people walking around London with the signs above - they were not routinely given any credit and endless media interviews. 

The bug to me about this is it means the pandemic psychosis is going to on for a long time if the media insists on listening to every Cassandra going. The current one they are going to start on is vaccine escape of a new variant, something the drugs companies are happy about because they have easily tweakable vaccines to sell us - not because it means back to square one.

Oh for a summer silly season!

Dominic Cummings: The Silly Season

Sorry about the lack of posting: in my case, two deals to close before 31 July.  And hols soon!  

Anyhow, in the meantime one of our regular anons offered us this BTL yesterday, on the subject of Dom  - Dom Cummings, that is!

"Dom is a tragic case, very bright and driven guy, could have been a real asset to the UK, who gets shafted (like pretty much everyone who works long enough alongside Boris, he's not special), takes it personally and proceeds to make himself unemployable by not just spilling beans but pouring them on the floor and rolling round in them naked. Even I'd think twice about employing him. Real waste of talent. 'Great wits are sure to madness near allied, and thin partitions do their bounds divide' "

(We like the cultured stuff so thanks for that, anon.)

So: by way of a silly-season potboiler  -   would DC have survived at all in former ages, or suffered the fate of Savaranola?  Have his revelations already been priced into Boris' reputation?  Does he have anything more to offer, or is he beyond polite society's pale, a broken reed?   Discuss!

But do remember - the laws of libel apply online ...

ND

Only in the Guardian ...

 Only a Graun sub-editor could let fly with this ...

To win support!  The sheer wickedness of it!

ND

Government poorly served by the civil service

Apologies for the lack of posts from me this month, should improve a bit now. Real world work has been very busy which I guess is a good thing overall.

Watching the unfolding PR disaster of the Government this week has been quite something. I really am lost as to how nearly 18 months into the pandemic, the Government still can never seem to get ahead of its own agenda. 

Today they released the list of occupations where the self-isolation rules won't apply. How is it possible they had not planned for this a week or two ago? A lot of blame is going on Boris and the Tories for this, rightly so as the buck stops with them.

However, what the hell is the civil service up to? Why are the Ministers constantly in a flux of changing medical and governmental advice. It is one thing to accuse the Tories of lacking consistent messaging, which they surely do, but the lack of preparation and foresight sits firmly on the civil service. 

They are the ones enacting the policies of the Government and supposedly considering all the pitfalls and opportunities. Very little of this seems to be going on. As a taxpayer the value for money here is really poor. 

Dealing with a pandemic is a challenge, but the strategy has been right for a long time now after the initial few months of screw ups. It is the delivery which is so poor and the Government should ask questions of the competence of its senior advisors....maybe Dom was right....

Lambasting Liverpool

Dawn and I had a fair amount in common ... a shared South Welsh/Irish heritage via peri-urban council estates; swearing; and a deep love for Liverpool ... Whenever we met up in Liverpool, you could see Dawn revel in its doolally joie de vivre, its Irishness, its Catholicism, and the simple fact that it’s a place where being a socialist doesn’t make you a weirdo.

Maybe that recent endorsement goes some way towards explaining one or two other current news items concerning Liverpool ... 

Liverpool has been stripped of its coveted world heritage status after Unesco blamed years of development for an “irreversible loss” to the historic value of its Victorian docks. The UN’s heritage body concluded at a meeting in China on Wednesday that the “outstanding universal value” of Liverpool’s waterfront had been destroyed by new buildings. The decision is a humiliating blow for the city and gives Liverpool the ignominious distinction of being only the third place to lose the status in nearly 50 years. 

And this:

“Nothing less than a full reset of the Labour Party in Liverpool is needed.” [The report] recommends that Labour nationally takes over candidate selection processes in Liverpool until June 2026, and that it immediately fast-tracks outstanding complaints in the Liverpool City region, completing them within six months. The panel led by former government minister David Hanson says it received evidence identifying a “toxic culture” within the Labour group on the council and “dysfunctional governance running throughout the organisation”. Looking at local party meetings, the internal investigation was “told of a toxic atmosphere in some meetings, not welcoming to members, where often members especially women were targeted for bullying or abuse”. The panel was “presented with evidence of a history of antisemitism that already has led to expulsions and suspensions”

Scouse takeaway:  mmm...

Such a pleasant place!  (And we haven't yet wheeled in David Olusoga to tell us about the slave trade.)   Personally, I'm extremely partial to Beatles music which goes a long way to redeeming other shortcomings: but (strange factoid) Liverpool is, I think, the largest city in western Europe where I've never done any business.  I do have friends there, though.  And scouse is, errrr, a remarkable foodstuff ...

Yet I imagine there are C@W readers with more positive things to say about the place ... so do please let us know!  

"Did you tell me once Father Jack had a trial for Liverpool?"   "No, Dougal, he was on trial, in Liverpool ..."

ND

Getting Forensic on Starmer

Well, it's what he supposed to be famous for ...

So last week there was some self-serving Stamer-stuff shared with the Beeb, and our man had his line, and by heck he'd learned it well.

“I could see tonight what people wanted to know was: ‘That sounds good. It sounds like what I want to hear. But can you earn my trust over the next few months and years into the next general election in order to make me vote for you?’ And that is what I will do. I will sweat blood over those months and years to earn that respect.”

.... "trust must be earned. And what I heard tonight was that people weren’t saying, ‘I’ll never trust you.’ What I heard them say is ‘I’ve lost confidence in Labour, but I could, I could have confidence in the future, but it’s up to you to win it.’ And that’s what I’ll do, you know, sweating blood for the next few days, weeks, months, and years in the next general election."

Now whose fingerprints are all over that form of words?  I have a long memory for these things.  Way back in 1997 after the GE, Peter Mandelson craved respectability on the Left beyond the confines of his nasty little den on Millbank, and decided to stand for the Labour Party NEC.  He did the rounds of the studios in his unctuous way, saying (this is from memory**, but fairly verbatim for all that): 

"What I hear people in the Labour Party saying is: 'We know this chap has had a lot to do with the Election victory, we like that, but we think he should be more accountable, we think he should be on the NEC'."

Let's stick our necks out here and suggest that Mr M never heard a single person say that: he made it up.  (Certainly, he got somewhere close to nul points in the NEC election that year.)  I'm not alone in thinking suspicious things like this: the good lefty folks at Novara media have the same view on a 2021 Mandelson "citation", concerning something he was "told on the doorstep" -  while pounding the streets at the recent Hartlepool by-election, no less (yeah, right - mushy peas in hand, shoe-leather almost worn through, dusk falling) that goes as follows:

“One person said to me ‘Sort yourselves out, sort yourselves out. You picked the wrong brother and you ended up with Corbyn so that’s goodbye to you. When you’ve sorted yourselves out, we’ll look at you again’. That is what the Labour Party has got to do.”

Yup, pretty implausible again.  And I think we may forensically discern the modus operandi.  You come up with a fairly subtle, oblique line that serves your purpose (Trust is a wonderful motherhood-&-apple-pie thing: nobody can object to me wanting some of that.  I'm going to win back people's trust, starting with this: 'I'm so honest and humble that I admit the Labour Party - that is to say, the previous guy - blew it'.)  Next, you ventriloquise it into the mouth of Someone you conveniently met.  Then you report it as your having rightfully been given your marching orders: you've listened carefully, you humbly realise they're right: and by golly, that's what you're going to do!

In short: this is Mandelson-playbook format, with Mandelson known to be very much on the case right now; you, KS with your carefully learned and self-serving lines, are Peter Mandelson's stooge; and and I claim my Boy Scout Political Forensics badge.

ND

____________

** After drafting this I googled on the offchance of finding something corroborative from 1997.  And lo! - this, from the Graun ... 

"people have seen me at the centre of things, doing this, doing that, apparently calling the shots, giving the orders. 'But, accountable to whom?' they ask ... 'Who elected him? Who put him there?' They by and large see me as a force for good in the party and the Government, but they would like to see me be more accountable, and I think they're right". 

Oh, it's so perfectly crafted, you gotta love it!  "Who elected him? ... so I suppose, well, we'd better, errrr, elect him!"

What George Orwell Didn't Realise

All manner of ambitious people are in the market for good psychological insight.  Businessmen, con artists, priests, politicians ...

'Smith!' screamed the shrewish voice from the telescreen. '6079 Smith W.! Yes, you! Bend lower, please! You can do better than that. You're not trying. Lower, please! That's better, comrade. Now stand at ease, the whole squad, and watch me.'

It's long been obvious that no legislation is required to force a large section of society to keep their telescreens on at all times.  

And now we have Peleton:  being shouted at remotely for not keeping up with your communal exercises performed in front of the telescreen.

Orwell was a pretty good leftie psychologist, and reckoned people could be made to love Big Brother (and keep those screens on).  He hadn't perhaps realised that plenty of people love Big Brother without any compulsion whatsoever - and are willing to pay to have him beamed into their homes & watch their movements.  Ah, capitalism!  -  always ahead of the game.

ND

Bank of England - What inflation?

 So as we see record rises in inflation and to continue Nick Drew's theme some key elements are being ignored...

There is a much wider theme at work, there is a huge shortage of computer chips due to raw materials shortages. The big issue is the change in demand with cars now needing more chips as well as phones and most things electrical - the supply chain for the near doubling of demand is going to take a couple of years to fix. Plus China, as ever, interferes where it can with raw materials and supplies to Taiwan which is the home of much of the world's chip production (recent military manoeuvres too on the China side of the Taiwan strait are fund too....).

So used cars, used computers etc are all seeing huge bump in price, as are say new cars which are limited in number. 

Against this background, the Bank of England issue another £1.5 billion of quantitative easing this week to try to get the UK economy booming again.  Err....excuse me? Wage inflation is at over 5% this year, supply of goods is restricted. There are only two outcomes.

Stagflation - inflation but little economic growth or just plain old inflation with higher wages and prices in a spiral. 

The genie is out of the bottle, last time this happened, it was 20 years to get it back in. Plenty of time over the summer for us to reflect on how this will impact the Economy, markets and Government. 

Inflation (part 94)

Not for the first time this year, I can't help drawing attention to surging energy prices:  they are continuing strongly.  Wholesale gas in Europe has doubled (sic) in the past 4 months, with electricity, coal and carbon rocketing also.  I don't recall anything quite like this since oil went to $147 for a nanosecond in 2008.

The recovery programmes are starting to kick in.

Post-covid wages are obviously under huge upwards stress in many sectors.  Catering staff can't be found, as any trip to the pub / restaurant / hotel will readily confirm.

Where on earth is this heading?   Very uncomfortable for some - even the triple-locked pensioner might be queasy.  Sunak has balls if he seriously proposes to short-circuit that.

ND