Sunday 19 August 2007

Sunday Business Round Up - 19 August

Well Business was always going to get back to the news eventually after a few years of solid growth and good news; now come the harder times where we pay for the largess.

Given that no one has a clue what will happen over the next 6 weeks or so, the papers are sticking more to analysis and some doomy predictions to help the headline writers.

Big Chill Ahead - is the Telegraph take on the matter, fearing the losses in the City will affect the wider economy.

Nothing to fear -Also the Telegraph leads with comment saying that nothing is fundamentally wrong and all will be fine. Please note my post of yesterday below!

US rate cut likely - Says the Guardian. However I feel this would be a huge mistake you don't cope with a crisis caused by cheap lending by making lending even cheaper.

Even the UK can expect a rate cut
- The normally Bullish times goes into a writing meltdown predicting all sorts of strange events. Worth a read because it reads like a conspiracy theory!

But sub-prime crisis is already here - A much better piece from the Times showing why the crisis in mortgages is here to stay.

BA to move on Open Skies
- The airline, of terribly battered brand of late, is to try and use its muscle in Europe to spur growth it cannot get in the UK.

CBI disagree with Tory plans - The most sensible thing said by the Tories, to pull out of crazy EU regulations on working practices, is criticised by the CBI; what a strange place the country has become in the last decade.

Miner digs up huge Emerald - 10,000 carat, that is big!

Brits shop USA - but make the most of it as the £ won't stay at $2 for long!

EMAP still trying to break-itself up - The misfiring media group may yet save its reputation by a valuable break-up .


Steven_L said...

So what going on then? In laymans terms is it now a case of 'sell sterling'?

CityUnslicker said...

Steven - Well I am hesitant to say because the swings are so wild who knows what the future holds?

However, Sterling is not a currency to flee too in a real global slow down as the UK is so exposed to global trade flows.

Therefore, if things get worse, the currency will depreciate, which is probably good for us overall; except if you are planning a holiday!

Wolfie said...

I disagree with the suggestion that the UK mortgage market is appreciably exposed to a sub-prime threat. As a proportion of total outstanding lending its pretty small. The risk to the UK mortgage industry is simple over-exposure to interest rate fluctuations and buy-to-let inflation.

I suspect a greater issue is the dominance of the markets in the overall UK economy. Less bonuses, job losses and uncertainty will be our problem which paints a picture of a slowing market and not a calamity.

I agree that sterling is not in a good position. This has been evidenced in the recent volatility by fleeing to Yen and I suspect that we will be sinking along with the dollar if we aren't careful.

CityUnslicker said...

Wolfie - You are right to point out that this is not a problem at the same level as the US. However, I know of a few companies who are in difficulties. as you say, the greater issue is general over-exposure to interest rate rises.

Jeremy Jacobs said...

CBI, Bilderberg lackies!

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