Thursday 1 January 2009

2009 Predictions

Going on the last 2 years results ND and I get about 2/3 of these right. This year we limit ourselves to just 4 each:

1- the wholesale price of natural gas will fall significantly, with big repercussions for producers and the opportunity for Europe at long last to kick-start a proper internal market for gas
2- both the CPS and HMRC will effectively collapse under the administrative weight of upsurging recession-related crime and tax issues. (The government will then spirit away the problems by moving the goalposts, and lying)
3 - Obama will quickly be tested by several outbreaks of international 'events', including the Caucasus (watch Armenia), Taiwan and South Africa
4 - BHP will be in the news (and not all publicity is good ...)

1-Oil will be the investment opportunity, with never to be seen again low valuations in oil companies. By year end oil will be at least $50 and possibly more; fill yer boots.
2- The US Dollar will fall dramatically by mid-year when the deleveraging will come to an end. This will force China off its dollar peg; overall it will cause another bout of mayhem in the world economy
3- There will be a Gilts strike (i.e. Government failing to sell its bonds) causing a large cut in public spending either by the budget or during an emergency budget.
4 - UK inflation will fall below zero very briefly, but shoot back up much to the surprise of the BOE and Treasury

1- Retailers. Hundreds of bankruptcies are just around the corner. The January sales bounce will be very short lived. First 6 months will be awful for shops and many will be under real pressure by 3rd quarter. Debenhams and HMV look like the most shaky of the big names but there will be plenty more. The predicted collapse of 15 major chain stores looks optimistic if the terrible USA retail figures for 2008 are repeated here {Footfall 30 -40% down on 2007.}
Invest only in retailers with a strong online presence.
2- Public sector pay will cause big problems for the government as only a tiny increase to minimum wage is made. Strike outbreaks predicted. Union trouble and MP rebellion over privatisation of the Royal Mail.
3 - Election speculation will run riot right up to the local/European elections. Mr Brown will have to actually declare that there will be no election to stop the speculation as more and more evidence of secret campaigning leaks out. There will not be an election in 2009.
4 - Print media and television will have a torrid time as advertising revenue dries up and may well see the merger of some and end of others of the big giants. ITV will complain like mad about a level playing field. It won't do any good. Licence fee up.
Plenty of today's magazines won't be available next year.

Please leave your predictions in the comments, it was fun to track them this year.

Happy New Year.


Anonymous said...

my prediction - we'll shortly find that online sales have been hit even harder than high street sales.

Steven_L said...

1. By the end of the year unemployment will bottom out and institutional investors will feel confident enough to call the bottom of the market for mortgage backed securities. Financial journalists will begin discussing the possibility of write-ups, politican journalists will start to talk about the biggest heist in history. New Labour will try and make Gordon Brown look like a genius for owning half of RBS. (Buy Barclays/JP Morgan?)

2. Obama will completely fail to make good his rhetoric on doing something about China's policy of currency manipulation. He will however spook the currency markets by persuing a bigger deficit than Bush did. (Sell USD v Yen/Swiss Francs, buy gold?)

3. The pound will slip below the Euro possibly sparking a quick run on it, the government will face the stark choice of 'doing nothing' or trying to defend it sparking comparisons to Black Wednesday. New Labour's poll ratings will fall when this happens creating an opportunity for the Tories. (sell £ v Euro?)

4. Money will leave the USD looking for a new home, the weakness of the £ and UK blue chips will cause a slow rally in the FTSE 100 over the year. (Buy blue-chip miners?)


Steven_L said...

Sorry, #4 should read 'the weakness of the £ and UK blue chips will look attrctive to investors causing'

Tuscan Tony said...

ONline point is good - I know several people who do not shop any other way. With you on the2009 election - the writing is on the wall for many marginal-seat MPs, and there is absolutely no possibility of a substantial number of them finding as lucrative a job outsite the state bubble. My own "seven crystal balls" predictions are also a strong possibiilty.

Jon said...

Yes yes, no election until the last possible moment; and perhaps not even then if the Gorgon declares martial law.

Improbable? Yes, but I wouldn't put it past him.

JPT said...

I predict a riot.

Or several even.

Houdini said...

1)Oil will make a price bounce back. The pound won't significantly against the dollar, but the Euro will fall back dramatically.

2)Watch out for the Ukraine and other ex USSR satellites getting pissed off with big brother Russia.

3)Israel will finally begin to realise that their occupation is part of the problem (they know this already) and will begin a real dialogue to end hostilities with the terrorists they have fed and wanted to keep up to now, driven by their own people and a pissed off USA.

4)Labour will fall below any meaningful calculation of support.

5)Obama will prove a disaster, a ditherer and a slave to others.

6)The Far East will collapse belatedly following the West.

7)The FTSE will remain mediocre.

I'll think of more later.

AntiCitizenOne said...

A Contract Managment company with lots of PFI exposure will go bust, causing plenty-o-headaches in both the mutual benefit and extortion funded sectors.

Anonymous said...

Buy Kiwi dollars. Please.

Anonymous said...

My prediction - we will be amazed to discover that nobody knows anything.

Except: £ will continue to weaken against $, and recover some strength against €.

And £ will merge with €, but that's not for this year.

lilith said...

The Kiwi Dollar will collapse, and Ireland will go tits up.

Unknown said...

Predictions for 2009:

1. That credit card balances will stabilise with a larger-than-ever number of card balance holders revolving (i.e., not paying off the balance). The capital charge associated with this will push MBNA and Capital One dangerously towards Chapter 11, only to be saved at the last moment.

2(a). The mortgage market will ease in Q2 2009, if only because UKG will become the lender of last resort and issue gold-standard RMBS and CMBS guarantees with five-year tenor.

2(b). UKG will become aware of the power that it wields over the UK banking industry and will *insist* (using its shareholding) that banks start lending again.

3. There will be a further recapitalisation of the banks that makes the 2008 one look like so much cold water. This will be THE big one, and will essentially cause all banks in the UK to be owned by the taxpayer.

4. As GTF (Gordon-The-F*ckwit) tries to stave off the issues associated with 1-3 above, he'll become more paranoid than ever before, including the belief of the Armed Forces intention to unseat him. This will result in a mass increase in numbers of battalions in Afghanistan.

5. Obama will be sworn in on January 20th and there will be a massive upswing from the rednecks in threats against him. The US Secret Service will need to increase their manpower as a consequence thereof.

Newmania said...

Borrowing will get out of control bringing unsustainable pressure onto Sterling , interest rates will have to rise and Public sector pay will rise up the agenda quickly
Talk will be of elections and will get back to one issue , who will tax least .Bioth Parties with a chance of wining will admit that tax rises are unavoidable but the blizzard of spin will obscure the issue

Cameron will have to judge between saying the popular and the right thing .

The Libs will start to rebel against Cleggs move right

Croydonian said...

Hmm, I don't forsee trouble for Armenia. Yerevan and Ankara are well on the way to making nice, Azerbaijan lacks the clout to do anything about the de facto union of Armenia and Artsakh (or Nagorno Karabakh if you prefer), and Moscow has historically always had Armenia's back.

Anonymous said...

1 Riots in China at year end
2 Browns resigns after summer recess citing ill health(he is bonkers)
3 $ weakness in Q3
4 Gold rush
5 IMF offer UK SDR's

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