Thursday 22 January 2009

CU trading Portfolio round-up

A poor week for the markets, but some signs of a crawl back today. Where is the bear market rally all the market makers were chatting about in December?

Anyway - progress update on my own portfolio as I have not done one for ages:

British Airways - 154, had a nice run up to 180 where the shorters got in and took the price down again. Long-term I like BA now, cheap oil does wonders for its profits, competition is less, good management too. Possible upsides with merger speculation. Lots of short selling in it though. I am in at £2 per share.

Tullow Oil - yeah Baby! best stock in the FTSE 100 recently. Massive finds of oil in Uganda and Ghana, beyond the managements dreams. Low oil has kicked the share price but it is still 40% up in 2 months. Either way, current price of 625 even after today's £400 million palcing. A takeover approach is likely from one of the big boys like Exxon. Still lots of short positions in it make rises hard to sustain.

RBS - Played a blinder, by chasing losses I have managed to lose even more than I originally would have lost. 94% down today....

First Group - Not helped by downgrades, a long-term hold. but I would say that having bought a share for £5 that is now worth £3. Very much regretting the oversight of a stop-loss on that buy. Hopefully low oil prices (subject ot pound not collapsing) will help what should be a defensive stock.

Sibir Energy - Averaged into this at £2 compared to £1.27 today, which is still a whopping way up from the current price. However, this is a very solid company which I fully expect to climb back when oil recovers - another one to hold for a year or two then....

Minerva plc - Small punt on this waiting for a proposed takeover, price has droped 20% since the stake building by KIFIN stopped at 29%. Hopefully patience will pay off.

China Fund - Still down 25%, much better than it was a year ago. Long-term hold

Brazil Fund - Down 40%, quite surprised as I expect Brazil to be the least hit out of the major economies overall. Long-term hold.

Gold & Silver ETF's- Not strctly stocks but have done well out of buying in and out of ETF's. Keeps making up for the losses on everything else recently. Plus funded some terrible punts on Urals Energy which were disastrous.

Corporate Bond Fund - Up 20% and has 15% yield. Shame I did not have the resources at the time to put more into it late last year when it was bottoming out.

Overall, still nearly 30% off the highs despite some good trading recently. Not a pleasing situation for me. Have got much better over the past year so I'' take it as a crash course learning module. Sticking to Gold, Oil and Bonds will hopefully see a much improved return in 2009.


Steven_L said...

I haven't traded anything for months, but I'm in panic mode about the sterling cash I'm holding.

Any views on my latest theory CU?

Could it be the case that the banks the government have taken on hold more sterling liabilities (i.e. our deposits and sterling interbank loans) and more foreign currency assets (i.e. US mortgages and corporate paper from all over the world) and that a devaluation of sterling will have the effect of deleveraging them.

Once this has happened the gvt print money, buy corporate paper and mortgage debt from the banks for cash and kick start lending / money supply growth.

Both the devaluation and the money supply growth kick start inflation eating away consumer debt, kick starting spending and reducing the trade deficit and the recovery is underway?

Could this be the plan? Nuke our savings in the hope of being able to annouce economic growth by May 2010?

Is this feasible or am I turning into one of those conspiracy nuts for thinking that anyone actually knows what they are doing?

Anonymous said...

I sold all my shares 9 months ago, with 2 exceptions: tobacco & oil. At least they pay dividends.

CityUnslicker said...

SL - It is not that mad, hence my own position of owning debt and assets rather than cash.

only holed by the fact my assets keep falling in value anyway...

Steven_L said...

Hmm, thanks CU, are these debt funds accessible to the great unwashed? Any websites worth reading?

CityUnslicker said...

debt I won is a large mortgage and overdrafts....

other debt to invest in would be bond funds. I am in globall AAA corporates - still good yields at the moment.

Sovereign debt could be you say.

Savonarola said...

As a complement to gold ETF's look at gold miners. You want smaller companies close to production with money in the bank to ensure no calls. Two that qualify Centamin and Central Rand Gold. Both AIM.
For a real punt Moto Gold. Have licence for large area in NEast DRC. Outstanding issues iwth DRC Govt and minority partner now sorted and Cube Consulting have just upgraded Identified and Inferred reserves. Sam Jonah big stakeholder and Chairman.

You will need patience. All have good chance of being 20 baggers within five years.

CityUnslicker said...

Sav - thanks for that. love getting good tips like that. Welcome to posting here.

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