Situtation normal?

Compare and contrast the charts below, on the one hand there is a nice rise in US Bond yields (which is making markets jittery - of course, should be the opposite, but what do the machines and algo's know,eh?). This is a sign at last of the end of the Financial crash, 11 years after it began. Historically that is about right, for major financial crashes. Interestingly though on a longer term view, US yields still need to go above around 4% for them to be at 'normal' levels. That may be possible this year with Trump's pump-primed US economy kicking into gear.

Let's hope the more nervous and sclerotic UK economy can follow in due course. 

CU trading Portfolio round-up

A poor week for the markets, but some signs of a crawl back today. Where is the bear market rally all the market makers were chatting about in December?

Anyway - progress update on my own portfolio as I have not done one for ages:

British Airways - 154, had a nice run up to 180 where the shorters got in and took the price down again. Long-term I like BA now, cheap oil does wonders for its profits, competition is less, good management too. Possible upsides with merger speculation. Lots of short selling in it though. I am in at £2 per share.

Tullow Oil - yeah Baby! best stock in the FTSE 100 recently. Massive finds of oil in Uganda and Ghana, beyond the managements dreams. Low oil has kicked the share price but it is still 40% up in 2 months. Either way, current price of 625 even after today's £400 million palcing. A takeover approach is likely from one of the big boys like Exxon. Still lots of short positions in it make rises hard to sustain.

RBS - Played a blinder, by chasing losses I have managed to lose even more than I originally would have lost. 94% down today....

First Group - Not helped by downgrades, a long-term hold. but I would say that having bought a share for £5 that is now worth £3. Very much regretting the oversight of a stop-loss on that buy. Hopefully low oil prices (subject ot pound not collapsing) will help what should be a defensive stock.

Sibir Energy - Averaged into this at £2 compared to £1.27 today, which is still a whopping way up from the current price. However, this is a very solid company which I fully expect to climb back when oil recovers - another one to hold for a year or two then....

Minerva plc - Small punt on this waiting for a proposed takeover, price has droped 20% since the stake building by KIFIN stopped at 29%. Hopefully patience will pay off.

China Fund - Still down 25%, much better than it was a year ago. Long-term hold

Brazil Fund - Down 40%, quite surprised as I expect Brazil to be the least hit out of the major economies overall. Long-term hold.

Gold & Silver ETF's- Not strctly stocks but have done well out of buying in and out of ETF's. Keeps making up for the losses on everything else recently. Plus funded some terrible punts on Urals Energy which were disastrous.

Corporate Bond Fund - Up 20% and has 15% yield. Shame I did not have the resources at the time to put more into it late last year when it was bottoming out.

Overall, still nearly 30% off the highs despite some good trading recently. Not a pleasing situation for me. Have got much better over the past year so I'' take it as a crash course learning module. Sticking to Gold, Oil and Bonds will hopefully see a much improved return in 2009.