Monday 26 January 2009

Weekly Outlook : Lots to Barc about

Another week, another crisis?

I hope not. However, I will be interested to see what happens to Barclay's this week. After last weeks share crash - down 66% in a week, there is a limit to how much more the shares can fall.

Normal city trading would suggest a strong rebound is due, but if it really is institutional investors selling out then the day-trading community will have its work cut out trying to find enough cash to engineer the re-bound.

In all of this in normal times you would fully expect the CEO and Chairman to resign, perhaps the finance director too. At least the new boys could then take over and tell the truth with some credibility. We do not live in normal times though. The City is credulous of Barclay's exec's after they tried so hard to win ABN Amro - had they achieved victory they would now all out of jobs like their ex-colleagues at RBS.

The week will be determined by Barc on Monday and Tuesday - if there is stability and a recovery then the next phase of the crisis may be postponed for a few weeks. Certainly RBS is trying to hog the headlines to get some positive press about itself....

10 comments:

Bill Quango MP said...

- Shares in Barclays (BARC.L) jumped 40 percent on Monday, snapping a nine session losing streak as the under-pressure bank said it sees significant pretax profits in 2008 and is not seeking any further capital raising.-Reuters

Unsworth said...

So what happens when the pre-tax profits figures actually do appear - and contradict this optimistic forecast?

Anonymous said...

Should we be boycotting barclays again?

Anonymous said...

I think that investors who have cash will step in at some point and then the stock will rise again.

idle said...

I daytraded Barc with gusto today.

I know Varley, albeit only slightly, and he is honest. Notwithstanding the ABNAmro foolishness, he's also quite bright. So I was inclined to believe the statement this morning and I think that the full explanation of write downs and marks-to-market that accompany the results in a few weeks will probably satisfy the institutions. I'll buy them at the open tomorrow again unless I read something spooky between now and then.

Bill Quango MP said...

70% up.

Steven_L said...

Their 9% bond is still yielding over 14.5%.

Has anyone got an explanation why 'perpetual' bonds are yielding so much more than dated ones?

Raedwald said...

Bugger. When I blogged on Friday about JPM's silly graphic that did BARC down I had a damn good scrummage around their published financial info that made them look quite a good buy. And I damn nearly did.

As the ES notes tonight, to really bring confidence they need to share the methodology by which they classed the £8bn of bad debt write-downs. But hey.

CityUnslicker said...

Well timed post If I may say so myself.Shame I was too busy to do much about it, still RBS went up and I got into them (again, chasing losses) at 11.5p.

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