Monday, 26 January 2009
All clear sounded, Barclays up 73%?
Well, my post on BARC yesterday proved to be right. Today was a day the markets decided that perhaps Barc and its muckers are not quite as screwed as we thought. Interesting to note that Barc's write-down loss was actually as much as RBS, sans ABN-Amro.
Even Lloyds perked up. As the US is steady tonight in terms of close I would not be surprised to see the rally continue a bit tomorrow before profit taking on Wednesday or later in the week.
So the question in the media will be, is this it? Did 'we' just win the high-noon shoot-out?
Sadly, I think not. There is another delay until the next leg of the crisis in a few weeks. I note Gold and Silver have spiked to over $900 and $12 respectively and are staying there. In the US another bank went down on Friday - there is a long-way to go yet. The UK Government's insurance plan is not a bad one, albeit very late in the day. However, if banks balance sheets deteriorate again there are no bullets left. Nationalisation will make us vulnerable as Iceland has been.
A good battle, but the war is not going well overall.