Thursday, 9 April 2009

House Building back in fashion

The markets have been snoozing really this week, with volumes very low and today they are even lower. There has not even been much speculation on the change in Bank of England base rate, quite rightly, as it was left at 0.5%. The first time there has been no cut in 6 months.
However, much to the dismay of Alice and House Price Crash, it does seem as though the government have engineered a blip in the housing market. Yes prices are still falling, but volumes of sales are up, as are mortgage approvals. It is all very early days, but in share price terms it has been amazing. Taylor Wimpey are up 50% in a week, as are Barratt's. No doubt it may be too late to join the throng, but things have come off the bottom.

The Banks shares too like LLoyds and RBS are way up, over 100% off their lowest points of the year.

There is still an odds-on chance of another leg down in the market and the economy, but signs of life in the these bombed out sectors is a good thing; perhaps we are not all going back to live in caves after all. Something to be cheerful for over Easter.

12 comments:

not an economist said...

Have to be honest any upturn in housing market striked me as being the beginning of yet another bubble - a consequnce of the easy monetary policy foi the last few months. I would now expect yet another crash to come.

Ed said...

I was aghast at the government's policies until the other day when I decided that actually they have been quite clever. Pushing enormous amounts of paper through the system might just stave off a horrific depression and we can engineer a soft landing later on.

I know several people who are buying flats and houses at excellent values and they are confident that even if we are not quite at the bottom prices will soon start to rebound strongly. There are now plenty of good mortgage deals available.

roym said...

i see the BoE is only a third of the way through their 75Bn. Should we be pleased at the progress of QE? or is it still far too early?

CityUnslicker said...

NOE - the government need another bubble. I am starting to go with the anti-fiat currency mob. continuous bubbles until the final pop. But really, i think house prices will still fall alot, just not at the pace. You can't say a total 45% fall is not a sufficient correction. We are already at the long-term average price, so anything down from here is the expected over-correction.

BE - The paper has gone nowhere of late. There is no soft landing for you as a taxpayer, the medicine is drunk, the bill to come.

ROYM - Seems to me very Japanese, money shuffling around the banking system to no obvious effect as yet.

Ed said...

Nobody is forced to use the fiat currency. There is no law to say that you shouldn't price your contracts in gold, acres, bushels of wheat.

Houdini said...

The FTSE is still below 4k and there are reasons to be cheerful?

Are you being taken in too by the spin? (I know you're not, but still....)

Judy said...

This dead cat keeps bouncing, by the end of the day, it will crack the pavement and go underground.

Ed said...

A dilapidated FTSE is a good buy opportunity for those of us with still a few years on the clock. Why should we spend our whole careers bailing out the oldies?

Electro-Kevin said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Electro-Kevin said...

Blue Eyes.

A business opportunity for you.

Open up an OAP care home with a field next to it.

Put a donkey in the field and feed it using food bought only with charitable donations and call the field a 'donkey sanctuary'

You'll make shit loads out of this business dealing with your clients both in life and in death.

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