Tuesday 5 May 2009

Gordon Brown is invincible.

Gordon Brown is invincible.

He must be.
Checking back on blogs, such as ourselves, Raedwald, Mr Wadsworth, even Mr Dale there has been a visible descent of tone when writing about Gordon Brown since 2007. A change of style in discussing Prime minister Brown's leadership. From initial scepticism, but respect for his office and of his appointment, followed by some bafflement, on issues such as the very clearly demonstrated weakness of his cabinet. To smirking behind the hand at his misfortunes { Like the Olympic torch, or hiding in Lisbon.}
Then came unrestrained guffaws at his by election defeats and paint on the head, right up to the current outright pointing and laughing at the boy with his head stuck in the park railings and a "kick me really hard" sign taped to his shorts.
The bloggers, and so the voters, respect for the Prime Ministers office, and the Prime ministers ministers, has reached new lows. He has lost all credibility except to his die hard supporters.

No one thinks twice about saying "Gordon's bonkers". The PM's full name need not be used. Clearly the phrase "Gordon's bonkers" refers to Brown not Ramsey.Yet it could equally, if differently, apply to both. But it doesn't. Bonkers, crackers, loony tunes, mental applies to just one person.

He is still here. Disaster after disaster, followed by poll drop after poll drop, have not hurt the man. Ridicule, revelation, economic catastrophe, social inadequacy, lies, smears, spin and failure after failure have had absolutely no effect on his position as leader. It was tenuous a year ago..it is no worse now.
Brown will continue looking over his shoulder for plotters, and the rumours, like this weekends tales of Blears, Harman, Cruddas, Johnson seeking to depose him will continue. Balls, Straw, Smith, McFall next week.
But lets face it. No plot to oust him is coming.

The highest level of peacetime debt ever. the worst housing figures ever. The worst individual leader ratings for a year from election ... pick anything you like. Industry order books, car sales, crime, healthcare provision or even his personal favourite of poverty. They are all bad.
Add the worst Euro election polling for a sitting government later on and ..He will still be here.

There just isn't a good enough reason to ditch him. Things may, in fact almost certainly will, get worse, but so what? They are already past the point of retrieval.
£100bn - £200 bn - £600 bn of debt. So what? As a colleague might say. How many seats will be saved by switching to another PM? Not enough to make a difference. Its hard for the Labour party to sink slower or lower than is already happening. If you are going to lose by 5 goals, is it worth the bloodbath and schisms just so you only lose by 4 goals? No.
So, no matter how bad it gets,the tipping point was reached a while back. Gordon survived. The banana kid lost with a very weak speech, while Gordon was getting his missus to make the faithful feel sorry for him. It worked.

Gordon Brown is a level 12 political black wizard. Miliband is a neophyte elf. In the hard politics of the labour party, it would take something mighty powerful to challenge him. The 20/1 bet that he will be gone by Xmas shows the reality of how unlikely he is to be ousted.
In the Long Good Friday Hoskins asks " is there anyone from the old days who could be doing this..challenging me?" Then he reflects " Nahh. They're all dead." Brown toppled his rivals long ago.

So let us hope he starts looking a little less like someone recently back from a trip to a sausage factory in Mexico city as he should really be sleeping very well indeed.
From now until next May he can cuddle up safe in the knowledge that no matter how bad it gets, he really is unsackable.


Anonymous said...

You might be right, but I think it will depend on a gilt strike. According to the Spectator, Treasury mandarins are worried about it happening before autumn. My guess is before then. It would mean a collapse of the currency, so my guess is he'll be swept from office before Xmas. There's not much point putting a bet on though, as the pound won't be worth anything then.

Electro-Kevin said...

One thing that strikes me about the Credit Crunch is how it exposes Brown's duality. For one whose party is so 'worried' about CO2, profligate spending on tick being curtailed should be viewed as a good thing. After all - what can be worse for the environment than a nation spending way beyond its means.

But no. Brown wants to stimulate the housing boom again - he desperately wants to reinflate the credit bubble (VAT cuts)

So obviously they know that global warming is a load of old krap (whether it's happening or not)

Let's start mining for coal again. The only real reason we stopped was because we couldn't do it cheaply enough. For various reasons we can't afford NOT to now. It might be our one saving grace.

Nick Drew said...

No one thinks twice about saying "Gordon's bonkers"Even the BBC ! with the lead item on the news being Prescott's gurning impression of Brown's 'smile'.

In the old days (1997-2003), Campbell would have been on to the Beeb in a nanosecond, getting the item pulled and having the editor fired. (Of course he wouldn't need to after the first occasion, because self-censorship would kick in thereafter.) Now lèse-majesté rules.

Among several reasons for Brown hanging on, is that he's having his resistance stiffened by the EU. It being widely held that there would need to be a Gen Elec shortly after he quit; and the Tories having promised a referendum if the 'Treaty' hasn't already been ratified by all ... we're stuck with him until force majeure intervenes

Mick said...

If there's a gilt stike, he'll just pass rules making pension funds hold a large part of their assets in UK gilts.

So no problem there!

Sackerson said...

Don't count on the Thane of Fife losing the General Election, either. If the anti-G vote splits between NuCon and Revived Lib, and benefit dependants vote for their wallets...