- in the first place, revised GDP figures out today for Q1 2009 show the economy lost 2.4% of GDP in a single quarter. The worst performance since 1958. This is 20% worse than the first estimate released on 21st May 2009.
- As such, then next release by the ONS of GDP stats will be on 21st July or thereabouts for Q2. There is a general feeling that Q2 has not been as bad as Q1 by a long way. However, there has still been significant economic contraction.
- This means that any fall over 1.1% will mean GDP has already fallen by 3.5% this year. In the first two quarters. This is the fall predicted by Darling for the whole of 2009 - let alone just the start.
- So, IF Darling had any honour, he would resign, as the budget he has signed off on is quite clearly blow to pieces within 6 months and therefore the UK will need to quickly redress its spending position in line with the new lower GDP.
Will he do it though? I don't see the Government having a good record on falling on points of honour, or even dishonour. Instead perhaps they will come up with some more lies about how growth will magically appear in the second half of the year to balance out the falls in GDP.
This Government is well to course to bequeath to its successor the worst fiscal mess in the history of the Great Britain; although I have yet to see their plans for Danegeld (in the modern world, perhaps this is the IMF?)