Darren Jones: a different kettle of fish

In the right hands, the plumb job in Government is Chief Secretary to the Treasury.  Seat in Cabinet.  Just below the radar, but enormous power.  In charge of government spending - everybody needs to be your friend.   The best springboard imaginable: the partial list below is revealing[1].

And now, CSttT Darren Jones has sprung into another such job: CSttPM, no less, invented specifically for him, it seems (and to help dig the Starmermobile out of the rut in which its wheels are spinning idly as the engine races).  Yes - Darren, the sharp, confident, facetious smartarse, is in charge of more than just spending now.  Let's see what he does with it:  because such jobs and such people are in the type of pivotal position that can see significant results along several axes, personal as well as political and practical.

In business, the term once used was "troubleshooter" - a person appointed to get something Big & Awkward done, often away from the corporate centre.  Julius Caesar is perhaps the greatest example in history; there's Wellington and Slim in British military annals (and many other besides, of course).  Douglas MacArthur: the list could go on.  Right now, Putin has Sergei Kiriyenko[2].  It's happened to me three times in my career: being given plenipotentiary powers in the hope I could fix some unexpected, pressing difficulty.

The thing is: you're never sure how things will turn out - with the task itself, and what the Man does afterwards.  Caesar came back in triumph from Gaul - and immediately mounted a successful coup.  MacArthur had a coup in mind himself.  Wellington was a bit more constitutionally correct when he had the whole of Europe at his feet: he still became PM.  But Slim just quietly slipped away[3].

The troubleshooter appointment will always be given to someone believed to be capable - that's the whole point - but often also to someone viewed as maverick, which can give rise to the problematic aspect of what happens after the hoped-for success; the unwanted consequence of the Faustian pact.  And if he wasn't (identifiably) a maverick before the assignment, well, lots of power and a free hand, sometimes exercised way out over the horizon ... it can turn a man's head.  Capable, and hitherto reliable, doesn't always mean predictable.

We shall follow Mr Jones' progress with interest.

ND

____________________

[1] Past CSttT's include: James Callaghan, Geoffrey Howe, Michael Portillo, Alistair Darling, Danny Alexander, Liz Truss, Rishi Sunak.  (Oh yes, and Chris Philp, whose ambitious little heart nearly exploded at the prospect he had it made, when he briefly held the job.)

[2]  If you haven't heard of him, well most people haven't.  Aye, there's the wonder of the thing - as Sherlock Holmes said in related circumstances

[3]  Zhukov, of course, was effectively banished to Siberia!  but the CP has always been paranoid about military leaders: when you need 'em, you really need 'em.  But afterwards ...  

Goodbye, Darling

We were never very kind towards Alistair Darling here.  Well, a Labour Chancellor, who once supported a Tobin tax - what do you expect?

But, to be charitable - as today we should - how could anyone have followed Gordon Brown in that a role, which meant reporting to the man hour by hour, being second-guessed all the time?  Quite amazing that he maintained the dignity he did.  BTW, he wasn't at the Treasury when Brown did most of the damage (1998-2007).  Oh, and he chaired the 'No' vote campaign during the Scottish Inde1 referendum.  Yes, we did have a bit of regard for the Badger.

RIP, Darling.  Tough trade, politicis.

ND

Salmond, Boris: Neither To Be Trusted

It will be gratifying indeed if our old friend Badger Darling sees off the ghastly Salmond, or is at least presiding when the caledonian charlatan self-destructs.  Gordon Brown aparently hates the idea of his ex-Chancellor getting the credit both for this and 'resolving the banking crisis' (sic) , which is even better.

It's an odd set of circumstances that sees me having any truck with George Galloway, but his 'just say naw' line captures the matter nicely.  A poond's a poond fer aw that also seems pretty apt, and I'm guessing (from 500 miles away) that most Scots see it the same way.  I expect you'll have had yur tea fits in somewhere, too, in that conservative land. 

Yes, Salmond is as untrustworthy as he looks.  And so, I'm sorry to say, is Boris Johnson, who is clearly on manoeuvres yet again, and with the most inappropriate timing.  On the eve of a Union debate, the outcome of which is pretty critical for Cameron, who wants to hear BoJo announcing that we'd better get our minds around leaving the EU?  There are of course easy answers to that question, but none of them very edifying.

If Boris had been a consistent EU-skeptic there might be a scintilla of excuse.  However, he hasn't.  Quite the reverse, he's been a consistently opportunistic sniper at whatever has been Cameron's position, and in the past hasn't scrupled to let us know that contemplation of leaving the EU is the very essence of madness, and that the City of London would thereby be destroyed.

Much as we love these larger-than-life political rogues, at the end of the day we can do nicely without them.

ND

What should be in the PBR Speech

- An apology for the absolute lies told last year and in the budget that the economy would recover in the 2nd half of 2009. Instead some more accurate predictions for next year, allowing for a shallow double dip and growth of about 1% at best for GDP.

- An admittance that Government spending is going to overshoot to just shy of £200 billion this year. An analysis showing that 50% of this is now a structural deficit, meaning spending cuts are needed to reduce the deficit.

- Some much needed tax reductions for business and the low-paid. 5% of business taxes and thresholds raised to £8,000 for all people. Paid for with VAT hike to 7.5%, re-imposition of stamp duty on all house sales and raising capital gains tax to 25%.

- A plan to sell-off stakes in RBS and Lloyds within 3 years, as well as the sell-off of the channel tunnel and other large infrastructure assets.

- The beginning of a shift to taxes on energy consumption and away from income taxes, to be revenue neutral in aim.

- A promise of an immediate 6 month review of all Government spending with the outcome to be a 15-20% cut in the amount of spend by Government within 2 years. No sacred cows in defence, NHS or foreign aid.

- A commitment to end Quantitative Easing to ensure that the UK can maintain the low interest rate environment for as long as possible to see us through the next phase of the recession.
I'll be amazed if a single point is raised - yet it is all common sense...

The worst policy of New Labour, Ever.

Really, I have heard of some daft Government policies, Cones hotlines, Dangerous dogs, 5-a-day, etc.

But today takes the biscuit big time. At the G20 Alistair Darling and Gordon Brown started advocating the tobin tax. This is an old left idea for taking a tax on all international finance transfers.

Not only do very few countries agree with this idea, it is simply impractical to implement; and wrong. more tax is never the answer as all good capitalist know.

What really staggers me though is that Badger and Brownstuff could promote this idea in the very week in which they confirm the UK taxpayer is to own the largest international bank in the world by assets and 43% of another top 20 bank.

So the UK government now owns banks and is advocating a policy which will cripple there recovery. This is beyond stupidity, it really is.

In years to come the political world will have a new lexicon for all this Government;

'as stupid as a Brown plan' - for a truly appalling policy announcement

'even Brown would not have done that' - for a really turkey of an idea

ad infinitum.

Alistair Darling to resign on 21st July

There are some assumptions behind the statement in the title. Some more likely than others:

- in the first place, revised GDP figures out today for Q1 2009 show the economy lost 2.4% of GDP in a single quarter. The worst performance since 1958. This is 20% worse than the first estimate released on 21st May 2009.

- As such, then next release by the ONS of GDP stats will be on 21st July or thereabouts for Q2. There is a general feeling that Q2 has not been as bad as Q1 by a long way. However, there has still been significant economic contraction.

- This means that any fall over 1.1% will mean GDP has already fallen by 3.5% this year. In the first two quarters. This is the fall predicted by Darling for the whole of 2009 - let alone just the start.

- So, IF Darling had any honour, he would resign, as the budget he has signed off on is quite clearly blow to pieces within 6 months and therefore the UK will need to quickly redress its spending position in line with the new lower GDP.

Will he do it though? I don't see the Government having a good record on falling on points of honour, or even dishonour. Instead perhaps they will come up with some more lies about how growth will magically appear in the second half of the year to balance out the falls in GDP.

This Government is well to course to bequeath to its successor the worst fiscal mess in the history of the Great Britain; although I have yet to see their plans for Danegeld (in the modern world, perhaps this is the IMF?)

Mervyn King: Vote Tory for sane policies

This is the gist of his aggressive speech at mansion house last night. After Alistair Darlings' soporific musings on nothing in particular, Mr King came the fore in saying:

1. Government spending is out of control (and implicitly we will have our debt rating downgraded without some concrete policies); this is an attack on both main parties.

2. A plan is needed to REDUCE the deficit; this is in direct contrast to Brown/Darling who have said spending will increase.

3. The Bank of England needs more powers; again this is the Tory policy and the opposite of Labour, who said everything is fine really.

4. The big banks are too big and ways must be found to control them, this is partly an extension of point 3, but again is the idea being floated by Richard Spring of the Tories to separate Investment banking and Retail banking.

On reading the reviews of this speech, there is no other way to see it. it is a huge criticism of the current Government and a vote of confidence in the opposition. I don't think the Bank of England Guvnor has set himself into such a position, certainly not since independence in 1997.

No doubt, Mr. Brown will come up with some new ideas to restrict the independence of the Bank in short order. The FSA is much more compliant with his views after all...

Darling, to the City; Que Paso?

As usual, the mansion house speech by the Chancellor is being leaked to friends this morning. So after dinner this evening it will be an even more riveting listen for the audience. Hearing Darling say something you have already heard about, in that wonderful voice of his.....I hope they are serving black coffee!

Worse, the UK Government proposes to do nothing of any import, as posted here Monday. The FSA is fine, the Bank of England is fine and so on. Minor changes needed, biff those nasty hedgies etc.

No mention that the Labour Government might cave into Europe and see the City (and thereby the Country it supports, like it or not) ruined. No mention that Obama and the Tories think radical change is needed.

No mention that the Banks themselves are in favour of an overhaul to Basle 2 regulations and the imposition of rules for pro-cycliality (that is, fixing the roof while the sun is shining in bank lending terms).

Nope, we have finger in the ears government today. After all none of this is our fault, it all started in America.

Alternative UK Budget 2009

Well CityUnslicker's really.

(Bill Quango is at home claiming the last of his expenses after yesterday's shock annoucnemnt)

- End public sector pension schemes from today onwards and announce that any new public sector worker will be on a defined contribution scheme like in the private sector.

- Move MP's to defined contribution pension scheme from beginning of next parliament.

- There are over 1000 quango's, promise to close at least 250 throughout the course of this budgetary year.

- Re-impose stamp duty and do not support the housing market. next year, when prices have stabilised will be the time to support this action.

- Increase VAT back to 17.5% as this policy clearly failed.

- Small rises in alocohol and tobacco taxes

- End child benefit for higher earning couples

- Do not encourage people to buy more cars

- Do not raid private sector pensions again when the 1997 raid destroyed the best system in the Western World.

- Don't raise any extra taxes on income, allow people to spend what they have.

- Do not encourage saving this year by raising isa thresholds more than the minimum. Announce a large increase for next year.

-Do not move tax bands with wage inflation, leave them the same, 'reward' those in work.

- Use the savings/tax rises to pay down potential borrowing and at least try and balance the books. Do not issue £200 billion of long-dated guilts that will saddle my toddler children with debt.

That is what I would do, I will not be surprised to see this as the diamtetric of what Darling proposes

Budget Week: Darling Facing up to Reality

I was actually quite pleased to see the No11 Spinners around today in the media and various 'Badger' quotes.

In it Darling has agreed that things are bad, the light has gone on and we need to make some urgent changes to the fiscal order of the UK:

- The economy is likely to shrink between 3-4% this year (which makes protestations that this is the worst quarter optimistic)
- Government Spending will hit 10% of GDP
- The tax base could shrink by over 8% - permanently downsizing the UK capacity for public expenditure.
- Unemployment will exceed 3 million

This is, quite simply, the worst position we have been in since WW2. The measures taken to address it need to be drastic and long-term. The people of the country need to know that 2009-2018 might well be diametrically opposite in experience to 2000-2008.

This period of time is two parliaments long. If Labour get it wrong they are very unlikely to be back in power during this period.

Tomorrow, what would Capitalists@Work do and Wednesday a quick reaction to the Budget. Thursday how it will fall apart (or not, if it is a shock budget!).

Badger has it all to do. I actually wish him luck, for all the sickness of Labour, Darling is all that stands between us and a call to the IMF in the next few months - a massive tax and spend expansionary Labour budget will sink the UK. No doubt No.10 is pushing, I hope Darling does not intend to follow-orders and stay loyal and in the bunker to the bitter end.

Another Scottish Brew: Dumferline Building Society

I am off to Edinburgh for the day later as it happens, so its seems fitting to have a Scottish theme for tonight's post.

Readers may or may not have seen some coverage of the collapse of Dunfermline Building Society. What is interesting is that the Chairman says the Government has been heavy handed in the 'takeover' of the organisation. Alistair Darling is being fingered for this.

His interview is quite interesting, he suggests that he only needed about £20 million in loans. Dunfermline is not full of toxic derivatives and sub-prime loans, more that the business suffered stress from the freezing of the credit markets. Not wishing to defend the Government, but Bank chairman are not currently a species who have much credibility and are bound to say for reasons of their own legal defence later that things were not that bad; Dumfermline have a sorry looking bunch of commercial loans to go with their Scottish mortgage book.

However, the thought that a Labour Government would move fast towards the option of nationalisation is also credible. Particularly in Scotland where there is more political support for wild Marxist activity. Let's see whether a buyer comes forward who either has strong Labour links or is perhaps already state-owned?

Apparently we will have the answer later on Monday....

A triumph of no style over no substance

Darling's speech to the 2008 Labour Party Conference.

all words in red are the chancellors own

Firstly, set out the background.
unprecedented economic challenges..uncertain times...huge rises in oil, food and commodity prices...credit crisis..A twin shock to the global economy

Secondly, its not our fault
extraordinary, turbulent times..rocked the financial institutions around the world....Mistakes and problems in the mortgages markets in the United States have spread right across the world.

Thirdly, We have already solved all the problems. Don't panic.
The strength of our economy...historically low levels of inflation and high levels of employment.. stability {repeat as often as needed. Also say families at least 20 times}...We have taken the right long-term decisions for our country

Fourthly, I may have overstated the good bits. here comes some not quite truths.
Bank of England to inject in excess of £100 billion. Essential for our economy, for business, for mortgage payers, for jobs. {well to stop bank collapse at any rate}...we want to improve ways in which credit rating agencies work {suddenly}..We need to look at the culture of huge bonuses which have distorted the way decisions are made...{the public sector is awash with bonuses and incentives and we have embraced them and PFI bonuses as a new religion.. But lets talk only about the city} the Bank of England believes inflation will peak soon. {but the higher energy and fuel and food prices may well be permanent} On energy costs, we've frozen petrol duty this year and increased the Winter Fuel Allowance.{well we never reduced the highest fuel tax in europe, and winter fuel ONLY kicks in if it gets proper cold. } we were the first major economy to ban the speculative practice of short selling to help bring calm back to the markets.{along with the USA, Germany, France, Belgium and Netherlands and Canada, Taiwan and Australia who also make the first claim}

Things we have already announced made out to look like new ideas.
We are also going to put in place measures to give added protection to savers.{£50,000 safety limit promised since run on Northern Rock} This month 22 million people on low and middle incomes will receive a £60 rebate - with an extra £10 each month until April.{The money we took from the 10p tax disaster and promised to give back. Only now its called 'assistance for families'} Help for families through tax credits and increased child benefit. Help for thousands in work through a minimum wage and guaranteed holidays. {saying same things since 1997. Weren't holidays guaranteed before Labour came to power?}
Help in retirement through improved pensions - and, for the first time, every employer required to contribute to their employees pension fund. {I think he means the useless stakeholder pension, introduced in 2001, in which case he said "contribute to "when he meant "make available to" To help with housing, we've brought in a stamp duty holiday.{went down like the Glitter Band's reunion tour}
We're introducing measures to reduce heating bills not just this winter but every winter through energy efficiency.{we will let you have half price lagging if you are 70 years old}

Some out right, bare faced, unashamed mispokes ...
Unemployment rose last week. But we still have near record numbers of people in work.{unemployment is going to rise to near or above 2 million} Inflation is higher than we would like but nowhere near past levels - and should fall soon. {But your energy, fuel and food prices are unlikely to fall much, if at all.} Interest rates are at 5%, not the double figures of two decades ago.{we should have put them up months ago, but that would have really killed Gordon} Make no mistake, discipline in public finances is essential. {The real chancellor said I'm not to cut public expenditure by a penny}

Decisions which allowed us to triple public investment whilst at the same time reducing national debt to one of the lowest levels of any major developed country.{ Must keep straight face, must keep straight face. Remember, the bigger the lie..}

Praise the Boss
we have the right Prime Minister..the right team and the right policies to help the country...A Prime Minister with experience and judgement..we acted decisively to help bring together two of the biggest banks in the country...the experience to make the right long-term decisions.

What he really actually said of note
" I will introduce a new banking reform bill in the Commons in a fortnight."

What on earth would he have said if the big financial meltdown of last week hadn't happened? 10 minutes of bashing Osbourne, 10 minutes of praising PM, 5 minutes on stability, 5 minutes on spin? Let's hope Mr Brown has kept all the real policies for his own speech.

Badger Culling - latest breaking news

Strange news to report today as far as I can tell the UK Labour government are in full rebellion against the Brown Machine. Indeed there is now talk of a crisis in finances and tonight it has emerged that there strong discussion of the need for a cull.

First up is Badger. Badger has been in a poor state, marooned in his set and beset by critics, since the Magpie Budget where he was forced to steal others' clothes to cover his own lack of ideas. This has led the Sir David King, the Government's chief scientist to say today that "Together with five well-respected experts, I have assessed the ISG report and other research relating to badgers...It is clear that badgers are a continuing source of infection and could account for 40% of.... breakdowns in some areas. "

However, an alleged friend of David Blunkett, John Bourne added "If you wish to go down the culling route, you have to do what the Irish are doing in large parts of their country and that is eliminate"

In Defence of badger the leader of the Badger Trust, Dr Richard Yarnell, a person apparently close to G. McBroon is leading the campaign for the protection of badgers and has come out with a strong defence and said the latest report amounted to a "shameful political fix" and it "beggared belief" that the government was even thinking about implementing a cull."

The Government has also commissioned some Opinion Research, perhaps by Debroah Mattinson which says a that out of a survey of 47,000 people 95% were against a cull; however it seems that this research was done before the latest outbreaks in the last month.

However given this Government's record on culls since the Foot in Mouth incident on June this year I do indeed fear for the not-so-humble Badger.


Do you think this is right? Should Badger be culled and if so by a knife in the back or s sniper shot to the head?

We live in confusing times....

Pre-Budget and Comprehensive Spending Review

"Badger" Darling was doing his masters bidding today in presenting to Parliament this report. A pre-election fest for us all, with no election. Quite scary when you look at the giveaways, practically nothing.

The cupboard is very bare now and there are no more baubles left for us; In the bleak midwinter...

So my 2 cents:

Taxes - A small concession to married couples for inheritance tax; Aping the Tories without going as far as them. No move on corporation tax, a tax rise for Capital gains, some vaguery about hitting non-doms; overall a little tax grab here and quite a nasty one for entrepreneurs who have invested heavily in R&D and building their own companies (as if the PE boys will notice!). Finally, some peanuts for local government, although that will be lots of money for the few Labour councils that are left as other councils won't be likely to be favoured. Council taxes still expected to rise at above inflation rates. Ouch.

Economy & Public Debt - Slight reduction in forecasts for growth - still wildly optimistic but then we would expect nothing else. A promise of no real tax cuts to come. Said nothing on Northern Rock as plans are clearly still be re-written in the Treasury as the lending situation becomes more murky. On the government side some heroic lies have been spun that will come back to bite hard if the opposition remembers them. There is simply no way the UK net debt will be £23 billion by 2010 ( that won't even cover the Olympics, will it?). Equally another £10 billion of savings is pure chicken feed, a mere rounding error as Chris Dillow points out.

CSR Spending - Health to still have more money poured into it. No mention of re-negotiating the GP's settlement or how the trusts are going to cope with the PFI debts going forward.

Education to get more money for personalised learning (another dead end waste of time. it is discipline and staff motivation that is needed, not this). More money to to go on investment in research; hopefully no the abused corporate R&D tax credit scheme. However with the tax change on entrepreneurial investment this all seems very disjointed.

Housing - Help for people to renovate poor housing, beyond me why this is needed as there is a clear economic incentive to develop your own property as it is. tampering with mortgages too in an effort to reduce our addiction to variable rates. Another poor idea as very few people will want to fix something now and miss an opportunity in the future; why is the government trying to in the game of guessing people's risk appetites?

Other baubles - not much for culture, a pittance for the army, some very belated funding for flood defences, more money for overseas aid and more money for people with kids on benefits ( loving the incentives here, i hope you are too..)


This lot must make some shocking reading to Labour supporters everywhere. There is no effort at reform in here, they can't even copy the Tory policies properly and the money has run out for any kind of sizeable giveaways to the core public sector constituency on whom they rely for votes....And this in 2008 when growth has been very resilient. The guarantee of tax rises next year are going to be very unpopular as the economy cools and house prices give way.