Thursday, 10 September 2009

The World Cup Bonus


Congratulations to Fabio Capello and the England football team who have booked their place at the world cup finals after a very convincing 5 - 1 win over Croatia yesterday.

Fabio may well receive a call from Mr Cameron to congratulate him on his success. And with good cause. By the time the World Cup proper gets underway in South Africa from 11th June 2010 there will have just been an election. The new government, increasingly looking likely to be a Conservative one, may gain some very positive advantages from the tournament.

Any England success is a national success and how ever ill deserved the government gains credit just for being English. With none of the other home nations likely to qualify all hopes rest with England, and England are looking good.In qualifying they have played eight - won eight. The best result ever for the national side.

A shellshocked Bilic, when asked about England's prospects, said. "Based on tonight, definitely they can win it. A good run would increase the feel good factor, the new beginning factor, just when it is needed.

Economically its a godsend. The weather this June was a week of hot temperatures until about the 7th, followed by storms, rain, floods and wind. The summer then washed away around mid June after a record high temperature May. In retail terms it means that the FIFA World Cup is being held against some pretty low trading figures. Even Down 1.1% in May '09, which was the high point. Retailers will be facing poor weather, mid recession figures.
Even normal June weather would give an extra 2-5% increase to overall sales but with the addition of replica shirts,footballs, BBQ's, alcohol etc there will be a huge boost to the economy should England do well. Clothing and footwear have been dragging the retail figures down all of 2009. That sector will be main beneficiary of any Team England success.Travel agents will benefit from some 20,000 fans booking flights and traveling abroad. Even the time zone of a later one hour difference is favourable, allowing workers to get home, changed and out again in good time.

When the figures are analyzed David Cameron may well find his very first set of economic indicators are the best he ever gets.

26 comments:

Budgie said...

"Clothing and footwear have been dragging the retail figures down all of 2009. That sector will be main beneficiary of any Team England success.Travel agents will benefit from some 20,000 fans booking flights and traveling abroad."

Benefit? Oh dear - more debt, more adverse import costs.

Marchamont Needham said...

I think the biggest economic beneficiaries will be South African Muggers.

Blue Eyes said...

Major should have had his election while England were still in Euro 96. Brown must be trying to think of ways to delay the next election until before the Quarter Finals...

electro-kevin said...

I think one of the main causes of Britain's decline is its obsession with football.

I know a significant number of men whose mood is primarily dictated by the fortunes of their football team. Politicians are right to tap into it.

"Ah - the country's going to the dogs ... but there's always football."

Let's remember the political and economic state of the finest footballing nations (Sth America) before rejoicing that this is good economic news.

Add to this that Nu Lab have been damn lucky that this wasn't a dry and balmy summer like the Thatcher govt had to endure during the race riots of the '80s.

Bill Quango MP said...

Budgie. The fans will buy their kit here, their tickets here and drink over there. Its a win-win for the economy.

South Africans are mental about their football.
Last trip the restaurant manager sat down at my table and asked me if I thought Wes Brown was ever going to replace Gary Neville at right back.
I wouldn't have minded but it was my Honeymoon and Mrs Q was most unimpressed.

Marchamont Needham: That is going to be a problem but I expect a 'cleansing' of the streets by security forces and military beforehand.

Blue Eyes: So right. If Gordon does find a way England will be defeated by Slovenia and North Korea and limp from the tournament.

Cameron will have the 'Obama' luxury of taking credit if John Terry lifts the cup and not being blamed if they don't.

Bill Quango MP said...

EK. Don't agree. Gordon and Alistair would have thought the fates were conspiring when the summer never appeared. A golden opportunity lost as so many people opted for UK holidays this year and the wet weather just stops the spending.

Football is a brilliant feel good factor if your team is winning. In 2002 a company I worked for sold 100,000 pink, girly cut, look alike England tennis shirts in a week. 100,000 girlfriends getting involved.
That was ten times the volume expected.
A t/s with '5-1' printed immediately after the Munich game sold out in two days.

I doubt that we will see the same mania early on as from that 'golden generation' but if England do well the press will be hyping it to the max, and the country will be ready to feel good again.
Perfect antidote to the recession.
If the sun comes out as well then a four-six week boom is guaranteed.

JJB must be breathing a great sigh of relief.

Steven_L said...

"I think one of the main causes of Britain's decline is its obsession with football." (EK)

As a cricket nut who can't abide by football tournaments in the middle of the domestic season I want to agree with you, although I'm not sure you're right.

I know a fair few of these tattooed tribalist maniacs who's life revolves arounf 3pm on a rainy Saurday afternoon too, pathetic isn't it?

I'm thinking that World Cup 2010 might be a good time to go for 2 weeks holiday in the states or Canada.

Blue Eyes said...

The England shirt is the most popular football shirt in the world, year in, year out! I think that is amazing! I don't see any harm in the modern game at all. The morons have mostly grown out of their rioting tendencies or at least keep it well away from the stadia (Upton Park the other week being a shocking exception). England Mania in the run-up to a big competition is fun and harmless and it's great to see all the cars with St. George flags!

Philipa said...

I know a fair few of these tattooed tribalist maniacs who's life revolves arounf 3pm on a rainy Saurday afternoon too, pathetic isn't it?

I'm thinking that World Cup 2010 might be a good time to go for 2 weeks holiday in the states or Canada.


Hi, Steven_L - with you completely there, if only I could afford such a holiday.

I don't object to football as such, I just don't understand the psuedo-religious status it has in peoples lives. Bill, I don't think I'm being overly girly as one couple I knew of at work met through their mutual love of football and their choice of team. But you're right that any example of national achievement abroad is a good thing.

However, I don't think that reverance of the game should be a politically correct force. It's only a game, one of many. A bunch of blokes running around kicking a pigs bladder as I recall. I remember the doctor asking my son if he liked football. He answered 'no'. 'What's your favourite team?' asked the doctor and pursued the matter till I got irritated and said 'HE DOESN'T LIKE FOOTBALL' and still the doc persisted. Such is society, especially on cup final day.

James Higham said...

I'd like to see the spectacle of Brown saying, "Well done, England." :)

Bill Quango MP said...

Steven.L
If you want somewhere nearer where there won't be any coverage of England matches at all try Scotland.

BE: Agree. It will be like an early Olympics. Lets just embrace it.

Philipa : I'm sure Channel four will be running back to back Julia Roberts again if you're not interested in footie.
Its only Wimbledon for lads.

I do like the fact that young women suddenly find themselves completely sidelined and aren't sure what to do. Look in the pub and see tables of pretty girls being completely ignored when a big game is on.

James: I doubt he will still be around, but if he is he will have a 'Libyan excuses' time of saying one thing to the BBC and another to BBC Scotland.

Budgie said...

Bill Q said: "The fans will buy their kit here, their tickets here and drink over there."

Precisely. Using what? You seem to be in Western 'let's zoom up and down the motorway because it increases GDP' mode.

The fans will borrow money at exorbitant rates, increasing the population's already ruinous debt, to buy products made or sourced from abroad, thereby hitting our balance of payments.

This may increase GDP (although that is debatable) but at the expenses of undermining our economy.

Philipa said...

Cripes, Bill, does it have to be Julia Roberts? Last time I watched Wimbledon throughout Connors, Nastase and Björn Borg were playing. Those were the days. Less grunting.

Look in the pub and see tables of pretty girls being completely ignored when a big game is on.

I wouldn't dream of being so rude to any man I was with, whatever sporting event was taking place that I enjoyed. I've dated a chap that didn't like horses so I didn't go riding or to the races, skiing so we didn't go. I once pursuaded him to come down the club and got him water skiing but after that day I went alone. I certainly wouldn't take someone and ignore them.

I used to be a fairly decent shot and member of the gun club at uni. One day I was in some pain from a slight injury and wanted to go home so, irritated at being ignored and having to wait for him whilst he shot at tins cans in the trees with his mates I sweetly asked if I could have a go. How to work a gun was patiently explained to me as if I was very stupid. I swiftly popped off all three targets with the rifle, that they had invariably missed, and smiled and asked if we could go home now? It went down like a lead brick for some reason. And I thought they were trying to get those cans out the trees. Ah well.

electro-kevin said...

BQ - Disagree. My family UK holiday gets FAR more expensive when the weather is bad. All that indoor entertainment, and trips to the cinema instead of larking about on a beach for free. Paying to use a pool instead of the sea. Going to a pub for lunch instead of cooking it up for ourselves in the open with a few tinnies from the supermarket.

Football (like housing) is all part of the panem et circenses.

And we all know England will lose on penalties. We go through this hype every time.

Bill Quango MP said...

Budgie. If everyone buys only fruit and veg and spends the res paying down debt our economy will collapse.

A month of barbecues, new tops, sky sports and lager won't hurt the debt too much and the benefits to the retail and travel sector will outweigh the damage.

Budgie said...

Bill Q - I'm not sure where I advocated spending our money only on fruit and veg; but paying off our debt, yes. How will reducing our debts (both personal and government) cause the collapse of our economy?

Using credit for asset purchase may be sensible, but habitually buying more consumer goods and services than our earnings warrant is a fundamental reason why this country is in such a parlous state.

electro-kevin said...

If we really want to boost the British economy we ought to spend our money home grown industry:

- taxis
- pubs
- whores
- gambling
- poached game
- hair dressing
- speeding fines ...

Not bloody football tops from Chindia.

Pogo said...

@Philipa "I remember the doctor asking my son if he liked football. He answered 'no'. 'What's your favourite team?' asked the doctor and pursued the matter till I got irritated and said 'HE DOESN'T LIKE FOOTBALL' and still the doc persisted."

I get that too. I just tell whoever's enthusing that "I'm so uninterested in football that I support Walsall"... Usually works.

I was 14 before I realised that the proper name of the team wasn't "Walsallnil". :-)

Bill Quango MP said...

Philipa: 'fraid so. Euro 2008 was all Notting Hill and Sleeping with the enemy on c4 and film 4.
The point about the young ladies is not that they are with the men, but that they are single and normally red bloodied young males flock to them like bees to honey. During the soccer this doesn't happen. Go to the pub and see the genuine surprise as they are unable to attract any interest.

Now I know that you are a a secret Annie Oakley I will be on my best behaviour.

Budgie.
Your point that some will go out and buy a new 50" TV on tick cannot be ignored. The fruit and veg was meant as an example of only buying what we need not a direct quote.However if we can't drive consumer spending a little unemployment will rise, increasing the national debt. Whether we need a St George's flag on the bonnet is debatable, but it will help the corner shop as much as the supermarket giants to make a profit AND to pay down their debt.


EK
Just this week I have payed out large sums on four of those seven. I'll leave it to your imagination which ones.

Philipa said...

Pogo - thanks for that suggestion, I'll remember that. And thanks for the 1st laugh of the day :-)

BQ - my shooting anecdote tells us the boys don't like it when you join in their sport. I've never understood why. How do they ever expect to get laid when they ignore a woman all night?

Philipa said...

PS: just read your comment, BQ. No need to be afraid, Y'all should know by now that I am a fragile little thing that yearns for a strong man to take me in hand. Usually EK. Idle just leaves chocolates and sods off.

Steven_L said...

"try Scotland" (BQ)

Could do, the landlord son is getting me hooked on carp fishing so I've just forked out for a pair of new rods, baitrunners and bite alarms.

It'll double as good kit for a stint trying to catch some big pike.

Borrow a big tent and some camping gear off my old man, grab a few bottles of malt and pitch up for free in the national park on the East side of Loch Lomand with the Glasweigans tourists.

Could be fun! Anyone fancy?

William Gruff said...

The government of England is Br*tish, not English. It is ironic that a Scotch dominated Br*tish government should profit from an English victory that no 'true' Scot would wish for.

CityUnslicker said...

Whores send most of their money back to Eastern Europe or afghanisatn(somewhat indirectly), so not surethey can be on a list of spending boost to the ecomony.

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