This post will come replete with major caveats in due course, but let's start with the headline. Vladimir Putin is bluffing like crazy over the inevitability of his victory, and will continue doing so for the next three months (until after the upcoming "elections") against the seemingly slender hope that Trump will somehow ride to his rescue and force Ukraine to accept something that can be portrayed as "victory" for Russia. Given that use of nukes is off the table, bluffing plus outright airborne slaughter in Kyiv are practically all he has left.
To sum up:
- the Russian 2026 "spring-summer offensive" has yielded miniscule net[1] territorial gains at the cost of phenomenal Russian casualties. All objectives remain unmet.
- counting from the front line to St Petersburg and beyond, the Ukrainian medium- and deep-strike campaign, notably on oil and logistics assets, has: seriously incommoded Russian forces at the front (supplies must be brought up by drone and on foot); paralysed transport on major roads in the occupied territories, with critical shortages of fuel - & water - in Donetsk, and Crimea almost under siege; made significant dents in manufacturing facilities of the Russian industrial-military complex across a very wide swathe of the country; seriously hampered telecomms and air movements across western Russia; wreaked colossal damage on the oil industry, with severe shortages resulting (and forcing large-scale imports from Belarus, India and other nations) that must soon have significant inflationary and industrial consequences; via vast palls of black smoke over Moscow and St Petersburg, demonstrated vividly and demeaningly to the populace that nowhere is safe from highly accurate drone and missile bombardment.
- having thus far failed miserably in the planned effort to censor the internet in Chinese style, Putin faces a populace that can see all this quite clearly. Not withstanding the existence of some loyalist diehards that will cling to Putin's infallibility as they did to Stalin's, the greater part of the people, realistic cynics as most Russians are, have clocked it all as being at the very least, not at all what they were sold back in 2022, but in fact starting to impinge on them directly. To call this "unrest" would be to misunderstand how Russia has always been: but it's a near equivalent.
- the economy is in a bad way, and short term relief from Iran-war oil prices has been overtaken by those prices falling back again PLUS the abovementioned actual shortage of oil products.
- the economy: if nothing changes, really deep measures will be needed;
- manpower: if Putin decides to soldier on, even just to the extent of trying to capture the rest of the Donbass (and his stated territorial goals extend a lot further than that), he'll need a very large intake of new conscripts - perhaps a million.
So: given that's all 3 months away, during which time Putin doubtless feels he can (just abut) maintain a facade of BAU, he sees little downside to giving the Trump card one last play. Look, we're advancing on all fronts - let me lend you this magnifying glass - and can carry on like this forever! Get that clown to surrender, now - and cash in your Nobel Prize voucher!! Yeah, right. Even Witless-Dumkopf, even Trump himself, have probably spotted the flaws in that line of reasoning.
One other thing, before the caveats. L'il Volodya also shows signs of losing it a bit. It's always necessary to enter notes of caution here because he's been written off as a dying man for years. But in a very recent high-profile set-piece "interview" he gave recently, he dropped a real Biden of a clanger and declared Ukrainian troops in a town deep inside Russia were only 2 km away from being totally surrounded. He was obviously mistaking it for some tiny Ukrainian settlement he'd been briefed about but forgotten the name of - commentators have made various guesses because it's not entirely obvious which. But this in the full glare of prime time Russian TV. Not a helpful incident.
And the caveats? It's basically the usual one, with a specific twist. It's always wise to assume that there is no limit to the suffering that can be imposed on the Russian people, however cynical they may be. That's one manifestation of "the mysterious Russian soul" that they are so proud of. And I doubt there are any moral limits to the extent Putin is willing to exploit that, even if there might be some political constraints in an internet age. So my opening list of how bad things are in Russia needs to be considered in that light. BUT it cuts both ways: Ukrainians are equally able to take it, as they've proved heroically for over four years in defiance of almost all expectations. Are they crumbling in the next 3 months? No, they ain't. And of course they have the tremendous backstop of EU / UK funding, without which it would have all been up for them some while ago.
The special twist is this: al the evidence points to Putin not knowing in detail what's actually happening. He uses neither mobile phone nor laptop. The military accounts he receives are just the icing on the mighty traditional Russian layer-cake of filing "beautiful reports" at every stage along the chain; and we can probably assume the economic and industrial reports he gets are similarly sugared. It's only occasionally that hard facts seem to get through to him. This all makes it even more likely that he'll play the game of attrition by infinite suffering. Scary stuff.
There is one last fallback for Putin - China: because we all assume Xi won't let him "actually lose the war". But Xi also serves as a restraining influence: he's ruled out nukes in no uncertain terms; and note how the 2024 experiment using 10,000 North Korean troops in front-line roles quietly came to an end without being scaled up, or even just continued.And "actually losing the war" may not be a relevant criterion: look how badly things have become for Putin with China notionally having his back! I don't think he'll be getting any change from the Donald either just now: a(nother) failed "peace process" is the last thing Trump needs before the mid-terms.
ND
