Tuesday, 29 December 2009

How did we do on 2009 Predictions?

OK, here are our predictions for 2009 that we made on Jan 1. Now is a good time to see where we got to before coming up with our new set for 2010 on New year's day: We normally get 66% plus, can we keep up our accuracy?

ND is first up
1 - natural gas prices to fall dramatically. Well see this - pretty spot on to say the least. Hope you put the short on!
2- CPS and HMRC to struggle  - this is one that did not really happen.
3 - Obama to be tested by a series of events, well yes they did happen, but perhaps not on the scale of what may have been expected. Afghanistan and Climate Change not really distracting too massively form his domestic agenda.
4 - BHP to be in the news - well if you had followed and bought in, then you would have done well in this share this year, see here.

CU next, only 50/50 so far -
1. Oil as a massive investment opportunity with prices to end at over $50 and perhaps more. Home run.
2. US Dollar to fall dramatically, tick, China to allow Yuan to float, cross.
3. Gilts strike - well there was a minor one, but 2010 will see this prediction come to fruition.
4. UK inflation below 0% , well RPI has been for some time, but CPI never touched it in the end.

 BQ, next - work to do as we are only just over .5

1. Hundreds of bankruptcies - well banks decided not to pull too many plugs although there were quite a few nonetheless, no more big names followed Woolies.
2. Public sector pay to cause problems and a rebellion over Royal Mail - tick to both, the former maybe not in strikes yet, but they are all in the pipeline.
3. Election speculation, but no election - yup,.theme of the year.
4. ITV to struggle - another big yes, huge problems there , so much so they have struggled even to find a new management team!

So overall, BQ wins with 3/4, CU gets 3/4 (qualified) and ND 2/4

8/12 - 66% - so we just keep our mark. Tomorrow I will look at what the commentators said....


Budgie said...

I will stick my neck out for next year ....

Greece won't default - not because it isn't heading that way, but because the EU will prop it up. The EU knows if Greece goes down then others are more likely to follow.

The EU members, particularly Germany and France, fear such a failure, and its consequences, more than they fear their own electorates.

I sincerely hope I am wrong about this. A domino failure of the Euro would be the best outcome to wither, or even bust, the EU itself. This would be our best chance to escape the EU.

Certainly Cameron won't take us out. So if I am right about Greece it looks likely we will have to suffer being more controlled by Brussels than ever. That is until the EU finally breaks down and our useless politicians have to admit they were wrong. Here's hoping.

Pogo said...

"Budgie"... Politicians never admit that they were wrong.

Budgie said...

Pogo - I admit I was wrong about that.

Monevator said...

Good calls by CU.

Gosh, forget about the oil trough... Nearly everything (except notably government bonds) really was a bargain in early 2009, provided you kept your head...

Sadly I'd been keeping my head throughout 2008 so only had a portion of my powder dry to deploy! Still, well worth the fiddling as I take my own score for 2009.