Friday, 1 January 2010

even more Predictions for 2010





So, in 2010:

1. Poor economic results for quarter one 2010 helps to give a slightly better than expected Tory win. Cameron has a 45-60 Majority. England doing very well in the World Cup allows the Tories to announce an emergency public sector cuts budget followed by another tax raising budget later in the year. However the focus on avoiding unemployment causing tax rises benefits business and allows recovery, with the UK ending the year with 1.5% growth.

2. Troop casualties rise during the June surge but by the end of the year plans are well advanced for troop withdrawals from Afghanistan. British commitment to be severely scaled
back for 2011
. Afghanistan continues to dominate the news.

3. The integrated Broadband-TV set top box, which should just about make an appearance, will make a difference to households. BBC will reap the benefits of I-player on screen. New entertainment companies will sell screenable content and replace DVDs. A new lease of life emerges for the dying reality TV format.
But in future years having the ability to pull up a bloggers views while watching the news or a product review while on the shopping channel will make providers and producers wish they'd never uttered " total 360 degree fully integrated social networking on demand television."

4. Dave Miliband will succeed Macbreth. But only just and he will have to give a high profile role to Ed. A Kennedy style cabinet forms, the difference being they never actually hold office.

5. UK will retain its AAA But the cuts will have to be more severe than the politicians think. The current 10-15% will not be enough. NHS and education ring fencing, plus the government's forward military announcements are not going to leave much for the rest. Possibly even department merging or another attempt to make councils regional instead of county wide.

Happy New year.

14 comments:

Richard Elliot said...

Prediction overload!

I'd like to see the below predictions come true:
- Integrated Broadband/TV box.
- FTSE rally up to 6,000.
- EMED to have a great year.

Earning in AUD at the moment I'd also like a Pound Crisis. Perhaps I could pay of the UK mortgage in one go?

I think the election is going to be very close. Interesting C@W seem to have a Convservative consensus. I think a hung parliament is a possibility.

Anonymous said...

Troops move from Afghanistan

Maybe. Karzi is ex local warlord, ex gun and drug runner, recruited by CIA for his skills, and planted as boss. Nothing is what it seems in that area - - and you should know that, Bill!

But into Yemen!

Perpetual war is gameplan. Written in stone. Together with loss of our rights.

You really think anything is what it seems, watch and learn!

Anonymous said...

You have to factor in the increased de-industrialisation, and capital flight, resulting from existing policies that are seemingly absolutely avoided in this forum. Some characters seemingly agreeing to the fraud of CO2/global warming, yada, yada!

Prove me wrong, Bill.
Discuss them.

Budgie said...

Scrap DfID and all its works - please.

Demetrius said...

Its being so cherful what keeps me going.

Marchamont Needham said...

Education ring-fenced? http://www.timeshighereducation.co.uk/story.asp?sectioncode=26&storycode=409782&c=2

I predict a Labour win (client state etc...) followed by the shitstorm to end them all.

Happy new year all.

Anonymous said...

Your blog keeps getting better and better! Your older articles are not as good as newer ones you have a lot more creativity and originality now keep it up!

Irina from Dublin said...

My Ireland predictions:

1. Massive unrest in the public sector over pay-cuts, strikes start in February.

2. French and German economies improve leading to an acculumated 2 point increase in eubor in June 10, foreclosures and repossesions make the "The Tithe Law" look like The Magic Roundabout.

3. Brian Lenihan dies in September 10, of pancreatic cancer.

4. Fianna Fail (sp intended) win snap October election.

5. Deeper into the quagmire we go.

PS: Demand for cooper, QED China.

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James Higham said...

Poor economic results for quarter one 2010 helps to give a slightly better than expected Tory win. Cameron has a 45-60 Majority.

Not a long way away. See how the Albion Alliance campaign does too once we hit the media.

Kyle said...

There is no way you can get away with predicting an "integrated broadband box set". The things have existed for years, though in the UK we've had nothing specifically marketed. The closest would be the BBC's iPlayer channel released on the Wii in October and you can also get Sky on the Xbox 360. Not to mention proper IPTV things like BT Vision which has been available for 3 (?) years, but is of course crap.

I think we will need to see 2-3 players settle into leading positions in the US and for them to come to the UK. The major boom will probably come a bit later when UK broadband leapfrogs the US again. In the UK, streaming genuine HD (as in bitrate, FPS, the whole deal) worked better a few years ago than it does now but never caught on due to CPU limitations.

Of course, best performance is still to build your own. Second best is to illegally modify (for free) that unused Wii you probably have sitting around. Imagine if Nintendo cashed in on this? There were some rumours about such a thing last Christmas but I really think that Asian (SK and JP) have absolutely lost any understanding of how the West works. The Japanese games industry seems stuck in the 90s and cannot capitalise on the current gen consoles.

Kyle said...

"Last Christmas" = Christmas 2008.

Bill Quango MP said...

Richard Elliot:
UK pound not going to much better next year. Lucky you.
Predictions for a Tory win are just stat based. the economic figs are not going to help Labour before May.
Fairly poor xmas and a seasonal rise in the 1st 1/4 unemployment + some more business failures won't help.
Strikes are on the cards from both Royal Mail and BA for Jan/feb + bound to be more. Tories were on 40+% all last year. It was only Labour that moved about 27-33%.So its Labour that need to do better and that doesn't look likely unless something radical happens.

Anon: I don't see UK forces being redeployed anywhere else unless a real war blows up. Government can't afford it and troops need a rest and refit.Out of Afghanistan and into barracks.
CO2 debate. everyone's doing it.It will definately arise more this year with Copenhagen 2 and the nuclear/carbon debate rumbling on.

Budgie: International development aid is ring fenced I believe.
It may be easier to find out what isn't ringfenced.

demetrius: Always welcome. Not going to be too much to cheer about. A bit like last year. Make the most of the best bits.

Marchamont Needham: Its almost worth the damage isn't it. A Peter Mandelson PM- Ed Balls Chancellor government dealing with the disaster. But its like wishing to end a doubt by praying for a Tsunami. Labour will almost certainly lose. See above for why.

JH: I didn't mean a march election. I meant poor economic figures in March, even though they've improved by June won't help Mr Brown.

Kyle. The prediction is for a working,fairly limited but mass produced,I-player featuring ,mass purchased device in time to be the must have, electrical, off the shelf purchase for Xmas 2010.
Integrated directly with TV, in the £100-200 initial cost bracket.

idle said...

USD/EUR
Copper
Gold
ACHL (Chinese orange grower, london listed)
SGF (Singapore fund NYSE listed)
MTU (Jap bank ADR listed on NYSE)

yes, I'm long the lot of them. I expect them to return 20% or more from today's prices at some stage during 2010 (not necessarily at 31.12.10) MTU and Copper likely to have most upside.