Friday 1 January 2010
Happy New Year: Cityunslicker's New Year Predictions
Here are mine to kick us off:
FTSE - The QE rally is just getting under way but there will be a big bump due to the end of QE and the election. I expect another rollercoaster year which will be great for trading, if a bit stressful. However, by the year end people will buy into stocks as they prepare for the coming inflation. Expect the FTSE to end up nearly 10% up, shy of 6000.
Stock pick - EMED Mining. Currently available at 11p, this company is re-opening a large copper mine in Spain and is progressing with that permitting that is needed. As the opening gets closer (which is due end 2010, but maybe early next year) the share price will increase to the potential of the revenues from the mine. This should at least go up 300% this year, maybe more.
Oil Price - With all the predicitions, there is a lot of capacity out there in the oil market thanks to the recession. As such although the price will be volatile, it overall will bounce around the level it is now, unless there is some huge shock like the US attacking Iran.
UK Politics - The election is pretty much settled now that we are so close to the General Election. My bet will be on the Speaker of the House of Commons holding his Buckingham seat against Nigel Farage.
Public Spending - Whatever the results of the election, we will see and Irish style cut in spending or else face the IMF coming in to bail us out. The politicians may manage to avoid this, but the cuts will cause widesprad strikes and unrest as the recession catches up with the public sector.