Thursday 6 May 2010

Election Special

Time to predict.
No Question time as there seems to be some event going on at the BBC.
Instead ..election results prediction please.

The c@w readers are the most informed, educated, intelligent and reckless on the internet.
Do you think the late Con surge will take them to 40%? The Lib Dems have faded but will the tactical vote call earn them 30%? Will Gordon stay on and still be in No 10 not just tomorrow, but for another five years?

Place your seats and % numbers into the comments.

And while you're thinking about it watch the short video above to help to remind you of some the faces from the political bubble.

Plus a special IS IT SAFE competition
Is the political seat safe or unsafe?

Ed Balls - Morley and Outwood {+25% ish}
Yvette Cooper - Pontefract and Castleford {+46.6%}
Alistair Darling - Edinburgh South West {+16.5% }
Hazel Blears - Salford {+32.7% }
Jon Cruddas - Dagenham {+14.9%}
John Bercow Buckingham {+38.1%}
Luton South - Exiting Marge Moran {+14.5%} will it go to Esther?
Jacqui Smith - Redditch {+5.1% }
Phil Woolas - Oldham East and Saddleworth {+2.8 }
Bill Rammell - Harlow {+1.2%}

10 out 10 right anyone?


TheFatBigot said...

38% Conservative
29% Labour
26% Lib Dem

Conservatives 3 short of a majority.

Andrew B said...

There is something in the British psyche that give us a tendency to vote conservative, but not want to admit it.

Small Con majority ~15

The difference between this result and a very hung parliament is around the poll sample error. No science here.

Tim Worstall said...

Bercow is, sadly, I think safe.

Miss CD said...

Con - 37%
Lib -26%

Ed Balls - safe
Yvette Cooper -Very safe
Alistair Darling - worried, but safe
Hazel Blears -safe
Jon Cruddas - Teeth pulled -not safe
John Bercow - safe, but will need braces.
Esther - Not safe
Jacqui Smith Teeth drilled to the roots
Phil Woolas -who? not safe
Bill Rammell - not safe. Teeth out.

roym said...

small conservative majority. 10-20 ish

Weekend Yachtsman said...

What the fat bigot said.

CityUnslicker said...


I REALLY want Labour to come third. My stock portfolio really neads a Blue Win, its down 10% in 2days!

I have discovered i can vote in my old constituency so will head back there after work to vote for Boris' brother.

Sadly I agree with Tim W. - Bercow will hold on too everyone's dismay. Tories may not even be abel to get rid of him unless they get an opposition speaker.

The hype suggesting Balls will lose will prove to be hype too.

Malcolm Tucker said...

Con - 35%
Lab -29%
Lib -28%

cons some 50 short.

Bercow - safe.
Balls - safe
Smith - very dangerous

Bill Quango MP said...

Con 37%
Lab 29%
Lib 25%
other 9%

Con 25 short -

Ed Balls, but has a large scare.
Alistair Darling - safe, but reduced
Hazel Blears - safe, but reduced
Jon Cruddas - unsafe
John Bercow unsafe, but holds
Jacqui Smithunsafe
Phil Woolas unsafe
Bill Rammell - unsafe
Bill Quango - Safe

Botogol said...

This is a great place where you can play with different % and seats.

- LD vote to collapse today, when people actually get into the polling station
- plus Cons support always understated in polls.
- plus a good year for the whacky one-issue parties

Conservative 39.9 (326 seats)
Labour 29.6 (246)
LD 20.7 (51)
Others 9.8 (27)

Ed Balls - Out
Yvette Cooper - Stays
Alistair Darling - Stays
Hazel Blears - Stay
Jon Cruddas - Out
John Bercow Out
Luton South - Stay
Jacqui Smith - Out
Phil Woolas - Out
Bill Rammell - Stays

Savonarola said...

Unslicker I share your pain. Good run in the banks but time to exit.Swing High Sweet Chariot.

Cons will have a majority of about ten. The waverers will mark Cameron to surprise pollsters.

Opik is heading for Limpdick status.

Greece bail-out is an elastoplast. Spain and Portugal next.

Budgie said...

I think I guessed at a Tory majority of 20 a few months ago so will stick by that. Even though it looks rather unlikely now.

Worst in the short term is a Lib-Lab pact government with Brown staying as PM. Shares, Gilts to tank if so. But it might be best long term.

Cameron has chosen not to highlight how bad the cuts will have to be. So, as King says, if the Tories get in, and cut, they will be hated for a generation. Why does Cameron lay himself open to these obvious points (he lost the propaganda war over Lisbon in the same way)?

Mrs Quango using tarot cards to predict said...

Con 34%
Lib 30%
Lab 28%

Balls - out
Blears - in
Smith - out
Bercow - in

Timbo614 said...

I have wetted the seaweed, tossed the tea leaves and shaken the bones. The bones seem to have the word...

Con 39%(underestimated) = 350 ish seats
Lab 24%(overestimated)= 200 ish seats
Lib 26%(Fall off a bit) = 75 ish seats

I really want to see Labour/Brown in particular destroyed, so I may have shaken the bones more than once before I was happy.

P.S. Just voted for your portfolio :)

Letters From A Tory said...

Conservatives will get 303 seats.

Smith is toast. Sadly, Bercow isn't.

Span Ows said...

Conservative working majority of 37 (or 21)...oh yes!

Word verification silli, d'oh!

Nick Drew said...

Cons majority, don't know how big.

Have reckoned this is a '79-er, rather than a '92-er, for quite a while now

Neil the Geordie Postie said...

Con 41%
Lab 25%
Lib 25%
other 9%

Working Majority.
Bercow in.
Esther ..not even close
Blears - out
Rammell - in

Anonymous said...

Hung parliament.

All the way along the mall.

Mrs Dodge said...

Con 35%
Labour 30%
Lib Dem 28%

{just voted for Clegg!}

Mr Dodge said...

Dave - 37%
Gordon - 28%
Nick - 25%
Other -10%

Balls -safe
Bercow - safe
Blears is the Portillo

CityUnslicker said...

Mrs Dodge - Red Card & life ban for voting Lib Dem, no parole.

Miss S-J said...

Con 37%
Lib 29%
Lab 25%

Newmania said...

I see Labour 25% Libs 29% and ...hey I agree exactly with the person just before me . I think this might be the end for the Labour party.

Pleased to see others share my loathing of the little piggy Bercow and his nutty bag lady wife.

Electro-Kevin said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Electro-Kevin said...

Conservative win outright.

At least here anyway. Anne Marie-Morris is a foxy little chick.

Philipa said...

I think Conservative will win by a small majority.

Many smaller parties will do well as they attract protest votes.

BNP website fiasco can't have done them any favours but it won't affect those intending to vote for them who don't live on the net and eat current affairs (I prefer my current affairs with a dash of sauce).

Shame about Nigel Farage - events will make at least one politician not care about the election: he's just glad he's alive!

hatfield girl said...

It's a very high turnout in central London, lots of students here of course and all registered by their halls of residence. I wonder if the Lib Dems are going to be really good at getting their vote out or even knowing where it is in some constituencies, which will give lower real vote totals. Labour seem really to have angered people in a quite personal way. They may get low voter turnout as their former Blair voters decide for none of the above. So, assuming the high turnout is formerly quiescent Tories:
Conservative 40
Libdem 25
Labour 24
(all numbers -ish)

Thumbs down for Ed Balls, Esther, Smith, Woolas, Rammell; Cruddas will have a big personal vote and survive, Darling will be, how to put it? "organised" and survive; the others Blears, Cooper, Bercow have majorities too big for anything less than meltdown.

Bill Quango MP said...

Poll of polls -
So far Capitalists comments predict

Con 37.5
Lab 27
Lib 26

10 point Tory lead. Probably just enough.

final polls had ..

ComRes survey for the Independent Tories 37 per cent
Labour 28 per cent
Lib Dems 28 per cent.

ICM for the Guardian
Tory 36 per cent
Labour 28 per cent
Lib Dems 26 per cent

Tories on 35 per cent.
Labour 28 per cent
Libs 28 per cent

James Higham said...

Lib Dem drop has been a shock.