Tuesday 2 November 2010

James Phillpot's CIPD numbers are 'Nonsense'

MIchael Fallon had some good fun today at the expense of a particularly useless poiticking institute. The CIPD exists to serve the needs of the Human Resources industry, given a huge chunk of what HR do is hire and fire people it was not doubt in its own interests to stoke the fires of action that keep its members employed.

Their Chief Economist quoted widely today with a number of 1.6 million private and public sector jobs to go has not as far as I can see published his report. All we have a is digital press release on the website with a very old picture of him attached to it.

So none of the crazy claims, such as the VAT cut costing 200,000 jobs can be scrutinised. I note he has form too for being very anti-Tory in his blog.

But the best comment of all is that we need an economy growing at over 2.5% per year to generate more than 300,000 jobs - which if we do, then the net job losses are nothing and we have reduced the public sector by a huge chunk and added creative value to the real economy. Even this is wrong, so far this year we have added 241,000 jobs in the UK to August 2010, that on 1.5% growth, so 2.5% would be something nearer 400,000 jobs not 300,000. 2% growth would still be 300,000 jobs.

Poor Mr Philpott, desperate for the numbers to hit his stated target of 2.95 million unemployed by 2012 - somehow his sorry attempts to make the world run to his viewpoints are doomed to failure. I wonder if the dole queue calls for economists who get the basics so wrong?

And horry afor my local MP, Michael Fallon for standing up to this garbaled nonsence.


Mark Wadsworth said...

Yes of course private sector can create more jobs that are 'lost' (see 1990s) in public sector, almost by definition, with a couple of caveats:

1. The observation that 1% VAT = 100,000 unemployed was calculated by a fairly right wing think tank (I forget who) and seems to stack up; and the Tories will merrily press ahead with Labour's 2 x 1% National Insurance hike, which will reduce the size of private sector by another 100,000 jobs or something.

2. And then there's all the EU rubbish that keeps snowing in.

3. Who says that the economy will grow? The Tories seem determined to prop up house prices at all costs, which is inevitably bad for productive private economy.

Andrew B said...

There is quite a good article in the current economist http://www.economist.com/node/17363445?story_id=17363445 on a number of studies that show there is a measurable crowding out effect from government investment.