Tuesday 28 December 2010

How were the 2010 Predicitions?

OK, I have a 60/40 record to defend (it's getting worse each year as he law of averages gets going) for my 4 years of predictions. Last year I had five:

1. FTSE to be up 10% , well just a small sell off would see me right here as I have it just shy of 6000 - pretty sure this will be on the money. Not only that, but the vast majority of commentators thought we would have a losing year.

2. EMED Mining to treble - Hands up a big miss on the share predictions it is about 0% up on the year. Only option is to double or quits on this one. The share, covered earlier here this month, should be set for a great 2011 (oh, dear repeating predictions hoping they come true, is very New Labour).

3.  Oil Price to be stable; this is up quite a bit more than expected, at $90 thank to a Santa Rally. So can't claim this one!

4. UK Politics, only one prediction here; Nigel Farage to lose Buckingham, easy one.

5. Spending Cuts to cause social problems - This has come to pass too, strikes on the Transport network over minor job losses and student riots were definitely widespread disorder.

3/5 - typical!


Steven_L said...

Social problems? That was just the warm-up act. They are planning local dummy-runs in February, preumably to get people motivated, then a full assault on London on 26th March.

I get the impression the organised left aren't planning a nice peaceful 'Stop the War' type march here. They're hoping for something more like the Poll Tax Riots followed by Poll Tax Strike-style mass civil disobedience.

Coalitions are weak governments, they think they can topple it.

Anonymous said...

I suppose it gives the Hunt Saboteurs some new purpose in life.

The trouble with the opposition is that whilst the cuts are disliked, they are not widely perceived as inherently unfair / unbritish as the poll tax was.

I think that the demonstrations so far ( and probably the future ones ) are more like the miners strike than the poll tax.

One other difference between then and now being that we seem to have a lower tolerance of violent disorder - by the demonstrators and the police.