Modesty almost forbids, but then somehow it falters: *ahem*, 5 out of 5 for me. (Smug ? Moi ?)
1. No legally binding global environmental pact. Tick: Cancun was another disappointment for the world-governmentalists. The dangers of this 'legally binding' nonsense are not yet fully behind us, however.
2. Tension between oil-indexed gas prices (rising) and spot price of gas (soft) to go critical, with beneficial consequences. Tick: propelled by the twin forces of recession and shale gas, 2010 was the year Gazprom (against all its shrill rhetoric) was forced to make fundamental concessions in the pricing and contract structure of its long-term gas sales to European buyers. There are more changes to come, I confidently predict, and the benefits of all this will be material (measured in billions, ultimately).
3. Gold to continue its upward trend. Tick: up 23% in both GB£ and US$, and a stonking +35% in the sickly EUR. Even up 12% in the Aussie $. PS I am not a gold bug. But the trend was indeed my friend, (as was the down-tick between May and July).
4. Ed Miliband. Prompted by a comment from one of our excellent Anon's, I'd actually called this one much earlier in 2009, and am rather prouder of that than ...
5. UK to retain AAA. Tick: but it was a no-brainer and I only included it because Dale had predicted we'd lose it. To those who kindly say: but it might have been different - what if Labour had got back, what if the Boy Osborne hadn't been so decisive, etc etc, I reply: any government of whatever stripe would have done what the coalition did. Proof: just how easily the LibDems signed up for the emergency budget. Death in the last ditch before surrendering AAA. Although for completeness we should note that, err, the Chinese downrated us.
If that wasn't enough - 12 months late, along came rentamob to make good on my prediction for 2009 of fighting in the streets.
Oo-err: how do we follow that ? Better sober up for some 2011 prognostications ...