Wednesday 29 December 2010

More Predictions Revisited

Modesty almost forbids, but then somehow it falters: *ahem*, 5 out of 5 for me. (Smug ? Moi ?)

1. No legally binding global environmental pact. Tick: Cancun was another disappointment for the world-governmentalists. The dangers of this 'legally binding' nonsense are not yet fully behind us, however.

2. Tension between oil-indexed gas prices (rising) and spot price of gas (soft) to go critical, with beneficial consequences. Tick: propelled by the twin forces of recession and shale gas, 2010 was the year Gazprom (against all its shrill rhetoric) was forced to make fundamental concessions in the pricing and contract structure of its long-term gas sales to European buyers. There are more changes to come, I confidently predict, and the benefits of all this will be material (measured in billions, ultimately).

3. Gold to continue its upward trend. Tick: up 23% in both GB£ and US$, and a stonking +35% in the sickly EUR. Even up 12% in the Aussie $. PS I am not a gold bug. But the trend was indeed my friend, (as was the down-tick between May and July).

4. Ed Miliband. Prompted by a comment from one of our excellent Anon's, I'd actually called this one much earlier in 2009, and am rather prouder of that than ...

5. UK to retain AAA. Tick: but it was a no-brainer and I only included it because Dale had predicted we'd lose it. To those who kindly say: but it might have been different - what if Labour had got back, what if the Boy Osborne hadn't been so decisive, etc etc, I reply: any government of whatever stripe would have done what the coalition did. Proof: just how easily the LibDems signed up for the emergency budget. Death in the last ditch before surrendering AAA. Although for completeness we should note that, err, the Chinese downrated us.

If that wasn't enough - 12 months late, along came rentamob to make good on my prediction for 2009 of fighting in the streets.

Oo-err: how do we follow that ? Better sober up for some 2011 prognostications ...



Budgie said...

I have looked back at my own predictions which were commented after your post.

I certainly got Cameron to win by 20 wrong, as well as my prediction we would lose the AAA. But I did say that we would not default.

I was right to be pessimistic about Cameron and that he would bottle both the necessary cuts and renegotiation with the EU.

I was also there with the rising cost of borrowing (BoE irrelevant), inflation above 4%, and the Footsie at 6000. And I was pretty close with house prices and oil and gold prices. I also had the faltering Euro and dollar.

What is in store for 2011? Well, I have not finalised but I still think that the biggest problem is where to store wealth. Money is being competitively devalued all round the planet, gold is a one horse bubble, and property is still over priced here. That leaves shares, and they cannot increase for ever.

Nick Drew said...

pretty commendable, budgie, look forward to your full set in due course

Steven_L said...

Short UNG, long gold and Ed for labour leader. Got to be a heathy return there Nick!

My mates $19k down on a margined UNG long but he won't listen to me and close it.

He won't even listen to me and read up on what shale gas or the Henry Hub is, he's one of them commoidites bulls!

Nick Drew said...

you've had a cracking year yourself, Steven - 11/11 must be some sort of record !

(a very desirable sort)

Budgie said...

Oo-er - what on earth is a "short UNG" when it is at home (for us ignoramuses)?

Steven_L said...

UNG - google 'United States Natural Gas Fund' it's an ETF that some cfd providers will let you sell short.