Sunday 2 January 2011

2011 New Year Predictions

OK, so I need to improve on last year's showing and get back to the 70/80% range of accuracy, but without taking simple no risk options:

1. Politics - Labour will establish a big lead in the polls and Ed Milliband will be sen to be doing a good job by the end of the year.

2. Economics - UK Interest rates will rise more slowly than people expect, with rates likely to be at 1.25% by the end of the year.

3. FTSE - After a massive shock when Spain/Portgual force the European nations into a quasi debt union, the stock market will recover to over 6000 and will end the year about 5% up at 6350.

4. Share Sectors - Mining and Oil stocks will continue their boom and defensive shares will fall out of play as dividends fail to match inflation.

5. Banking - The Government banking commission will cause a panic in the Big City banks when it recommends further break-up. However, the Government will not have the political will to enact and the year will end with impasse and uncertainty on this matter.


John M Ward said...

Interesting! We shall check your results twelve months hence :-)

I'm not good enough to make predictions of this nature myself, so am not planning to publish anything so specific as interest rate figures(!)

Oh, and if "Ed Miliband will be sen" does that mean you are predicting he will turn into Hopi Sen...?

Lola said...

No 5 - Sad, but true.

6. 'Inflation' - as in price rises as a result of inflation (aka QE) will continue to be a serious problem, until the bloody gummint and the BBC learn what causes it.

Steven_L said...

I'm really not sure this year. Don't those on the receiving end of CGS and TARF money have to start standing on their own two feet this year?

I agree with Lola and BQ on inflation, although I'm in the school of thought that says Bernanke is trying to start it.

As for interest rates, if they do chase up inflation, what about all these people tracking 3%+ above bank rate?

I'm going to take my cash off the table for now and wait and see what happens. Something's going to happen, I can feel it in my bones!

Budgie said...

Steven_L, I too feel that "Something's going to happen".

For my part I observe that for the past three years the economy has rocked politics. It is now time that politics rocked the economy. Although, I am prone to premature prediction; so it may be a year away.