Sunday 2 January 2011
Predications. Must try harder to make accurate ones. Did well on 'chocolate finger' and Ocado though. You did all stay clear of them, yes?
1. Inflation just won't go away. It will continue to rise, despite the politicians predictions, and will go well over 4% before ending the year at around 3.25%, still above target but the target is a fantasy one anyway..
2. Inflation will force up rates. They go up slowly initially as the recovery is precarious but then faster as they must. Despite the most hawkish calling for 4-5% rates in 2011 they won't manage more than 2.25%, but the trend is always up.
3.The USA finally begins to crawl out of recession. Decent retail and manufacturing numbers leave Europe wondering how they manage to do it. The exception being Germany , who continues to grow steadily, despite another Euro crisis.
4. Even with all the strains of Euro states and banks debt refinancing, defaulting Spain and crumbling Italy no-one can figure out a way to get out of the Euro, so its stitched together with compromise, after compromise after bailout..and just survives 2011.
5. Politics: All the leaders survive. Coalition settles down, despite MPs repeatedly being caught in media stings. In the end, the public reckon they have enough problems of their own, without worrying about who's bitching about whom. David Laws makes it back which gladdens the Tories hearts, as he gets more air time than foot-in-mouth Cable. Constant U-turns seriously undermines the governments credibility by the end of 2011 however, as they cave in too quickly and too often on politically sensitive cuts.
Still, plenty of strikes and mob rampages though..