Thursday 17 March 2011

Japan Crisis / Bahrain Crisis = stasis?

The latest chart of the price of oil makes for interesting reading as the price of it remains under $100 a barrel. This is a big jump up from earlier in the year, but much less than when the Libya crisis started a couple of weeks ago.

Yet this is at a time when Japan has shut its Nuclear facilities as has Germany. These countries are going to need a lot more gas and oil in the next few months. Longer term too, there will be increased pressure on fossil fuels with the review of Nuclear power globally.

This is all before we get to the Shia/Sunni stand-off in the Gulf. Iran and Saudi Arabia are now interfering in Bahrain which looks increasingly unstable. This region of the world is not Libya, it provides a significant percentage of the World's oil.

However, as of today, markets seem to view the downside of economic growth thanks to the Japan catastrophe as more than matching the troubles in MENA. I doubt this situation is going to last...hopefully Japan will get control of its nuclear issue (I keep saying this everyday and it keeps not happening sadly); but the result of this is going to be a big spike in oil prices.


Steven_L said...

"Risk on" and load up on crude then then?

Just have, with Cheltenham on I need my fix.

El Kevo said...

Every crisis creates opportunity.

I thought I'd come here to remind you City boys (and MP) of that truth. I'm back off to continue viewing the You Porn channel if you don't mind.

El Kevo said...

BTW - I'm thinking of diversifying from my unique Learn-a-Note teaching device to selling Monkey Spankers.

Guitarists can then improve their strumming when they get bored of practicing their scales.

El Kevo said...

I am not to be confused with the one they call Electro-Kevin

This is a new blog site entirely.

CityUnslicker said...

ok EK - will look in then!

SL - I have plenty of oil stocks already!

Bill Quango MP said...

As someone who used to solo Telegraph road, Sunday bloody sunday and Bat out of hell I find I can now just about manage
1/2 a buzzing refrain of House of the rising sun.

I used to play about 2-3 hrs a day. Naturally I don't want to do that anymore. About 2 mins would be plenty.
I want guitar wrist/hand/fingers rust remover. Do you sell such a cream?
If not I want a version of what occurred with holly on the red dwarf.

I want to be a genius again.

El Kevo said...

You are a genius. Just in a special way. (In that patronising manner with which they address the remedial kids)

Sieze the moment ! As it's about the only thing you can sieze by the sound of things.


Laban said...

What effect would the disappearance of all their Libyan and Russian assets have on BP?

I'm thinking of buying - but only if the price doesn't have much of a component for those two. I don't think they're going to get much back from either country. Gaddafi will punish Brit firms, and the Russians seem to play hardball with their partners. You'd think BP would have worked it out by now, after TNK.

CityUnslicker said...

Laban - interestingly ND and I are at odds here. he says that the current BP CEO knows everythign about Russia having been chased out of TNK BP and so MUST have doen the new deal with his eyes open.

I still think the Russians will screw 'em. We had a bet for dinner as to who turns out to be right.

Steven_L said...

And just chickened out again, albeit $250 richer.

Laban said...

Did you see John Hempton's post about Libya, where he reckoned the French would do whatever was necessary to protect Total. I admit I scoffed, then came this morning's news. Clever chap he is.

Nick Drew said...

Total managed to retain their working presence in Algeria throughout the colonial wars and after, with complete continuity

the froggies have their little ways

on BP, as well as the Russia thing being part of a plan, I reckon you'll see some other 'bold moves' from them in the coming months

I freely admit they are risky, & they probably do too: but it's a bit like Enron in 1987 - as BP sees it, only a bold stroke or two will get them out of the doo-doo

(of course $150 oil won't harm either - but that's not really taking control of your destiny is it ?)

Nick Drew said...

PS I had better short BP to hedge that dinner ...