No Hot Air. I attended an interesting conference where he spoke this morning.
By way of background, grealy believes in climate change but also sees the huge potential for Shale Gas.
The US is the only country that is really into extracting shale gas. It is more complex than normal extraction as you need chemicals and lots of water to breakdown the rock formations which hold the gas.
However, he posited that it is so successful it he US that it has held down gas prices and caused the de-link between WTI and Brent crude.
More amazingly he described a recent report that identified 5.6 trillion TCF identified resources across the world:
France 180 TCF
Poland 187 TCF
Algeria 213 TCF
Argentina 774 TCF
China 1275 TCF
To put that into perspective, worldwide demand is only 50-60 TCF per year, with Europe at 20.
On this basis it really is a game changer and when the technology is applied to shale oil it will have a similar impact on global oil resources - Grealy is as you would imagine a lot less concerned than many about security of supply and peak oil.
All good so far, but the really interesting piece to me was the impact of Geo politics, outside the US everyone is against Shale:
Environmental concerns, hugely out of proportion, are a cover for lots of reasons not to be happy. Centrica and gazprom don't want to see cheap prices for their good, nuclear proponents hate it, OPEC hates it, Russia sees it revenues under threat, UK energy policy would have to change so our Government hate it, Greenpeace hate it.
In France (80% nukes and 10% hydro) all the political parties are against shale exploitation and there is a motion to ban extraction; maybe this will lead Europe down this path?
In any event the US is soon going to become a large exporter of Shale NG and this is great news fro consumers. Grealy went to far as to suggest with shale oil people might be paid to take excess gas away ($4 boe) to get at the oil ($100 boe).
Anyway, great listening and an interesting insight into a global changing development. San Leon are a small aim explorer in Poland who are looking to develop shale and I will research them a bit further. In the long-term the likes of BG and Centrica in the UK are looking at difficult times unless the lobby Government hard enough to stop this non-subsidised cheap energy from being extracted.
So, is he right about all this?