Monday, 11 July 2011

Euro Italian Crisis in July/August?

A quick note, this is all over the papers, the markets are reacting badly, everything seems to be in jeopardy across the Eurozone...but really?

A crisis just before everyone knocks off for a month in Europe - I don't buy it. Come back in September.

12 comments:

Sean said...

Any chance of a short delay and rescheduling euro Armageddon for the first week of October? I am sailing around the turquoise coast in Sept.

I think first we will have to see how good a poker player Barry thinks he is.

Anonymous said...

If the Euro is bad trouble the pound must be in bigger trouble a few days ago it edged up to 1 Euro=90pence,

Demetrius said...

The pre-condtions are in place for some kind of collapse/chaos. There are a number of candidates of which this is a serious one. But which will it be?

Anonymous said...

probably a "Shock-and Awe" printing ahead.

Nick Drew said...

anon@12:50

too right. I have been selling in unhedged EUR all year and it's been the right call thus far ...

my current programme runs to mid aug: I may reconsider then

Anonymous said...

I have a nasty feeling that WW1 broke out over summer, the phoney war, etc.
Sometimes massive historical change can happen while you're having a few days off. That's the way it goes.

Budgie said...

Everyone seems to me to be vastly underestimating the sheer ruthless will to power of the EU elite. I am reminded of the 'Wizard of Id' (cartoon strip). The King of Id is speaking: "Some of you will die defending the Euro (actually Id); and it is a sacrifice I am prepared to make."

The Euro elite by-passed national parliaments and referendums to impose their Maastricht and Lisbon treaties, and then ignored those very 'laws' to set up a Euro rescue fund. Rather than let their pet project, and their power, dwindle before their eyes they will set up full fiscal and political union. It is what they have been after for years anyway.

Yes, I accept Greece is bankrupt and the rest (the PISS?) are in dire trouble precisely because they are in monetary union. I really would like the eurozone to break up, but it didn't happen a couple of weeks ago, and I don't think it will happen just yet. Maybe the EU elite cannot stop it, but they will have a damn good try.

Budgie said...

Sorry, I seem to have taken the PIIS.

measured said...

I am more concerned about the $. Buy HK$ and yuan. Btw it's July and UK interests remain unchanged. :-)

andrew said...

My personal Euro crisis is that we cannot go there until the dog passports are fully in place and that is not until after school hols end.

On the markets reacting badly, I recommend Steve Keen / Dude! Where’s My Recovery? where (probably badly explaining) he thinks the QE of any sort is not too useful, the only answer is to write down existing debt (private and public) on a massive scale (explicitly, not through inflation) otherwise we are in a lot of asset/currency volatility for the next decade or so.

I think we all overuse the word, excuse me whilst I solve my coffee crisis.

Blue Eyes said...

Isn't the Italian problem rather different to the Greek problem, in that Italy mostly owes the money to itself. More of a Japan than an Ireland?

Where is this all heading? A massive multi-lateral default for Europe? Hyper-inflation?

Electro-Kevin said...

I agree with Budgie. The News of the World debacle is catastrophic for us at this stage.

The momentum will build for the free press to be muzzled - the impetus from various sources, including the EU which cannot further itself with investigative journalism in existence.

I always thought "With a press free to speak its mind we haven't quite got there yet."

Now it feels as though it could just be around the corner.

If so we will find ourselves more and more impoverished - our grandchildren (if not our children) may well live in fear of gulags.