Wednesday 24 August 2011

August 2011 Trading Update - gulp...

For some unknown reason I can't seem to upload my portfolio sheet to blogger today so I will do it in text form.

Basically, wow, is it gory. Main holdings this year are GKP, EMED and XEL. All of them have been smashed to pieces during the market volatility of the last 6 months. EMED is down about 25% from the beginning of the year (but over 50% from its highs), XEL about 60% and GKP 30%. Then my other smaller holding like Ascent and Xtract are also worse off, with Caza the winner had a mammoth 66% off its high and my worst ever buy. Only recently bought Chariot is up at all on the year.

However, partly due to the losses coming too quickly I have held on given that my strategy is to hold event driven shares, may as well wait for the events. This bit gives me hope:

EMED - Final permitting for their Spanish mine is due in September, as usual, there will be a delay, but the share price could easily double on the permitting news and in a better market would treble.
GKP - Have found another mere 4 billion barrels of oil this year whilst their share price has sunk. The key here is the Iraqi Oil law that will allow them to export and understand the price they will receive for their oil. Once this passes (and it has been nearly 2 years now....) the company will quickly be snapped up in a bidding war. Again potential for 100-300% upside from here.
XEL - this one I did get very wrong, XEL is waiting for DECC approval to begin operating the field they discovered in the North Sea last year. The shareprice has been hammered, down 70% from its all time high. However, with approval and a move to production a doubling or even trebling of the price is not beyond the bounds - but it will be 6 months yet.
AST (Ascent)- Great news this week that their onshore find is the largest onshore gas field in Europe. Company currently valued at less then £20 million. Huge buying opportunity really as the fraccing to get flow rates is about to start so confirmatory news will be end of September.
CHAR (Chariot) - Having finally found some JV partners, the exploration of their potentially huge fields off Africa has at last started. If the seismics are correct the company will be a big success in 2012. Have bought in at a low price having sold last year into it strength.
CAZA - Huge market over-reaction to a duster, still 3 wells about to announce commercial flow rates (albeit small in the grander scheme of things) should help the shareprice double from where it is today before year end.
XTR - Currently suspended pending a merger, drilling in the North Sea in September, quite make or break for the company although the merger will give it financial strength for a couple of years. Share price is 2.7p, any joy in drills and it could be 30p - so not one to invest a fortune in as even a small sum may eventually make great returns.

So in summary, pants. Portfolio value back to where it was last September having been more than double that in Feb this year. However, long-term plenty of good news to come at the share level - however macro issues might overshadow all.


Sebastian Weetabix said...

What's the old saw - "sell in May & go away". Every year I forget to do this & nearly every year I re-learn it is true.

My portfolio is so f***ed I am not even going to look at it until mid-September . All my share purchases must now be considered "strategic" (like any bad management decision that loses money).

Demetrius said...

The Bank of America situation is increasingly interesting. Watch this space, but don't buy the stock.

Anonymous said...

Is this your risky portfolio, or your total portfolio? If it's the latter, then I think you need a few less risky ones in their.
I can suggest V.RIO, which is the one I bought last year, first production numbers from the new mine are out in a few weeks, it should go up 80% or so by October.

CityUnslicker said...

Anon - many thanks, I don't do unrisky, I only do over the edge crazy risk. Unrisky with inflation at 5% probably means you lose money slowy. Much as I am depressed at losing 100% of last years gains, am stil up nearly 1000% over 5 years.
Can't defend my choices or selection this year - its terrible...but I figure if you have the odd 40% down year amongst the 80%+ years then on balance this will be OK.
Thus in many ways my individual stock positions are the same, I know of all the above one or two will blow up - but that is OK as I only need one or two to go stratospheric and the losses become irrelevant.

Having said all that, I am really nervous about Sept/Oct as if the Euro collapses et al then I am looking at another 30% off from here which will be painful - two whoel years profits gone!

Sean said...

Sounds like you need a bailout:0)

It seems like you are in MadGafs position of having money in Unicredit and Eni, one is going to fail.

Zirconium should insure yourself against the wretched Euro implosion whenever that is. I have guarded yard full of old copper boilers I want to get rid off if you have space?

Budgie said...

Sorry, I've said this before, but I really want the euro to collapse (in an orderly fashion of course), but I do not think it will do so just yet. The situation is not extreme enough, the EU politicians are still totally wedded to it, and there are still tricks for them to play.

So I would not worry about a euro collapse in the next year or so, CU. I do think that Sarkozy/Merkel will make the UK pay, and Cameron will be out manoeuvred.

As you say these shares are event driven, though the general sentiment will depress the payoff. However, even my "non-risky" share have gone down. Yet I have been a fund and share buyer in the last month or so.

Richard Elliot said...

My funds are down ~10% this year and individual stock picks have lost ~40%, which confirms I'm not a good stock picker!

I definitely don't want the Euro to collapse as I don't think it can be done in an orderly way and will cause mayhem. Another global recession would be an almost certainty.