Saturday, 31 December 2011

2011 Predictions - another donught


Ah bless, I looked back to see how my predictions went for this year, Ed Miliband doing well, commodities booming, the FTSE ending higher - boy was I in the Christmas spirit last year!

Now once upon a time I had a very good record here, with 60%-80% of these macro predictions coming good. Too much drinking and merriment last year and hoping the worst was over. This year will be very different - as well as being thoroughly depressed after a disastrous year, the end to our woes seems further away than ever.

I'll come back with predictions on New Year's Day.

How did yours go? I note the comments to my predictions by Budige and Steven_L were quite prescient - I should pay more attention to my intellectual superiors in the future!


Budgie said...

Thank you for those kind words, CU.

I have one serious prediction for 2012. I have written it before and elsewhere.

The euro will not collapse.

The EU has just replaced two democratically elected presidents by fiat. Yes, read that again. The EU has flexed its muscles and imposed two EU dictators. And there has been hardly a squeak of protest.

I suspect the EU hardly dared believe it would get away with it. When it recovers from its surprise, the EU now has carte blanche to do anything to ensure the survival of the euro.

So strong is the EU (and its euro) that it will brush the snide, weak, dim, delusional, inept Cameron aside with ease. There is much more danger that the UK will be sucked into the eurozone than that the euro will collapse.

I sincerely hope I am wrong.

Steven_L said...

Taking the cash off the table was actually a bad, alcohol-influenced move on my part CU.

The cash was heavily levered long on Exxon Mobil and Lockheed Martin, and was supposed to stay there.

In the event they have coughed up more than enough divis to fund the leverage and are 10% (or 50% with the leverage) up.

I then proceeded to make a brilliant call on silver (at around $30/oz before the massive spike) levering up to $12,000 worth. I closed this position the night after I opened it - drunk again - missing out on a potential $7,000 win on the silver spike.

Then I lost some money on Xcite Energy and corn futures. In the end my cfd account ended 25% down and I took the £600 left out and bought some clothes instead.

For 2012, I have £750 in a spread betting account that is currently about 2% up (£764) and my NY resolution is not to open or close any trades if I am drunk.

I actually feel quite bullish about stocks for 2012, I think they represent good value and that France and Southern Europe are successfully bending the Germans toward a policy of monetisation.

Steven_L said...

PS. Save those gold buyers I told you about (was it Xmas 2009?) in the pub Xmas Eve.

One driving a £200k Bentley, the other a brand new Lambo!

More gutted I didn't quit work and get into that game than about the missed spread betting opportunities.

Electro-Kevin said...

Nice one, Budgie.

I bet you're right.

Happy New Year, ya all.

Anonymous said...

Hmm, the bulls capitulating and expecting disaster. A bottom signal indeed! :)