Sunday 1 January 2012

2012 Predictions - Cityunslicker

Five for this year year - given last years  0 for 5 effort I am going double or quits:

1 - Oil price will rise rapidly as Iran causes more and more problems directly and via Iraq - maybe end the year over $120.

2 - The UK Government is at the mercy of events, a bad run in Europe and the Coalition will be in trouble with a possible election - only that will reset us to the same position as today with the Tories as the largest party in a hung parliament.

3 - Greece will fall out of the eurozone and cause another phase of the current crisis.

4 - China will finally show signs of the bursting of its economic miracle, the over-investment of the past few years will come home as demand slackens with property prices crashing and unemployment increasing - this in turn will cause big trade issues as excess goods are dumped on the world market.

5- This in turn will help to reduce inflation globally, but balanced by the oil price rise. UK inflation will fall back from its highs, but not to where most analysts say at 2-3% - more like 3.5% for the year - still way above pay settlements.


Anonymous said...

Hmm, IMHO these are linear extrapolations of current worrying situations.

I'd be anticipating 'black swan' events in 2012, as the Western socio-economic model fails unpredictably.

James Higham said...

Bit heavy for Jan 1, CUS. :)

Budgie said...

Here's my try .....

1. The euro will be here this time next year and less in crisis; peripherals will continue to effectively default but probably remain inside the eurozone;

2. The eurozone will be in recession;

3. European banks will be in frequent trouble - there will be collapses, mergers and nationalisations;

4. Cameron will continue to be vapid, dim, ineffectual and outmanoeuvred by the EU; money wasted on euro bailouts (mainly via the IMF), and CAGW (high energy costs and generation crisis), so the UK will be in recession, and end up considerably weaker; increasingly likely that the UK will join the euro;

5. UK CPI about 4%; FTSE will reach 6000; house prices down 5%, except London; interest rates to stay low unless UK downgraded (quite likely);

6. Oil, gold and commodities will be very volatile, but relatively high priced, because of the political uncertainties;

7. BRICs will continue to grow but more slowly; China will continue its Africa expansion, and purchases of Western companies;

8. The USA will have pre-election growth (2%), and Obama will get a second term (God help us);

9. There will be serious "incidents" but no war between USA and Iran; it is more likely that Israel and NK/SK will be hotspots;

10. The "Arab spring" will result in repressive Islamist states.

Budgie said...

Then again, we could leave the EU, the euro and the EU could collapse, CAGW could be exposed as the hoax it is, Cameron could be thrown out as useless, Direct Democracy could be introduced in the UK, the BBC could be sold off, DfID could be shut down. I wish.

Anonymous said...

English will be banned in UK schools.
Votes will be sold on the open market.
Saving money will be regarded as a treasonous activity.
Saudi arabia will buy Ireland.

Steven_L said...

Just one this year:

The FTSE 100 will stay above 4,500 all year and the best way to make money while everyone remains so afraid is to write options that it will do.

Anonymous said...

CBRN attack at the Olympics and/or Jubilee. Enabling powers from Legislative and Regulatory Reform Act 2006 taken, Parliament suspended, habeas corpus abolished etc.

andrew said...

in every horror film there is a segment in the middle where some bad things have happened, but everyone tries to get on with their lives as normal (while some slightly unsettling things occur that only the 20-something herothing is concerned about).
this is 2012

in the spirit of the qt rule of 5

ftse 100will end up at about 6000 (what it was jan 11)
-having said that we will start to refer to the 250 or all share as the 100 is now banks and miners
there will be volatility but not as much as last year (low 4600,high 6600)
inflation will fall as per the boe projection if not more (!)
the euro will remain intact by a process of austerity measures whether the country's citizens vote for it or not and money printing whether the germans like it or not.
no black swans this year - obama may win,iranian navy boats may be sunk,n. korea may fall,chinese economy may stutter - all has been widely trailed. no black swan could be seen as a black swan itself :-)

alan said...

1. There will be a public inquiry related to the Olympics. Probably something benign, like transportation chaos leading to spectators missing events.

2. The UK economy will perform badly, but the income boost from the Olympics will mask the worst of it.

3. The MoD will have a huge and very public argument with the DECC about renewables not being able to power the armed forces. The DTI might also join in the debate about freight transport.

4. A large wikileaks type data dump related to banking and/or a major economy.

5. The world will not end in 2012.