Tuesday 13 December 2011

The die is cast for UK and EU

This morning's statement from President Barroso marks an interesting development - expected, but interesting.

Barosso, unsurprisingly, is highly critical of the UK for not signing up and tries to use Cameron's defence of the City and the single market against him. Not surprisingly either, French, German and Lib Dem MEP's rounded on Britain as splitters and blamed the City for causing the financial crisis.

Sadly, this marks a new low point in Britain's EU relations. In fact, the only way back from here is for the UK to hope the Euro does collapse, so that in time its stand will be seen as sensible and forward-thinking compared to the hysterical reactions of the French right-wing politicians currently.

Luckily, this is now the likely scenario for next year. It is very likely that at least Greece will fall out of the new agreement and so 26 become 25...and from there my crystal ball shows me no more, but more trouble there will be.

In addition, a new French Government may not quite see the need to election bash the British in the same way and nor will a new German Government.

Cameron really could have played his cards better, but an ambush it was and we are where we are. 2012 will be interesting - especially if the Euro elite get their due comeuppance.


Steven_L said...

Germany will end lumbered with the rest of them - the time to short bunds is approaching methinks!

Anonymous said...

The fiasco really is laughable.

They could have dropped the Tobin tax out of the proposals if they were really that keen to see Britain sign up to their Stability and Growth MkII package. They were playing a game all along. The question is only "to what end?"

They are starting to look as if they actually WANT the EU to fail. Why? Merkozy and Cameron are right-wing politicians who have tended to use nationalism in the past to win power. Maybe their nationalism goes deeper than we think? Maybe what they are trying to do is FORCE the EU towards complete failure to bring its socialist structure down and ensure it can never recover, without actually looking as if any one of them is responsible. They wanted Cameron to veto these proposals so time would once again be wasted and so they put forward proposals that could only be vetoed. Cameron wanted to be in a position to veto these proposals in a manner that even Labour would be forced to support. The idea that Britain should raise any kind of tax to pay for debts run up by the EZ was preposterous from the start - they must all have known that.

Games are being played here for sure. These people know what tools can be used to resolve this debt crisis, but are studiously avoiding reaching for those tools. They are instead playing for time when they all know that the longer they delay the more certain EU failure becomes.

They want the EU to fail, so now nothing will stop it from failing.

dearieme said...

I doubt it'll stop at 25 - surely some parliaments and plebiscites will say "no"?

Nick Drew said...

Cameron really could have played his cards better, but an ambush it was and we are where we are

that is exactly right, CU

the key sentiment now is the traditional one: ambush me once, shame on you ...

Weekend Yachtsman said...

I don't know if they want the EU to fail, but they seem to want us out.

How can we encourage them?

Or do they perhaps think that some sort of backlash will now occur, leading to the fall of Cameron's regime, to be replaced by a "technocrat" (Kinnock? Mandelson? Heseltine? Clarke?) who would be more pliable to their will?

Now THERE'S a terrifying thought!

hovis said...

My tuppence worth? on teh one hand there is the political mindset that doesnt understand. On the other the centralising influence requires things get REALLY bad, to justify whatever they intend. The power grab will be then not before.

Said it before but Cameron is still pro very EU, he is just kak-handed and finds himself in apostion he never intended...

Sean said...

Nope, when in doubt get your shite throwin' in early put the opposition off. We are more sure of our position they cant be sure of theirs in any form.

I notice Hollende is saying he is going to be renegotiating, and bringing forth eurobonds, you could not make this stuff up.

Sebastian Weetabix said...

It seems obvious to me. The Germans want the Euro to fail (or at least they want to see weaker nations drop out, just like the Bundesbank did to us and the Italians over the ERM) and they don't want their dabs on the dagger. Same story for the Frogs...Sarkozy doesn't want a new treaty as he cannot afford to be seen surrendering more power to Brussels/Berlin - he also can't persuade the Germans to go along with Eurobonds, so what better than an easy lob for Cameron to smash into the net - blame it all on la perfide Albion, and everyone's a winner. Curious that the Rolls-Royce alpha plus brains of the FCO didn't see this coming.

CityUnslicker said...

SW - That is my conclusion - setting us up as the scapegoat.

Germany is happy with how things are right now, low inflation, low bunds, the PIIGS re-adjusting whilst German industry is powered on by cheap borrowing and rising domestic demand. It is only the future that is worrying.

As it happens their banks are even more corrupt and buggered than ours and that will finish them off - as a precaution against this they can now squarely blame the City Branches of their Banks and Our regulation.

It's quite clever and even better there is a grain of truth at the centre of the deceit.

measured said...

They don't want us out. We are not on the agenda. The reality was that they never thought Cameron would veto. He had made such noises about being supportive and they certainly were not going to give him concessions. That would have set a bad precedent. Sarkozy should have shaken his hand. Angela will have to have words to him about that.

No one wants the euro to fail. Germany just wants to make as much hay as it can while the 'sun' shines. However so much In European financial institutions is being artificially propped up, I wonder how long this can go on for. No one wants the counterparty risk. Resentment is growing.

Well done, Cameron btw. He did precisely the right thing. He should let others do the talking now so no one cannot predict his next move (nice post on this C@W). I laugh at how the Americans try to blame us for the 2008 crash and then stir to say we will be isolated. What poppycock. English is our native language after all and we are the second largest contributor to the EU

It will all end in tears but I think they are wise enough to avoid hyperinflation caused by printing money. Avoid bank balances all in one basket.

Has anyone found Nick yet?